Im sure you all saw that ad on ebay located in tacoma for a shadowless booster box with clear rap, long crimp packs and shadowless pack art. Its not up anymore tho so what do you think it sold for? They were asking 19k. Let me know your opinion thanks!
Why don’t you ask the seller through ebay or FB or their online store? They also used to have an account here I think.
Hard to guesstimate a price here… They a couple offers around $10k several months ago. We’re not really sure if it even sold, but upwards of $15k would be my guess.
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I’m not sure what happened with it but since we’re on the topic, I’d place a value of around 12k for that box. Incredibly hard to come by and won’t be that cheap for very long. I say cheap because compared to what I think shadowless can and will be, it’s cheap.
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Ya true guess i could ask, just curious what other collectors think value wise. Personally it looked like a really good condition box that had all the correct signs to be shadowless, the seal looked legit as well which is one of the biggest issues with clear rap boxes. Hopefully it sold for a good price!
It’s niche and it doesn’t come to market very often. The peak price is still $21,600($600/pack) that Pokemon Revolution earned through instagram. Prior to that I’m not aware of any box even earning close to $10k.
It doesn’t seem like the kind of product collectors are willing to drop $20k on just yet. They’d rather buy a PSA 10 Charizard than pay a big premium on a glorified green wing box.
This.
Shadowless occupies a strange niche in the hobby.
I bought 17 packs for 5k (give or take for currency exchange) - the packs were unweighed.
I’d imagine a box would be worth around 10k, possibly a bit more for the sealed premium.
Yes it is deffs a specific market but i think it will eventually get to the higher end level. Only issue is there are very few shadowless boxes and even fewer show up on the market for sale which gives no guide lines to what the price may be, but with the sealed premium of a 100% shadowless box it should still be close to 15k imo
That’s a great buy. Anyone would be a buyer at that price. At $300 a pack, that’s half what was earned from that box break.
Will you open some of them? If so, good luck! 
That’s a great deal. Are you going to open any?
This brings up an interesting question. Obviously a sealed box brings a premium over an opened box. That being said, what’s the true value of an unweighted guaranteed shadowless booster pack? 300? 600?
The only way to prove they havnt been searched is with a live opening and tamper proof bags, and then the packs should be at least $500. You have have a legit chance at pulling one of the big three with the possibility of it grading a 10 even tho chances are low. So yes they will be on the very high end per pack, thats why poke rev was able to sell all his packs even at 600.
Oh yeah, some guy came down from Canada and bought it for 12.5k.
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I feel like I may have done this before, but I’m bored so here goes again: Let’s calculate the expected value of a shadowless pack!
Assumptions:
The rare will grade PSA 10 (big assumption!)
There’s a 1/3 chance of pulling a holo, and a 1/15 chance that 1/3 chance will be a specific holo (15 since no Machamp) which is equal to a 1/45 chance that we pull an Alakazam, for example. There are probably additional constraints that you could add to tweak these probabilities since a one-in-a-trillion chance to get a box where every pack contains a holo charizard isn’t possible due to how they distribute the cards, but this is good enough.
Price assumptions (PSA 10):
Alakazam 1300
Blastoise 3500
Chansey 3000
Charizard 15000
Clefairy 1200
Gyarados 700
Hitmonchan 900
Magneton 700
Mewtwo 1200
Nidoking 1000
Ninetales 800
Poliwrath 700
Raichu 2000
Venusaur 1500
Zapdos 700
Non-holo Rare 50
I’m not 100% abreast of shadowless prices but these should be close enough.
To find expected value of the pack, we take the value of the card * the probability of that card, for all card options we’re interested in such that the probability sum of all cards equals 100%. Which means we’ll do 1/45 * the value of the PSA 10 holos and 2/3 * the value of the PSA 10 non-holo rares. We’ll ignore the commons/uncommons.
Expected value (Holo) = 29 + 78 + 67 + 333 + 27 + 16 + 20 + 16 + 27 + 22 + 18 + 16 + 44 + 33 + 16 = 762
Expected value (Nonholo) = 33
Expected value of pack = 762 + 33 = $795 (or ~$28,600 for the box)
Now, I’ve opened up shadowless packs that had very beautiful holos inside and others that had scratched garbage can holos inside (the worst in my experience came from blister packs while the best came from individual packs), so knowing the condition of the holos in the box, their centering, whether the box was jostled around, etc. is impossible without opening up many if not all of the packs to get that info.
Hypothetically, and those of you that have opened up more shadowless packs can chime in to whether these ratios are in line with your anecdata, let’s say there’s a 50% chance your pack fresh card is a psa 10, 40% chance it’s a psa 9, and 10% chance it’s a psa 8.
I’d assume the expected value for PSA 9 cards using the above process would not be too far from ~1/8 of PSA 10 prices, so let’s say $100. And expected value of PSA 8 shadowless let’s just assume is $20, because gross.
That’d make our expected value a little more like: 50% * 795 + 40% * 100 + 10% * 20 = $439.50 (or ~$16,000 for the box)
Which, as a buyer, I’d say isn’t too bad of a price for an unweighed, fresh out of the box pack or sealed box. However, as a seller, I’d be selling to buyers who are buying because they believe they have a very good shot at PSA 10 cards, so I’d price my box/packs closer to the PSA 10 Expected Value price. As we saw from Pokemon Revolution’s sale, packs at $600 sold and sold relatively quickly, so $800 is not out of the realm of possibility for optimistic buyers, especially as time goes on and more packs/boxes are opened.
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Nice work! I feel like your valuation is spot on, but I don’t see anyone earning anywhere close to $600-800 any time soon.
This box has been for sale for about one year yet it only earned $12,500. Last year I was one of the few valuing it at $20-25k, but we’re obviously not quite there yet.
nice calculation, I did a similar table when I calculated the expected value of a german box.
Just one question: do you really get a PSA10 card in 50% of your boosters? I always thought the rate would be 20-30%, 50% seems huge. But then again, this is my experience from buying lose boosters. Never opened a box and straight out graded them all.
For other people who read this…there’s no such thing as tamper proof bags. A scammer can easily manipulate them. We’re not here to educate future scammers so let’s leave it at that.
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Nice work @hypernova. I’d say the chance for a PSA 10 is well under 50% so that would lower the value. On the other hand, commons and uncommons would add some value.
Tamper proof bags combined with the fact that poke rev is established in the hobby made it pretty safe to assume it wasn’t a scam.
True and true.
To throw some other figures, i sold sets of 3 (one of each artwork) for an average of 1k aud ($240 usd a pack roughly), advertised as weighed.
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