Hidden Fates Value Over Time

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I was wondering what you guys think will happen with Hidden Fates? More specifically I was wondering how the sealed product (pin collection, elite trainer box, pokeball collection) and specific cards (shiny GXs for example) will evolve over time. A couple facts about the set make it really hard for me to make a prediction.

On one hand, my gut tells me that the Elite Trainer Box will be sold out almost instantly (that Legendary Birds GX look soooo good) and that the price will rise quickly (kinda like the Dragon Majesty trainer box). Also since this is one of those “mini-sets”, packs will not be readily available (since there wont be no booster boxes) and the ETB is the product containing the most packs, I feel like people trying to get a lot of packs will go to the ETB. And finally, I contacted my local distributor and saw that the Hidden Fates ETB are already sold out

But on the other hand, the shiny cards in the set are all Alternate Arts and most cards will have rotated out of standard by the time the set comes out. So the cards that were competitively strong (and therefor had extra value) wont have that anymore.

All things considered, I still preordered 2 ETB from my local TCG store and I’m planning on opening one and holding on to the other. Do you guys think that I wanted to know what you guys think will happen to Hidden Fates down the road?

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Hidden fates will be one of few newer products that I’ll be investing into. I’ve ordered 3 ETBs and plan to keep 1 sealed. They are now sold out everywhere. Does Pokémon tcg purposely restrict printing on these sets? Either way, it ticks all the boxes for me and I think this could be the best set in a while.

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Pull rate on the shiny pokemon will determine a lot. Also, the playable stuff like cynthia, malamar, etc… will drop off some when they rotate out. More of a collector/deck bling set so hard to say how well it will do.

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I don’t see the value changing much over time. Shining Legends was one of the best modern sets and you can still find the ETBs for $40-45.

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I think you’ll still find it shoved in the back of retail gift boxes 3 years from now

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@charizandrew, @pkmnflyingmaster, Yeah Shining Legends is still available but Dragon Majesty is much harder to find at release price. Do you guys think that this is because the set had more competitive cards?

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If it ends up being like generations or shining legends, the other two similar special sets, then it’s not worth investing in.

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I’m having a hard time not feeding into the hype myself tbh. Realistically though you can still readily find every product from the last three mini sets at retail price online. The only exception I can think of is the Generations ETB which has been at $80ish for around 2 years now.

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If English released this 2-3 months after Shiny GX it would have been much more exciting. 9-10 months later is too long.

Every single english release of a successful japanese mini set has done worse over time: CP6/Evolutions, Pokekyun/Generations, JP Shining Legends/English Shining Legeds, BOXY/whatever it is in English. Unless for some reason Hidden Fates is unprecedentedly super scarce, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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Tough to call but historically any set with a Shiny Charizard over time has commanded a premium. The regular hyper rare version goes for $900 as a PSA 10, imagine what the shiny will sell for. It does suck from a collector standpoint that two of the best cards are promos though.

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Which 2? The ones in the ultra and great ball set?

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Shiny Rayquaza and the Stained Glass Legendary Birds from the Premium Powers Collection and the ETB.

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There is the counter-argument of cheaper cards being more accessible to most collectors. I find having some cards with really great art cheap great for collectors who cannot fork out $100 every time a new product is released. There is enough expensive cards in Pokemon already so having some cheaper promos definitely changes things a bit for every collector. I know I am getting one of the glass stained legendaries :grin:

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I feel like a lot of people are going to invest because it has a zard in it. I think people need to keep in mind is that not all zards are created equal: looking at you Evolutions and generations Charizard.

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Possibly faster then my turds that fall in the toilet, lol jk but I had too…

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Elite Trainer Boxes have fascinated me for a while, but I never got around to doing this until now. I’m super excited for Hidden Fates and I know for sure I will be sitting on a couple of sealed ETBs. I wanted to make a rough snapshot pricing guide to get a better idea about how past boxes have increased in price, or not. This is just some quick numbers I threw together using only Ebay current and sold listings.

Set Date of Release Last sold Current BIN

Plasma Storm Feb. 6th, 2013 NA $410

Plasma Blast Aug. 14th, 2013 $100 $99.00

XY Base Feb. 5th, 2014 $135 $140

Furious Fists Aug. 13th, 2014 $119.99 $135

Phantom Forces Nov. 5th, 2014 $284.90 $162.98

Primal Clash Feb. 4th, 2015 NA $119.94

Roaring Skies May 6th, 2015 B/O from $86.88 $75.44

Ancient Origins Aug 12th, 2015 $43.11 $56.13

BREAKthrough Nov. 4th, 2015 $39.99 $35.00

BREAKpoint Feb. 3rd, 2016 $27.99 $33.58

Generations Feb. 22nd, 2016 ~$90-$109 $97.90

Fates Collide May 2nd, 2016 $34.99 $33.24

Steam Siege Aug. 3rd, 2016 $44.99 $54.45

Evolutions Nov. 2nd, 2016 $49.95 $49.99

Sun &Moon Base Feb. 3rd, 2017 $34.99 $34.99

Guardians Rising May 5th, 2017 $32.99 $29.95

Burning Shadows Aug. 4th, 2017 $39.99 $34.07

Shining Legends Oct. 6th, 2017 $49.95 $40.67

Crimson Invasion Nov. 3rd, 2017 $29.95 $29.95

Ultra Prism Feb. 2nd, 2018 $40.00 $36.19

Forbidden Light May 4th, 2018 $44.95 $34.99

Celestial Storm Aug. 3rd, 2018 $33.00 $45.57

Dragon Majesty Sept. 7th, 2018 $51.64 $42.95

Lost Thunder Nov 2nd, 2018 $34.95 $34.95

Team Up Feb. 1st, 2019 $41.95 $33.00

Unbroken Bonds May 3rd, 2019 $34.99 $34.99

Overall it would seem that a majority of boxes halfway back into 2015 have seen very little growth, or are still less than the $39.99 MSRP. I think the earlier 2013/2014 boxes may be at those prices because they might actually be rare. There are only a couple of listings for each box available.

I also think that maybe in general, enough time just hasn’t passed since Elite Trainer Boxes existed to know whether or not investing in them would be worth it. The big numbers are only for boxes at about the 5 year mark, and that only currently includes a handful of sets.

I think I’ll be happy to have one Hidden Fates ETB sealed for my personal collection, and a backup in case it takes off down the road, but oh boy, it might be a while.

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There are some pretty critical responses here, but I’ll throw my hat in the other direction. Let’s break it down by each point.

Regarding Comparisons:

I’ll just take @smpratte 's list as he had the most comprehensive mention.

Evolutions: While Evolutions wasn’t a mini-set in the United States, it had phenomenal success. Despite being printed to oblivion, there continues to be demand and opportunity for the M Charizard EX inside. That is: the highest PSA POP report of ALL TIME for a modern card is STILL being purchased on eBay. Also, knowing your market is important. Has anyone looked at the prices these boxes are going for in the UK, for example? I was one of the most cynical about this set and I still don’t think it was the best place to put your money at that time, but there was opportunity in the set. The aptest crossover to Hidden Fates is probably the M Charizard EX single. Seeing that depth of interest in graded, modern Charizards is super relevant, as the obvious gem in the Hidden Fates set is the shiny Charizard GX.

Generations: The opportunity in Generations was on release. ETBs of Generations spiked to $80 shortly after the set was released. This was a $30 distributor cost/$50 MSRP set, exactly the same as Hidden Fates. This was the first set we ever saw spike like this and the first true 5th/mini set in the US. This jump happened despite having almost no chase cards inside. Long term, there hasn’t been additional growth. But the initial opportunity was still there.

Shining Legends: This set is literally gold. It has not stopped performing since it was released. The set was much better stocked when compared to Generations. ETBs still move in the $50 range and loose packs still earn $4-5, compared to core set packs that drop to $2.50-$3.00 shortly after release and don’t recoup. That’s outperforming the standard sets by double. I don’t know how this set could be looked at as a dud in the slightest. PSA 10 Mewtwo GX is over $100. PSA 10 Shining Rayquaza goes for $35-50 regularly (That’s a $5 card raw, btw). The 9s are still liquid, the 10s are still relatively liquid. What core set can say that? I have made thousands and thousands of dollars on Shining Legends singles. Literally just buying them at shows and stores when they’re gem mint, grading them, and throwing them online.

Best of XY: This set was a dud for value, but it also wasn’t a set. Just a gift box. The collective value of the singles inside is still worth the breakdown price of the product, but there isn’t much opportunity here. Really, for looking at Hidden Fates, BoXY and Evolutions should be excluded.

Regarding Value Over Time:

I think it is critical to understand that time value is not the only way to invest in a set. You only use holding when you are convinced that the future value is where the opportunity is. I recommend starting every conversation with yourself like this: “Where is the opportunity with the item I’m considering?”

Sometimes, the answer will be never. Unless you have a distributor license, a majority of products will be like this. Even with distributor prices (which are overrated, btw), probably a third of Pokemon core set releases have no opportunity in and of themselves. But the opportunity isn’t two dimensional. Is it in sealed or singles? Graded or ungraded? Sold today or sold in the future? Sold in my country or sold elsewhere? Value over time is something that always has to be looked at, but you’re shooting yourself in the foot if it is all you look at.

Hidden Fates requires the same questions. Anyone saying you won’t be able to make dumb money on an early-to-market PSA 10 Shiny Charizard GX is smoking something. Long term? Hard to say. PSA Rainbow Rare Charizard GX has gone up with time. PSA 10 Reshiram/Charizard GX has gone down with time. Which is it more like? We probably need to see the condition on them. There’s also the chance that the pull rates are remarkably low, given the nature of the high ultra rare count and limited pack slots. However, the rarer the Charizard pull is, the worse the chances are that the single will influence the sealed price. If it is 1 in 128 ETBs, no one is going to pay a huge premium on ETBs in 2 years to try to pull it.

Regarding Introduction of Hidden Fates to Future Products:

There is no precedent at all that a 5th set is going to be introduced to core retail boxes. Even if there is a surplus, they have stuck to the shorter printing period for all 5th sets and have not created new retail products to move them. So that’s a pretty baseless projection.

General Hype:

Maybe E4 doesn’t feel hyped for Hidden Fates, but every single person I know that took preorders (talking at least a dozen people) had to cut those preorders after allocation. I don’t know anyone that isn’t sold out. The hype is there and it is strong. Everywhere but E4, people are talking about Hidden Fates and are excited. Especially for the Shiny Charizard GX. We don’t know, yet, if the pin boxes are the only over-allocated product. It is possible they’ll have a billion extra ETBs. I don’t think that is super likely, but it is possible. The best time to buy has never been as a preorder, though, for these sets. So don’t be afraid to wait and see.

Regarding Investing Mentality:

If you’re going to invest in Pokemon, you have to step a lot further back. You can’t take any given item and ask “Is this worth investing in?” You have to look at every given item and ask, “What is the best investment?” You can search my articles online and post history here and see that I am claiming this as my catchphrase, but it just never stops being relevant: “The question is not if something is a good investment, but rather, if something is the BEST investment.” @khairis makes a compelling argument that ETBs are generally not the best investment.

TLDR:

I think I’ve made a compelling case that there is opportunity, but not all opportunities are equal. You should look at your budget, your interests, your goals, and a bunch more stuff before deciding whether this is the right opportunity for you. Hidden Fates isn’t going to be “the next 1st edition base set,” but it’s a set with a LOT going for it so far. It doesn’t deserve the dismal response that I think it got so far in this thread, but I don’t think it’s a dumb set to look at and see opportunity and get curious about.

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Generations jump in price was purely because of the Jolteon card. It was extremely playable and at the time only the Mew box existed, so that was the only way to obtain them. Of course once the celebi and subsequent boxes were released the prices on everything did nothing but drop. Most Regionals vendors sell them today at cost, 3 years later.

I’m all for people getting excited for modern sets, but numbers don’t lie. Don’t treat English modern as anything other than having fun. So far growth in modern English is an argument from exception. It’s about striking first or at the right time, which is more strategic flipping rather than investing. Even the best case scenario is a lot of strategy/effort for a negligible gain. Where all the examples I gave above of Japanese boxes growing incrementally with time is investing (buying and holding). Pokekyun boxes alone if bought and held are 4-5 times higher today; Generations product hasn’t moved. CP6 has tripled; evolutions is the same price as release.

If you really want to invest in modern English, take whatever money you were going to buy on product and put it into the stock market and just enjoy the sets. From Evolutions release in 2016, any blue chip stock or index fund would have given you a better result.

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My original comment was probably just flippant nonsense and what you say here is a more nuanced truth.

I will stand behind my original intended point though. These cards will be EASILY available for years. If someone wants to buy some ETBs with the intention of just waiting until they become scarce like wotc boxes today, you will be waiting for a longggg time. This strategy was implied by the OP since they were interested that the etb was “sold out”. If the past is any indicator of the future, these boxes will be available to anyone who wants one and more than enough left over.

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Sure. I don’t disagree with that assessment. I just felt like the thread lacked a lot of the logic that exists between someone seeing opportunity with the set and putting together a broader strategy.

I think OP has sensible conclusions they are working with. But I hopefully showed why opportunity isn’t the same as choosing the best long-term investment.

Identifying opportunity is step 1. And it’s a huge step. But step two is comparing opportunities and step 3 is selecting on that’s right for you. I feel like often times, we see someone on E4 operating at a step 1 level, then dismiss them because their conclusions dont satisfy steps 2 and 3. We have to slow down and show more of the middle conclusions and assumptions more often.

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