Anyone here feel bad for MTG vintage collectors?

[jonandek]

@zorloth

@jonandek

I used to have huge positions in magic. $750k-$800k or more at one time. At today’s values it would be millions. I simultaneously had the top Beckett sets for Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, Antiquities, Arabian Nights, Legends and Portal 3 Kingdoms. I also had two alpha starters and whole sealed box of beta starters. I got out of nearly my entire position in 2016 for a variety of reasons. What you have to always keep in mind with magic is that the original A/B product is very, very scarce. 1100 copies ever made of each Alpha rare. I recall something like 6600 of each beta rare. that singular fact was always the north star to me in collecting, particularly those two sets which constituted the vast portion of capital I invested into it. those alpha numbers include the packs that were initially handed out at trade shows and card shops as promos to generate initial interest in the game. I’ve always imagined how much ended up in the garbage. truly gem mint copies of those cards, particularly alpha, are so very rare compared to most things in pokemon. new sealed product that gets opened will just be a trickle from now until the end of time. a drop of water in the ocean. so the supply side of alpha/beta is favorable to a collector/investor. the only way I was able to complete my sets was to get to people who had opened a bunch of sealed product in the early to late 2000s when it was still accessible. I got a ton from a particular collector in Seattle, a ton from my friend who made a ton of money trading one year and put it all into raw alpha and cracked it all. Once that supply is gone, it’s gone.

on the demand side of magic, that’s where I was always worried. the demand IS very game-centric, even for those old cards. I worried about what the future of magic would be in 10, 20 years if the game ever declined. I ended up too heavily invested into something where I felt disconnected from the game which is the core driver of long term demand in magic. I like Adam Cai but I don’t miss him as my full-time card broker. I sure don’t miss Daniel Chang.

the point of that whole soliloquy is that the things that made me not want to have so much money tied up in magic cards are not present in pokemon. There’s a lot more relative supply, but the demand and overall popularity dwarfs magic. pokemon is not a “niche” like magic. It’s mainstream. I don’t do any of this to invest, I do it 99% to collect but I am mindful of value preservation. I sure sleep better at night being invested in pokemon than magic. I welcome more magic collectors over to the dark side. So far I’ve tried with Adam Cai and Brian Nocenti. Adam is a no but Brian has stuck his toe in the water a bit. bring them all over here, the water is much nicer, IMO.

all of that said, I will always love those original magic cards. they came out when I was in high school and I played and collected them at that time. personally, I actually have more emotional ties to magic than pokemon as I was a bit old for pokemon when it came out. If I had kept one major thing from my magic collection, it would have been a raw alpha binder set.

I never had quite as much invested in MTG as you, but I did (and still do, to an extent) have a pretty sizeable collection. Similar to you, I’ve sold off most of it over the past few years as vintage prices skyrocketed. The only things I have left are my EDH deck (which is solidly in the low 5 figures; I have pictures of it up on r/foilmtg, same username minus an ‘h’), my mostly power-less NM/M Unlimited set, and a piece of original art (for a decent card from Masques block that has seen fringe competitive play – probably in the low-to-mid 4 figures). More or less everything else I’ve reinvested into Pokemon, and largely for the same reasons as you. As you said, the health of the the Magic market is largely tied into the popularity of the game itself. The advent of 93/94 Magic (aka Old School) has driven much of the growth in ABU cards over the past few years. The value of cards such as fetch and dual lands is largely dependent on a thriving MTG scene. The future of competitive paper MTG is highly uncertain right now (even disregarding the ongoing crisis). WotC has more or less entirely gutted the ‘tournament-grinder’ scene with the removal of pro points, brick-mortar-game stores are facing near-certain doom, and there has been a strong push toward digital MTG since the announcement of Arena. I absolutely love the game, but I just don’t know how it will hold up.

Pokemon, on the other hand, as you outlined, is very nearly MTG without the element of risk (or as much risk, at least). The value of cards is almost fully divorced from gameplay utility and Pokemon is literally the highest-grossing media franchise of all time. I cannot think of a more ubiquitous fixture of ‘nerd culture’ than Pokemon. Interest may wax and wane, but the franchise is much too large to fail within my lifetime – it is just that much of a cultural presence.

It’s very interesting you mention having tried to convince Brian Nocenti to invest in Pokemon. I remember him posting in the MTG sealed collector group on Facebook looking for sealed Pokemon boxes, not too long after I started purchasing sealed Pokemon product. Definitely cemented my confidence in the asset class knowing that one of the most prolific sealed MTG collectors in the world was diversifying into Pokemon. Well before Brian, though, Daniel Chang had been acquiring Pokemon booster boxes. Turned out pretty well for him I suppose, though it certainly wasn’t a result of any prescience on his part…he’s a complete and utter moron.

The scarcity of vintage MTG has made me very curious about the relative print runs of Pokemon. MTG had some pretty monumental print runs, but I have to imagine that the print runs of Pokemon sets dwarf MTG’s. It certainly doesn’t seem that way, though. Many of the Pokemon cards I’m currently acquiring for sets have much less supply on the market than MTG cards from the same time period. There is sometimes almost no supply of certain ungraded, NM/M EX-era cards, and the almost entire absence of sealed booster boxes on the market is even more bewildering to me.

The point of this ramble is basically just to say that my perspective is quite similar to yours, and that I have to imagine there are plenty more MTG collectors who’ve flocked to Pokemon recently for similar reasons. I wonder if part of the boom in Pokemon prices is fueled by the decline of the MTG market.

cool. good to meet a fellow mtg collector here. I have wondered if some of the increase in pokemon could be part of the magic balloon pushing its way over here as opposed to a “bubble”. I bought my gem mint rayquaza from brian and almost bought his Charizard. Brian collects but has much more of a business mindset about it. Whereas I collect completely separate from my business

[smpratte]

@jonandek, Please believe I know the Dang stories! I did a call with Adam and that was a good 15 minutes of the call.

That is good to know about the power cards. Yours/Adam’s are definitely top of the charts. Unless a miracle scenario of someone opening decks and somehow finding perfect examples emerges, I don’t think that will ever change. I wonder if that owner will dip their toes into Pokemon. The rarest stuff in Pokemon is still a fraction compared to those power cards.

[jonandek]

@smpratte

@jonandek , Please believe I know the Dang stories! I did a call with Adam and that was a good 15 minutes of the call.

That is good to know about the power cards. Yours/Adam’s are definitely top of the charts. Unless a miracle scenario of someone opening decks and somehow finding perfect examples emerges, I don’t think that will ever change. I wonder if that owner will dip their toes into Pokemon. The rarest stuff in Pokemon is still a fraction compared to those power cards.

haha yes everyone has those stories.

I am really proud of putting that set together even though I don’t own it anymore. with adam’s P9 cards in there, I agree it’s probably not possible to put together one like it again. It took so much work over several years. and the cards that seemed expensive then are SOOO much more expensive now. It is literally composed of cards from many, many different sources, some of whom will most likely never sell cards again. I got a bunch of openboosters pack fresh alphas right when he found his stash and before he started his youtube channel. a collector in seattle who opened TONS of vintage alpha decks in the early 2000s let me go through and pick each of his best cards. he used the money to redo his kitchen and buy a boat. brian nocenti sold me all of the best alpha cards he had at the time. I cherry picked a bunch of dealer lots (not collector’s consignment lots) from Brent at PWCC before they went to auction. basically it was the best of what I could get from a lot of amazing collections. lots of sweat equity in that… and it cost 10x as much as I ever wanted to spend. favorite card from the set was actually the birds of paradise. it’s so hard to find a perfectly centered birds that’s also gem mint. and the one in there is a stunner. perfectly centered and perfectly gem mint. never have seen one like it. when I found it, it replaced my other 9.5 birds that was so off-center it was basically mis-graded. good collecting memories

[smpratte]

@jonandek, I complete understand! Some of my trophy goals took a decade to complete. I’m doing an alpha binder set, and that will be similar. Even in played condition a lot of the cards aren’t consistently available.

[jonandek]

@smpratte

@jonandek, I complete understand! Some of my trophy goals took a decade to complete. I’m doing an alpha binder set, and that will be similar. Even in played condition a lot of the cards aren’t consistently available.

If you want, I can go through my remaining box of alphas and see what’s there. I have a few rares and quite a lot of commons/uncommons. I’ll trade mtg for pokemon

[yz2428]

@salmoncannon

As someone who has a sunk a lot of time and money in to both MTG and Pokemon, I could rant forever about this topic and the differences between the hobbies.

One major difference between the two stands out to me though. There is a lot more emotion involved with Pokemon. No one really feels super passionate about random ABUR rares like Farmstead. Look at Pokemon on the other hand, you crack a pack of 1st ed Base, nearly everyone has fond memories of even the random common Pokemon. This hobby has people who are fixated with say, Growlithe. You can’t really say the same for a Beta Giant Growth. I think this is highlighted during difficult times like these. People who really enjoy certain things, like Pokemon, are still buying. I know a lot of people who are selling out of paper magic due to the economy, or at the very least halting their buying.

Not to mention the unwavering incompetence of WOTC in regards to managing their game over the last few years, but that’s an essay for another day.

when the franchise has tv shows and movies to add to the backstories and myths, every pokemon gives you nostalgia. in MTG, there is less emotional connection, thus, less emotional response to the vintage stuff outside the power 9s, dual lands, etc…

[yz2428]

@zorloth

@jonandek

I used to have huge positions in magic. $750k-$800k or more at one time. At today’s values it would be millions. I simultaneously had the top Beckett sets for Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, Antiquities, Arabian Nights, Legends and Portal 3 Kingdoms. I also had two alpha starters and whole sealed box of beta starters. I got out of nearly my entire position in 2016 for a variety of reasons. What you have to always keep in mind with magic is that the original A/B product is very, very scarce. 1100 copies ever made of each Alpha rare. I recall something like 6600 of each beta rare. that singular fact was always the north star to me in collecting, particularly those two sets which constituted the vast portion of capital I invested into it. those alpha numbers include the packs that were initially handed out at trade shows and card shops as promos to generate initial interest in the game. I’ve always imagined how much ended up in the garbage. truly gem mint copies of those cards, particularly alpha, are so very rare compared to most things in pokemon. new sealed product that gets opened will just be a trickle from now until the end of time. a drop of water in the ocean. so the supply side of alpha/beta is favorable to a collector/investor. the only way I was able to complete my sets was to get to people who had opened a bunch of sealed product in the early to late 2000s when it was still accessible. I got a ton from a particular collector in Seattle, a ton from my friend who made a ton of money trading one year and put it all into raw alpha and cracked it all. Once that supply is gone, it’s gone.

on the demand side of magic, that’s where I was always worried. the demand IS very game-centric, even for those old cards. I worried about what the future of magic would be in 10, 20 years if the game ever declined. I ended up too heavily invested into something where I felt disconnected from the game which is the core driver of long term demand in magic. I like Adam Cai but I don’t miss him as my full-time card broker. I sure don’t miss Daniel Chang.

the point of that whole soliloquy is that the things that made me not want to have so much money tied up in magic cards are not present in pokemon. There’s a lot more relative supply, but the demand and overall popularity dwarfs magic. pokemon is not a “niche” like magic. It’s mainstream. I don’t do any of this to invest, I do it 99% to collect but I am mindful of value preservation. I sure sleep better at night being invested in pokemon than magic. I welcome more magic collectors over to the dark side. So far I’ve tried with Adam Cai and Brian Nocenti. Adam is a no but Brian has stuck his toe in the water a bit. bring them all over here, the water is much nicer, IMO.

all of that said, I will always love those original magic cards. they came out when I was in high school and I played and collected them at that time. personally, I actually have more emotional ties to magic than pokemon as I was a bit old for pokemon when it came out. If I had kept one major thing from my magic collection, it would have been a raw alpha binder set.

I never had quite as much invested in MTG as you, but I did (and still do, to an extent) have a pretty sizeable collection. Similar to you, I’ve sold off most of it over the past few years as vintage prices skyrocketed. The only things I have left are my EDH deck (which is solidly in the low 5 figures; I have pictures of it up on r/foilmtg, same username minus an ‘h’), my mostly power-less NM/M Unlimited set, and a piece of original art (for a decent card from Masques block that has seen fringe competitive play – probably in the low-to-mid 4 figures). More or less everything else I’ve reinvested into Pokemon, and largely for the same reasons as you. As you said, the health of the the Magic market is largely tied into the popularity of the game itself. The advent of 93/94 Magic (aka Old School) has driven much of the growth in ABU cards over the past few years. The value of cards such as fetch and dual lands is largely dependent on a thriving MTG scene. The future of competitive paper MTG is highly uncertain right now (even disregarding the ongoing crisis). WotC has more or less entirely gutted the ‘tournament-grinder’ scene with the removal of pro points, brick-mortar-game stores are facing near-certain doom, and there has been a strong push toward digital MTG since the announcement of Arena. I absolutely love the game, but I just don’t know how it will hold up.

Pokemon, on the other hand, as you outlined, is very nearly MTG without the element of risk (or as much risk, at least). The value of cards is almost fully divorced from gameplay utility and Pokemon is literally the highest-grossing media franchise of all time. I cannot think of a more ubiquitous fixture of ‘nerd culture’ than Pokemon. Interest may wax and wane, but the franchise is much too large to fail within my lifetime – it is just that much of a cultural presence.

It’s very interesting you mention having tried to convince Brian Nocenti to invest in Pokemon. I remember him posting in the MTG sealed collector group on Facebook looking for sealed Pokemon boxes, not too long after I started purchasing sealed Pokemon product. Definitely cemented my confidence in the asset class knowing that one of the most prolific sealed MTG collectors in the world was diversifying into Pokemon. Well before Brian, though, Daniel Chang had been acquiring Pokemon booster boxes. Turned out pretty well for him I suppose, though it certainly wasn’t a result of any prescience on his part…he’s a complete and utter moron.

The scarcity of vintage MTG has made me very curious about the relative print runs of Pokemon. MTG had some pretty monumental print runs, but I have to imagine that the print runs of Pokemon sets dwarf MTG’s. It certainly doesn’t seem that way, though. Many of the Pokemon cards I’m currently acquiring for sets have much less supply on the market than MTG cards from the same time period. There is sometimes almost no supply of certain ungraded, NM/M EX-era cards, and the almost entire absence of sealed booster boxes on the market is even more bewildering to me.

The point of this ramble is basically just to say that my perspective is quite similar to yours, and that I have to imagine there are plenty more MTG collectors who’ve flocked to Pokemon recently for similar reasons. I wonder if part of the boom in Pokemon prices is fueled by the decline of the MTG market.

can you imagine a few big time magic collectors come over to pokemon and what that’ll do to the small pokemon vintage market? corona 2.0?

[smpratte]

@jonandek

@smpratte

@jonandek, I complete understand! Some of my trophy goals took a decade to complete. I’m doing an alpha binder set, and that will be similar. Even in played condition a lot of the cards aren’t consistently available.

If you want, I can go through my remaining box of alphas and see what’s there. I have a few rares and quite a lot of commons/uncommons. I’ll trade mtg for pokemon

Pm me what you have, mainly the rares and I’ll take a look!

[zorloth]

@yz2428

@zorloth

I never had quite as much invested in MTG as you, but I did (and still do, to an extent) have a pretty sizeable collection. Similar to you, I’ve sold off most of it over the past few years as vintage prices skyrocketed. The only things I have left are my EDH deck (which is solidly in the low 5 figures; I have pictures of it up on r/foilmtg, same username minus an ‘h’), my mostly power-less NM/M Unlimited set, and a piece of original art (for a decent card from Masques block that has seen fringe competitive play – probably in the low-to-mid 4 figures). More or less everything else I’ve reinvested into Pokemon, and largely for the same reasons as you. As you said, the health of the the Magic market is largely tied into the popularity of the game itself. The advent of 93/94 Magic (aka Old School) has driven much of the growth in ABU cards over the past few years. The value of cards such as fetch and dual lands is largely dependent on a thriving MTG scene. The future of competitive paper MTG is highly uncertain right now (even disregarding the ongoing crisis). WotC has more or less entirely gutted the ‘tournament-grinder’ scene with the removal of pro points, brick-mortar-game stores are facing near-certain doom, and there has been a strong push toward digital MTG since the announcement of Arena. I absolutely love the game, but I just don’t know how it will hold up.

Pokemon, on the other hand, as you outlined, is very nearly MTG without the element of risk (or as much risk, at least). The value of cards is almost fully divorced from gameplay utility and Pokemon is literally the highest-grossing media franchise of all time. I cannot think of a more ubiquitous fixture of ‘nerd culture’ than Pokemon. Interest may wax and wane, but the franchise is much too large to fail within my lifetime – it is just that much of a cultural presence.

It’s very interesting you mention having tried to convince Brian Nocenti to invest in Pokemon. I remember him posting in the MTG sealed collector group on Facebook looking for sealed Pokemon boxes, not too long after I started purchasing sealed Pokemon product. Definitely cemented my confidence in the asset class knowing that one of the most prolific sealed MTG collectors in the world was diversifying into Pokemon. Well before Brian, though, Daniel Chang had been acquiring Pokemon booster boxes. Turned out pretty well for him I suppose, though it certainly wasn’t a result of any prescience on his part…he’s a complete and utter moron.

The scarcity of vintage MTG has made me very curious about the relative print runs of Pokemon. MTG had some pretty monumental print runs, but I have to imagine that the print runs of Pokemon sets dwarf MTG’s. It certainly doesn’t seem that way, though. Many of the Pokemon cards I’m currently acquiring for sets have much less supply on the market than MTG cards from the same time period. There is sometimes almost no supply of certain ungraded, NM/M EX-era cards, and the almost entire absence of sealed booster boxes on the market is even more bewildering to me.

The point of this ramble is basically just to say that my perspective is quite similar to yours, and that I have to imagine there are plenty more MTG collectors who’ve flocked to Pokemon recently for similar reasons. I wonder if part of the boom in Pokemon prices is fueled by the decline of the MTG market.

can you imagine a few big time magic collectors come over to pokemon and what that’ll do to the small pokemon vintage market? corona 2.0?

It could be significant. I don’t know that I’d call the Pokemon vintage market small, though. Both the supply of and demand for vintage Pokemon cards are pretty robust. Unless by small you mean price-wise. In which case, I agree – ultra high-end vintage Pokemon is still not quite as expensive as ultra high-end vintage MTG (with the exception of trophy cards, perhaps).

The supply of and demand for 1st edition WotC cards are both much higher than those of ABU. Not to mention the lower rate of re-entry into circulation for Pokemon cards, high rates of which play a large role in the volatility of the MTG market. There are so many people stockpiling, for example, Revised dual lands – but not really collecting them in the way that people collect Pokemon cards. It’s a sort of pseudo-collecting largely driven by reserved list FOMO – “no more duals can be printed, I should grab some before it’s too late!” Of course, when these duals are not actively in use and have little future prospect for being actively used (as is the case now), we see market saturation and accompanying price drops. Absent large contingents of highly overextended Pokemon collectors, it’s hard to imagine what could precipitate a similar market event for the Pokemon card market. The value of cards such MTG cards such as dual lands, in contrast, are mostly because of their gameplay utility. With few exceptions, the price of MTG cards with little gameplay utility do not tend to hold up. The exceptions might be cards such as Juzam Djinn and Shivan Dragon, which are nostalgic in a Charizard-esque way for some people. But for each Juzam Djinn, there are a dozen Elephant Graveyards, Pyramids, and Drop of Honeys (which, while a good card, few actually play with).

But on your point: a reinfusion of capital from MTG into Pokemon could put a lot of pressure on the market and drive up prices signficantly.

[jonandek]

adam texted me last night asking the price of a first ed shadowless zard… I don’t think he’s collecting though probably trading with someone. I’ll keep pushing

[chopkins1994]

If there’s anything I’ve learned in over 8 years of magic and following reserved list prices it’s that while prices seem very volatile, they will show growth overall in the long run. The issue with reserved list cards is that the market is small. So, when the market moves it is more severe. I was buying the less popular revised dual lands back in 2016 for $40-60. Even after the crash you can’t find any for less than $100 and last I checked doubling your money over 4 years is still an insanely good investment. MTG revised list has horrible short term volatility with really strong long term growth. It’s a flippers paradise if you have the money and know how to play the market(Which is a big part of the issue).

[zorloth]

@chopkins1994

If there’s anything I’ve learned in over 8 years of magic and following reserved list prices it’s that while prices seem very volatile, they will show growth overall in the long run. The issue with reserved list cards is that the market is small. So, when the market moves it is more severe. I was buying the less popular revised dual lands back in 2016 for $40-60. Even after the crash you can’t find any for less than $100 and last I checked doubling your money over 4 years is still an insanely good investment. MTG revised list has horrible short term volatility with really strong long term growth. It’s a flippers paradise if you have the money and know how to play the market(Which is a big part of the issue).

MTG has so far shown growth over the long term, I agree. I remember buying my Beta Volc for $95 in 2009 – one of my first ‘large’ MTG purchases. Felt great to sell it for 4x the price just a few years later:
So yeah, I’ve experienced first hand the crazy growth of the MTG market – I have cards that have literally experienced 10,000% gains. But as the saying goes, “past performance does not guarantee future results” – which, while cliche, holds true here. We know that reserved list cards have had a tumultuous but firmly upward trajectory over the past decade. But that’s because paper MTG grew dramatically in popularity. Will paper MTG be more popular in 10 years than it is now? Maybe. But it could also very possibly be less popular in 10 years.

The main reason why I’m worried about the future of MTG is not because of WotC’s seemingly constant stream of shitty decisions – they’ve made tons of poor decisions over the game’s history (and good ones, too, of course; the game didn’t accidentally rise to prominence). And as far as I’m concerned, the sets released in the past year have actually been quite good, gameplay-wise (besides some power-level mishaps). I’m used to WotC making questionable decisions, and it doesn’t really bother me anymore. But the really concerning thing is the shift toward digital. It wasn’t so much an issue with MTGO, because the client was clunky and unwieldy enough to repel most casual players. But now there’s Arena, which has clearly overtaken paper on their priority list. They just recently added human drafting to Arena, which is a pretty devastating blow to paper MTG, IMO.

Paper MTG is still, as of today, super popular and very far from being dead or even dying. But if WotC continues on their current course, I’m pretty confident they will kill paper Magic. Of course, Magic is popular enough that people will continue to play long past its discontinuation. But the removal of official support for paper Magic is the day the market (for everything but mint ABU) dies.

[nietzsche]

Why are people calling the vintage market small? I think people confuse product available with market size or something. The demand for 1st edition base alone is comparable to the demand for modern. Just because there’s too much demand and too little product doesn’t mean the market is smaller.

[chopkins1994]

@zorloth only time will tell but I think vintage magic has moved so far into the collectible category that only a small fraction of its value lies in playability. I really only see the digital age of MTG affecting modern product. How severely is the question.

@nietzsche the market for vintage MTG is small because of print runs on top of most people not being able to afford it. Just like 1st ed base, most people can’t afford to drop 1.5k+ on a played raw zard and most people can’t afford to drop 5k+ on an unlimited lotus. When you have something like alpha rares where only 900 were printed and God only knows how many have been destroyed over the year, you can buy 10 copies of one (if you can find them) and own a substantial percentage of the market. So when the market sees a downturn as a whole and people decide to sell their high end cards at the same time, the market doesn’t absorb it as well. Ever see PWCC auction off multiples of the same high end graded pokemon card at the same time? The result isn’t pretty for the market.

[zorloth]

@nietzsche

Why are people calling the vintage market small? I think people confuse product available with market size or something. The demand for 1st edition base alone is comparable to the demand for modern. Just because there’s too much demand and too little product doesn’t mean the market is smaller.

I figured the person who said that was referring to prices, not the size. The top-end prices of the vintage MTG market dwarf that of the Pokemon market. PSA 10 1st edition Base Set Charizard is ~$55k. A BGS 9 Alpha Lotus sold for more than that yesterday – and that was only a 9 andthe MTG market is in a slump. PWCC sold a BGS 9.5 Lotus for $166k last year. Individual Pokemon cards (outside of Pikachu Illustrator and other cards not in regular print) haven’t realized nearly as high prices. Which is not to say Pokemon won’t eventually reach that point – the market is emergent and the buyers are generally much younger. MTG’s been around for almost 30 years, so vintage MTG buyers have more disposable income, on average.

[zorloth]

@chopkins1994

@zorloth only time will tell but I think vintage magic has moved so far into the collectible category that only a small fraction of its value lies in playability. I really only see the digital age of MTG affecting modern product. How severely is the question.

@nietzsche the market for vintage MTG is small because of print runs on top of most people not being able to afford it. Just like 1st ed base, most people can’t afford to drop 1.5k+ on a played raw zard and most people can’t afford to drop 5k+ on an unlimited lotus. When you have something like alpha rares where only 900 were printed and God only knows how many have been destroyed over the year, you can buy 10 copies of one (if you can find them) and own a substantial percentage of the market. So when the market sees a downturn as a whole and people decide to sell their high end cards at the same time, the market doesn’t absorb it as well. Ever see PWCC auction off multiples of the same high end graded pokemon card at the same time? The result isn’t pretty for the market.

That’s a fair assessment. NM/M ABU cards/sealed product, as well as original art, are, IMO, the only truly safe MTG investments at this point. I still think original Magic art is pretty underrated – it’s quite literally one-of-a-kind, but also recognizable by millions. And since so little new Magic art is traditional, there are really almost no more pieces of physical original art being produced. It’s still a bit surprising to me that you can find pieces of original art for $1k. Really disappointing that original Pokemon art isn’t a thing .

Also, FYI, the Alpha print run was 1100 of each rare. But fewer than 900 of each rare are probably in circulation.

[jonandek]

Magic has had plenty of opportunities to expand its franchise. It had some great apps back in 2013 and 2014 that helped draw me back into collecting. They should have kept that up and nailed it. Supposedly there was going to be a movie. Never happened. IMO, Hasbro has missed big opportunities. I think in some ways the cards being discussed have moved beyond the game. But their long-term value is tied to there being a game. If the game declines or goes away, magic has not made itself enough of a part of pop culture for people to spend hundreds of thousands collecting it. If the pokemon game goes away it’s not good for this hobby either but there’s still lots more of a franchise to support it and keep it relevant.

[nietzsche]

@chopkins1994

@zorloth only time will tell but I think vintage magic has moved so far into the collectible category that only a small fraction of its value lies in playability. I really only see the digital age of MTG affecting modern product. How severely is the question.

@nietzsche the market for vintage MTG is small because of print runs on top of most people not being able to afford it. Just like 1st ed base, most people can’t afford to drop 1.5k+ on a played raw zard and most people can’t afford to drop 5k+ on an unlimited lotus. When you have something like alpha rares where only 900 were printed and God only knows how many have been destroyed over the year, you can buy 10 copies of one (if you can find them) and own a substantial percentage of the market. So when the market sees a downturn as a whole and people decide to sell their high end cards at the same time, the market doesn’t absorb it as well. Ever see PWCC auction off multiples of the same high end graded pokemon card at the same time? The result isn’t pretty for the market.

I don’t think people realize how many businesses are out there who collectively consume items priced at this high end marker you are referring to.

[andrewvt36]

@yz2428

@salmoncannon

As someone who has a sunk a lot of time and money in to both MTG and Pokemon, I could rant forever about this topic and the differences between the hobbies.

One major difference between the two stands out to me though. There is a lot more emotion involved with Pokemon. No one really feels super passionate about random ABUR rares like Farmstead. Look at Pokemon on the other hand, you crack a pack of 1st ed Base, nearly everyone has fond memories of even the random common Pokemon. This hobby has people who are fixated with say, Growlithe. You can’t really say the same for a Beta Giant Growth. I think this is highlighted during difficult times like these. People who really enjoy certain things, like Pokemon, are still buying. I know a lot of people who are selling out of paper magic due to the economy, or at the very least halting their buying.

Not to mention the unwavering incompetence of WOTC in regards to managing their game over the last few years, but that’s an essay for another day.

when the franchise has tv shows and movies to add to the backstories and myths, every pokemon gives you nostalgia. in MTG, there is less emotional connection, thus, less emotional response to the vintage stuff outside the power 9s, dual lands, etc…

I tend to agree with this. With the Netflix adaptation and the movie coming up, MTG might have a chance to be a “fad” the way Pokemon was in the 90s. That said, I bought and sold Magic cards for years to help pay my way through college and it’s a whole different ball game these days versus in 2015. MTG Arena helps too- lots of new players. I do like some of the stuff they’re doing with full alternate arts, looks like they’re paying attention to how Pokemon is blowing them out of the water in terms of card design.

One dramatic example, that has a clear parallel in Pokemon- bulk used to be amazing for finding value. I would buy any rare for .10 cents and regularly hit jackpots from stores that just wanted to clear up $4-500 of inventory. Nowadays, with the print numbers so much astronomically higher, there’s no chance of that being profitable.

Also hilariously funny to see a few names of collectors here in this thread. There’s a community around buying and selling the original art for Magic cards as well, and I remember asking my friend who owns dozens of paintings what he would pay if a base set Pokemon card were to ever show up. His answer was at least $15,000. Those paintings are locked up tight though!

[andrewvt36]

@zorloth

@chopkins1994

@zorloth only time will tell but I think vintage magic has moved so far into the collectible category that only a small fraction of its value lies in playability. I really only see the digital age of MTG affecting modern product. How severely is the question.

@nietzsche the market for vintage MTG is small because of print runs on top of most people not being able to afford it. Just like 1st ed base, most people can’t afford to drop 1.5k+ on a played raw zard and most people can’t afford to drop 5k+ on an unlimited lotus. When you have something like alpha rares where only 900 were printed and God only knows how many have been destroyed over the year, you can buy 10 copies of one (if you can find them) and own a substantial percentage of the market. So when the market sees a downturn as a whole and people decide to sell their high end cards at the same time, the market doesn’t absorb it as well. Ever see PWCC auction off multiples of the same high end graded pokemon card at the same time? The result isn’t pretty for the market.

That’s a fair assessment. NM/M ABU cards/sealed product, as well as original art, are, IMO, the only truly safe MTG investments at this point. I still think original Magic art is pretty underrated – it’s quite literally one-of-a-kind, but also recognizable by millions. And since so little new Magic art is traditional, there are really almost no more pieces of physical original art being produced. It’s still a bit surprising to me that you can find pieces of original art for $1k. Really disappointing that original Pokemon art isn’t a thing .

Also, FYI, the Alpha print run was 1100 of each rare. But fewer than 900 of each rare are probably in circulation.

Your point is well taken! There's now a well-known store owner in the community who will buy ANY M:TG painting for $850, sight unseen. So that's the new floor.