Black Label Bubble? 🫧

A fair point made here in respect to the raw card value absolutely.

But what experience, submissions, proof, etc. do you have that its just RNG? Me, someone who can consistently grade black labels has the numbers and data to actually refute your assumption…

What is your rate of hitting a BL vs not?

In your first post here, you yourself said every BL has a pile of 9.5 that didn’t make it.

1 Like

I do not have an actual flat rate that could be just simply stated. Though, I could definitely create one if I went through all my submissions. The difficult part would be recalling if I was 100% confident when I sent the card, that I expected a black label.

If I believe a card can be a black label, I would say that my rate is around 70-80%. That may sound high, but it is pretty infrequent to have a truly and objectively perfect card. Many cards I submit knowing that there is a flaw or two and I am anticipating a Gold 10.

But more often than not, if I really believe a card to be a black label, it will end up as such.

I am always open to being wrong, but you seem so set on disproving anything I say. Are you not open to the possibility that getting black labels is an acquired skill?

@pfm I checked your collection page and you have a very impressive collection. Of course, I am not surprised by what your are saying that your collection seems to be entirely PSA.

I am not saying you feel this way, but do you think that black labels have the chance to devalue your vintage PSA collection? I personally don’t think they do. Vintage black labels are few and far between and are not collected by many.

What I am trying to get at is I think it is good there appears to be almost two entirely different markets for black labels versus regular graded 10’s. We want competition amongst the grading companies because then we as collectors and consumers benefit.

Oh and in regards to the 9.5 pile, I was referring to the learning process of getting a black label. Once you learn to consistently grade them, the 9.5 pile should shrink significantly :smile:

I always try to stay open-minded, which is why I asked for the numbers and data you said you had.

My opinion is not clouded by my collection. In fact, a lot of how I feel about BLs I also feel about the difference between PSA 9/10 which is why I usually buy PSA 9s. Like I mentioned earlier, I try to buy cards for the value of the card not for what the label offers, which is basically a hedge against all grading companies. Not intentionally, but that’s how it ended up. The reason most of my cards are PSA graded is because it was the only realistic option for the majority of the time I have been collecting.

All that said, no, I do not have direct experience submitting to BGS. But across the years I have seen the results other people have gotten and have thought deeply on the topic so I hope that doesn’t disqualify my opinion.

If you have numbers on the rate of hitting the BL when you think you have it and also the rate of hitting the BL when you think a card should be pristine, that would be good data.

Ultimately, the most unbiased test would be to gather a bunch of BL and Pristines and resubmit them across multiple orders. But of course it would be a very expensive test.

10 Likes

This is an excellent response.

First, I want to apologize if I came off curt or disrespectful, as that was not my intention. Second, I want to thank you for your willingness to stay open-minded.

Your collection being largely PSA 9’s is awesome. I think 9’s are the smartest way to own vintage cards. Great condition and you aren’t paying the 5-10x for the premium of a 10.

I perhaps represent the duality of man in how silly it sounds to agree that PSA 9’s are awesome, but at the same time enjoy grading black labels. Though, I don’t try to grade vintage black labels largely.

And definitely your opinion is not invalid. I am just trying to bring a different perspective to the table and I certainly appreciate your perspective as well.

As you said, the best test would be for me to compile my data. And to crack and resubmit BL’s though that could be a costly test if it goes poorly haha

Anyways, thank you for all the conversation PokemonFlyingMaster! I am always grateful to hear others perspectives and to learn more.

22 Likes

I’m replying in-between working but I just wanted to say that I appreciate your patience and attitude on an issue where most people in your position would get upset and defensive really fast.

And if you really enjoy black labels I don’t want to take that away from you. I’m just always trying to advocate that people think about what they are buying and why. Not you in particular, but anyone reading.

15 Likes

This was a great conversation and for me personally a learning moment to get some perspectives on grading.

@aladdinisking since you mentioned your method is based on experience, of the cards that you do submit, and those that come back not black label but still a high grade, do you trust your own experience to be able to crack and resubmit or is it a case of you somehow missed something in your submission attempt or a mix of both? Have you resubmitted cards to get the black label?

Cheers!

4 Likes

@aladdinisking I just want to say your responses are very level headed. I think there is pent up frustration from the irrational prices that black labels earn that you are perhaps unintentionally receiving in this conversation. Basically you shouldn’t feel like you are on trial. This has been a good discussion!

23 Likes

Hi! What are the chances that a new CGC Pristine 10 can be graded as Black Label? I mean, breaking the slab and send it raw to BGS. I have a few pristines and I would like to try it.

High chance if YOU think the card is grade worthy.

Not all CGC pristine 10s are equal so always be SUPER strict on checking the card yourself. Buy a centering tool also and make sure it is absolutely perfect.

From personal experience - always crack unless the Pristine 10 card is already in a BGS slab (but only if you dont care the CGC pristine 10 coming back a BGS 9.5, as BGS only allow you to put 9.5 as the minimum grade, unless you do it in person at a show and pay $100 a pop).

I sent in my CGC 10 pristine 9.5/10/10/10 subgrades base set Alakazam to BGS at 2 different card shows (it was graded 3 times, total grading fees of $300) and got 9.5/9.5/10/10 x2 and one time it got a 9 lmao.

Thankfully it is still in the CGC pristine 10 slab - it really is the cleanest WOTC card I have ever seen and in my mind is deserved of a BGS Pristine 10 grade.

They really are MASSIVELY biased towards their own slabs - and it is a VERY low chance to get it cross graded even if it does deserve it, if it is in another companies slab (maybe even more against CGC).

2 Likes

zardy you cabronazo!! Still thinking about lotr tcg every day…

I will keep the worst CGC 10 Pristine and break the other 3, and I will keep submitting them to BGS until I get a Black Label then.

1 Like

1 Like

I’m a little late to this party, but I’d just like to echo others and say that this conversation was a great read, which I 100% did not expect when I saw 40+ unread messages in this thread, haha. Thank you @aladdinisking for some nice perspective and thoughtful, intentional debate!

1 Like

it’s coming, gold star greninja already 10USD per card in Japan

5 Likes

So I just graded a Luigi Poncho Pikachu #296 black label. The pop report says 2 so I think mine might be the first to hit any auction ?

Any guesses on the price ?

4 Likes

I suspect the price will be stupid

11 Likes

9k

1 Like

Yeah pop 2 of a really popular card. Will be really expensive

1 Like

Sale from last year for this Black Label:

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/items/3778573/2013-pokemon-japanese-xy-promo-poncho-wearing-pikachu-208-bgs-10-black-label?utm_medium=email&utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_campaign=Weekly_Auction_68_Record_Sales_TCG&utm_content=Pokemon+and+Magic+the+Gathering+Record+Sales+from+Sunday+s+Weekly+Auction

2 Likes