Pre 2020, impossible within the next 15/20 years in my opinion.
But Pre 2025 (todays market) - Yes, hands down, during the pandemic a ton of people were confident prices wouldnt drop, and the crash was insanely cruel on some cards.
I honestly expect a retrace at one point, and i feel like that point is going to be prior 30 aniversary.
I generally agree!
Just to add to the conversation though (because I find the topic interesting)
In the COVID pump/crash it was largely WOTC. WOTC has orders of magnitude more supply than stuff like gold stars. And XY/B&W have notoriously terrible print quality to counter the very high supply.
I think the retracement will be a different animal this time around but it’ll still happen
Do we agree that modern is funding the insane vintage sales? If so, then the first set that Pokemon is able to print to demand, the fuel to the fire is cut off instantly.
If modern is funding insane vintage sales, then wouldn’t modern be concurrently decreasing/stalling in value? Feels like a lot of modern has actually outpaced vintage, tbh. Haven’t seen evidence that people are re-allocating modern profits into vintage at a large enough scale to be impactful.
Most of the cabal is using modern to fund vintage
Even so, not sure how representative the cabal is of the broader market. The broader modern market looks extremely frothy to me.
As mind boggling as some of these BW/XY gem mint sales are, the low pop at least helps me to rationalize them.
What’s the market like for 8’s, 9’s or raw though, if you’re familiar?
I don’t have much point of reference, the mid era stuff never did anything for me.
I only have the basic knowledge for DP/XY/B&W print runs and print quality. I know historical demand for these items were very low but that seems to be irrelevant now. It’s impossible to tell if people like these cards or if people like low pop high value older cards
This is top secret information
I don’t think the people you’re talking about are the ones paying these record prices for vintage anyway
I think it helped kickstart the vintage bubble especially in the first months. So I agree, it’s at least one of the new cash flows imho
Also, I’m not necessarily thinking about a random Timmy with 2 evolving skies boxes and 3 Gengar Full Arts, but individuals who moved thousands of boxes with substantial profits.
I just sold a couple of psa 10 tag team promos to buy multiple cards I have wanted for my set collection. Vintage, of course.
Beat me to it lol
To be honest i feel like this forum has way more knowledge than any other pokemon place around, seems like general consensus here is that:
A) A retrace will happen. Time frame varies between opinions.
B) The retrace wont be as big as expected.
C) We wont see Pre pandemic prices.
I don’t feel that way. I think the existence of vintage’s historical popularity and value supports modern prices. Actually what I’m saying isn’t contradicting you and should support your theory but I’m not seeing vintage demand and sales at physical stores. If you are right modern singles would sit in store cases longer then vintage
My first thought was that using the 30th anniversary was too soon, just 6 months away, but it really does feels like the timescale for some of these cards rising has shrunk and a week is long enough for a card to rise and fall
I’m waiting to see how long the kanda seismatoad stays high $$
Back during post pandemic, the 1st Edition PSA9 Charizard that was selling for around U$S60,000 rose to $20kish in a matter of weeks.
Makes sense. Seems like the reasonable balance between:
a. Number go up forever
b. Number crash to 0
I think it depends on how far we look out. If we look at 60 years from now when most of us are really old/passing away then sure it could see major declines on say 95% of the cards out there. If we’re saying in 5 years I don’t know maybe in certain areas it will retrace like ultra modern but likely folks will be making more money as time passes and they get further into their careers. I used to worry about spending a couple hundred on a single card during the pokemon go boom. Now I make more and my buying power is much stronger but the same cards that were $200-300 are now 4-5 figures so same stressor but at a much higher amount ha…
A lot of the ppl who recently came back into the hobby wont necessarily stay.
Im not sure how popular it is with the 4yr old to 10yr old crowd so i cant guess if Pokemon will still be popular 20yrs from now.
It will be hard to keep making more and more cards for the same old pokemon over and over. There are only so many angles that you can capture charizard blowing fire before it gets stale
Just adding new Pokemon isnt a great strategy as having thousands of creatures isnt viable. Ppl wont keep up or know them and the new mons simply havent seen success in the tcg compared to the first 4 gens
But in the short term 0-5yrs, i cant imagine it dips back below 2020 even in a down cycle
I think to actually go back to pre 2020 levels pokemon as a whole needs to completely fall out of favor. It WILL happen, eventually… i just dont know if that is in 15 years or in 60years. Anyones guess