An Opinion on SMPRATTE's Pokemon Go YouTube Video

Why no presentation of any numbers? (One might hear the pop if he plots the price of cards over the past two years and compares them to the preceding eighteen.)

What it all comes down to is that people erroneously think that Pokemon Go created a bubble instead of shining a light on the hobby and injecting interest (and thus, money) into the market.

I have friends who think anything that isn’t investing property is a scam lmao. They think I’m out of my mind for buying zards.

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From personal experience I agree, I sold my psa 7 1st edition base set charizard in April for 850, and the buyer paid an additional 150ish through the gsp on eBay. That was the highest price sale at the time for that card in that condition. Pokemon go’s hype has died down since then dramatically and was already diminished since the initial hype.

The same card 6-7 months later is valued around 1800 or so.

I think a lot of price increase, or interest into the market is from people that grew up with Pokemon now have good jobs, money, financial freedom etc. They want to get back into it or introduce their kids to it and have found a great way to do it.
On top of that investors are seeing these trends and dipping into the market as well.

I would say Pokemon go reminded people of the game, like Scott said, an advertisement.

Just going to quote something I posted earlier this year.

"I just wanted to stop in and say that the trading card market as a whole was already trending upward prior to pokemon go coming out. Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky rookie cards went from being increasingly watched to nearly doubling in price as they were auctioned off higher and higher. Pokemon card sets that had sat on ebay for over 6 months were already vanishing. Many of these cards resurfaced after Pokemon go came out at higher prices, but the demand was already there and I think it’s a mistake to attribute those price increases to Pokemon go.

Now, I don’t think Pokemon go HURT the market. I’m sure it may even have had a positive impact on sales. However, I think for anyone who meticulously watches the market for collectibles noticed a huge spike in interest last year."

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Saw the youtube video. Brought me to the forum. Here we go:

POGO has for sure has had a HUGE impact on pokemon. It brought tons of people back to the game.

Couple of points about whether the collecting market is in a bubble due to POGO:

  1. Scott, and all high end collectors, are very biased in their opinions on this topic, and rightfully so. He is in the business of selling pokemon cards. Of course he is going to say the market is on the up and up. It would be like asking a realtor if they think they think the house you are about to buy is going to decrease in value due to a market dip. Of course they will say no, the market is solid. Just keep that in mind.

  2. The card prices have gone WAAY up in the past year. Any market that sees that type of growth will see an adjustment at some point. It will just depend on how much.

  3. The number of people bidding on these cards at $20k+ is very small. I dont have the numbers, but I would guess less than 1000 people. So a relatively small market size. And for sure they are investors. Businesses realistically are the only ones who can afford to spend that much on cards. Yes yes, there will be a few collectors with that type of money, but most of the high end purchases are done by businesses. This is the case for all collectible markets. So the question will be: will these businesses keep pumping money into the expensive cards? Maybe yes. Maybe no. All markets are affected by public perception. Just the fact that this is a common topic means that it is something the community is thinking about, and that is the beginning of a market correction…

***Side note: decreasing prices isnt a bad thing. allows for a cheaper entry point for collectors and players. Pokemon has repeatedly tried to lower the price of cards, and they are doing better than ever

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  1. Logical fallacy that attacks the presenter of the ideas, and not the ideas themselves.

  2. There’s plenty of markets that go up and don’t go down, saying it’s inevitable doesn’t make it true. Examples: University/College prices, the medical field, an even more relatable comparison Sports cards, MTG, etc…

3a. The estimate of under 1,000 paying 20k is a ridiculously low number that’s not true; but even if it was, there’s more Pokémon cards under the 20k mark then over so the explanation of those other cards seeing price increases doesn’t get explained. There’s also far less then 1,000 copies of said $20,000 cards, so 1,000 would be significant competition to stabilize/increase a price point.

3b. The ‘business are the ones buying the cards’ argument doesn’t mean anything to me. A lot of people make tax dodges by writing off personal purchases as business expenses. In order to do that the business has to buy the item, I’m not getting into all the details of this. The point is when a business makes a purchase it’s not that uncommon that it’s an individual making the purchase that doesn’t want to pay government taxes. Even if that’s not the case and it’s the business decision to invest in an item that doesn’t make the purchase invalid, or the competition for the item not real.

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I was with you until #3. The number of bidders on $20k+ pokemon auctions is way smaller than 1000 people. First, how many 20k+ auctions has there even been (not including Y!JPN auctions)? 4 not including Gary’s BIN 5x 9.5 lot? And I don’t believe there was a single ‘business’ among them (although with high-end sellers on ebay I would agree that the line between collector and business is very blurred). If anything, the highest end of the market is stagnating a bit. Three PSA 10 1st ed. charizards have sold one month after another and all ended within $1,000 of one another. That’s basically near 0% growth, whereas the PSA 9 has what, nearly doubled in that same time frame? It’ll be very interesting to see where the PSA 10 shadowless charizard ends at in the next few days. Last auction it went for $11k. I’ve seen a few estimates on the board that think its value should be around 15k some two months later. It’ll be interesting to see if all this crazy growth really is reflected on the most expensive of cards. I’d be interested in hearing what others think about this possible top-end stagnation (or maybe it’s impossible to extrapolate from such a limited number of sales?). Will there be a traffic congestion effect where the halted growth of the top card ends up slowing or even halting the growth of every other card below it? Unfortunately I have no historical knowledge or experience with market corrections either in Pokemon or the financial market at large, maybe I should start looking into some of their telltale economic predictors…

A time period where consolidation of the market/price is a healthy sign. It shows the price is not rejected and shows sustainability on these high levels. So many 1st edition charizard PSA 10’s ending within such a ‘short’ time period all ending within the same price range makes me very optimistic for the future.

We already had a major rise, what we often see in markets is that after such a large rise, we see a pullback in prices. This did not happen, instead, the charizard PSA 10 stayed at the same price point. It also shows there is plenty of market at the 20k range.

To me this is a sign that it will go up again in considerable time. It’s only a matter of time untill the supply of 1st edition PSA 10 zards will dry up again. When this happens, we will see the next spike.

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I disagree with you on all these topics (except for your side note)

  1. In the long term, market will only go up, especially with the growing demand. Supply on ebay has become lower and lower, justifying the price rises. If the current collector base stays, prices will only continue to rise just due to simple supply and demand. Availability has greatly decreased the last couple of months.

  2. At some point yes, this will probably take years and years and years. We have some consolidation periods and a few small pullbacks in price. Only tells me the market is very stable and is willing to grow.

  3. There is loads of people bidding around the 20k numbers, especially for 1st edition Charizards. If there would be 1000 people bidding 20k that would be huge…
    If there were more people in the market for 20k+ cards, the price would have been higher by now.

Can’t let this go.

Scott and I, as well as most high end collectors are not biased to the point of lying to our friends in the hobby. What he tells you in every single one of his videos is exactly what he believes. You all should pay attention.
The market values mean absolutely nothing to us when it comes to our collections. Probably every single member here could verify that. I have my for sale cards, which never seem to get listed, and I got my collection which like scott is like the bottom of an iceberg. They are untouchable though there’s thousands who have tried lol.

So anyway, don’t compare Scott to a realtor or I’ll burn your house down and you’ll need one;)

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I think @pokemonsyndicate is starting to rub off on you.

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Ugh…that’s a scary thought lol.

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Is Pokemom Go why PSA 9 Gretzky rookies used to sell around 5k and now earn around 30k?

Is Pokemon Go why the PSA 10 Gretzky rookie earned $94,000 in 2010 and last sold for $450,000?

Is Pokemon Go why a PSA 8.5 Mickey Mantle rookie earned $154,700 in 2010, and last sold in 2016 for $1,135,250?

Is Pokemon Go why the Basquiat painting sold for $19,000 in 1984 and today earned $111,000,000?

The entire collectibles market has experienced similar growth. Numbers speak for themselves. It’s not just Pokemon.

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Prices were trending one way with or without PoGo. Bit of a moot point really.

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This thread is just filled with fallacious reasoning.

Arguing in favour of what smpratte has to say? Argument from authority.

Arguing that Pokemon GO did not affect the price of sports cards and paintings without any evidence? Argument from ignorance.

Smpratte claims that philosophy is the same as understanding markets in his video? EQUIVOCATION. Trying to make his educational choices appear practical.

The burden of proof being shoved onto the strawman argument that Scotty manufactures in his video.

Even the herpa-derp impression made of the counter-position in the video. 100% ad hominem attack.

So many fallacies. Just so many :wink:

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Search hits for the term ‘Pokemon’ over the last 5 years. Not posting in support of either argument or side, simply posting for the sake of the thread.

Edit:Search term ‘Pokemon trading card game’ for same period. courtesy of @cardcolle

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That info doesnt tell much about the price of wotc cards. Just how many people are trying to get in the hobby (99% are just going to buy some SM packs). People that are buying vintage wont leave the hobby.

There is litterly no relation between people leaving pokemon go AND people leaving the collectable hobby. One of them is a shitty fad, the other is a proven collectible.

Pokemon GO gave the wotc cards a small push going up, people saw the prices going up and finally decided to pay the real price for cards instead of just waiting. Now sellers can finally sell the cards for value, expect to keep paying more for your cards. If you dont like paying that much, someone else will.

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Dont know what you have against realtors? Strange…

Im not saying your or Scott are lying. I am saying that anyone that has a vested interest in a market is going to be bullish/optimistic/promote its growth.

Everyone that is riding the wave of a market and is prospering from it, yourself included, of course wants it to continue. And my experience is that people riding those waves always say that it is going to continue, until it has dropped… examples: housing market, stock market

What are the chances that Pokemon Go’s stagnation has driven people to the cards? There are probably some people that were getting their nostalgic fill from the game, but now that it’s old news, they are turning their attention to other parts of Pokemon.

Just curious about this Pokemon Go bubble situation as I am new to the hobby from a serious collecting perspective. Appreciate seeing everyone’s thoughts on the subject.

Forget POGO. I believe POGO has had an impact on Pokemon, but regardless of the catalyst, Pokemon has had meteoric growth in the past year. METEORIC growth! From $10k cards to $50k cards. That is a 500% increase. Props to the investors that made returns like that. That is insane growth!! This growth is what I am talking about.

Straight market growth is NOT sustainable. Thats not a diss on Pokemon, that is true of every market. Someone mentioned long term growth. While true, Pokemon could still be more valuable long term than today, you have to go through many ups and downs of the market to get to that point.

This past year has been straight up. To my knowledge, there has not been a down yet…

Thats the concern.

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