Danny Phantump Guesstimates of # of Alt Arts in SWSH era

[bk2021]

JUNK WAX ERA? Trying to Find How Many of Each Pokemon Card Alternate Art ACTUALLY Exist!

Spreadsheet is visible through most of the video, but you can go to 22 minutes or so to see the final guesstimates which I will reproduce below. To see the thought process, you can just watch the video and see the spreadsheet.

What do you think of these numbers? Are they too high/low? Did you think that they would be more/less?

Discussions on here about the ‘junk wax’ era, which Danny also brings up briefly, have already stated the comparison is not exactly on point due to only a singular company producing the cards and the fact that it’s also a card game, but it’s still an interesting reference point.

I know KetchumAllCollectibles has his own spreadsheet that he maintains behind his Patreon for all eras’ chase cards but I don’t have access to that. Some of his original work can be found on the thread in the Articles section about print run estimation.

For me it’s not so much whether the cards are able to perform like previous eras, which tbf have all performed differently, but whether they will be able to maintain their current pricing, since this is a topic or point of contention that crops up regularly - that modern is bound to eventually implode.

As I’ve previously stated, most of the non-chase cards, which are pretty much everything not an alt art or a female supporter full art card, are already at such low prices (sub $10) that already shows immense market saturation, so it’s not like they are inflated - unless of course, when people say you can get junk wax era sports cards for pennies, it’s a literal statement, then potentially these could also fall to that level.

Whilst demand is always fluctuating and obviously not everyone wants to collect everything, a print run of <200,000 in a hobby of millions doesn’t seem a lot. Yes, attrition will be much slower for these cards compared to eras past and even other cards within the same era (because people probably won’t take care of those as well) but it will still happen.

Furthermore, whilst not an apple to apple comparison, surely the JP exclusive promos that are sought after have print runs of a similar quantity or greater? Obviously they do vary wildly in price tiers, but they were/are easily acquired and in better condition than set cards that need to be pulled.

Thoughts?

[pokebuffet]

This kind of wild and biased speculations don’t serve any meaningful purposes. It is merely anecdotal or based on what one experiences, ie; an opinion. Of course anyone is free to express an opinion/observation, but it cannot be taken to be representative of the entire community, meaning;- not real facts/stats.

Best taken with a pinch of salt.

[bk2021]

It’s neither biased nor wild, it’s working off of data. Maybe assumptions are wrong, but from your post, it doesn’t seem like you watched the video or read my post.

FWIW, I have reached similar numbers myself.

What’s irrefutable are the numbers announced by Pokemon, pull rate tiers and no of cards in those rarities in each set. The % or ratio of sets to promos/decks etc. obviously are the ones being assumed, but with reasonable assumptions.

[pfm]

I guess my question would be, assuming these numbers are 100% accurate and correct, what if anything does that change?

[pokebuffet]

Watched it on youtube before you even posted it. Still it is just speculations.

We won’t know about that, until the pokemon company publishes their actual data and stats, all are just speculations;- whether they appear reasonable or not.

[bk2021]

I often read on here the pervading sentiment that modern will implode, so that has to be based on something right?

Why will it implode? Because they printed too much? People probably have a number in mind that they equate to ‘too much’ and I just wanted to find out what that is. Or if there is actually no thought behind it besides feelings.

Already a pop. report of 1,000 PSA10s for sought after JP promos get some people on here rattled even though pop. report also indicates demand.

[pfm]

I think most people who should be taken seriously are not speaking in absolutes like “modern will implode”. The future is unpredictable, the best you can do is analyze risk and probabilities.

I can’t speak for anyone outside myself but I can definitely see the most obvious risk related to modern. Supply is fixed and immutable for the most part. The effect of supply is already baked into prices today. That’s why moonbreon stays expensive and those Charizord Vstar promos are dirt cheap. Also partially why the Illustrator contest Gardevoir 408/SM-P is more expensive than the Illustrator Charizord 143/S-P despite being very similar and Charizord being way more popular.

The thing that can change in very significant ways and pretty quickly is demand. Current prices are based on current supply and current demand. The current demand is effectively higher than it has ever been in any point in time. It’s not wild speculation to consider the possibly that either further growth in demand is unlikely or that interest in the cards that are modern today will diminish over time. That has an effect on prices and where the risk is. It’s also completely independent of whether a card has 3000 copies printed or 3million.

[bill]

I think its all very simple and some are thinking way too hard on this. Some modern cards look absolutely amazing. Pops on these modern cards are going up a lot in the coming years. If the insane demand for these cards does not double, triple in the coming years to match supply price goes down.

[JoshB]

Seems like a colossal waste of time.