I didn’t want this post to be lost in the Japanese Market thread, but wanted to produce some awareness of this weird pricing & supply that is happening.
So about a week ago, I placed an order for 200 boxes of Japanese 151 (in which 150 boxes were for people on E4 and others who has reached out) with a well respected Middleman in Japan. The price on SNKRDUNK at the time was $42 a box for 151 and was able to get them around 6600 yen each for an order so large. No longer than 24 hours later, the prices climbed to $46 and a couple days later they were at $54 a box. A 25% increase in price in less than a week.
I kept reaching out to my middleman for an update with no response. It so happens the reason he couldn’t respond was due to a sickness that so happened to catch right when all this was going down. He mentioned that due to the price increase there would be a refund on some of the boxes I ordered…
Come to find out, out of my 200 boxes of 151 I paid for, I was going to receive only 30 boxes… Not good.
I asked more questions on how the price shot up so quickly and they mentioned the supply had dried up and everyone was “Sold Out”. That makes sense since 151 is on of the most talked about sets in the US to “Invest in”.
But something very interesting is happening right now where the price over the last couple of days has slows moved downward and is now hovering back at $44…
Clearly people haven’t lost interest in less than 5 days and clearly they found some more supply in a backroom somewhere . Kind of gives me hints of price manipulation and artificial scarcity.
I wanted to shed some light on how volatile this market for 151 has become in Japan.
I know in the grand scheme of things this won’t matter, but I thought I’d update those who have been following the trends of 151 in Japan.
I don’t know what to make of the 151 reprinting saga. I literally bought a box of it for $200 at a convention because I was convinced just like everyone else that it was never going to be reprinted. And now for months it’s acting like an x girlfriend that won’t leave you alone. I have 2 boxes sitting sealed and a lot of it to eventually grade. Eventually we will look at this thread and be amazed this set was ever this low. Enjoy it while you can.
Japanese 151 boxes have definitely been a bit wonky and volatile over the past few months. I remember when rumors of the first reprint came out, I said I would buy boxes if they hit $70. They hit $70 and I said I’d buy if they hit $60, and that continued until they hit $40
All of the reprint rumors and crazy increases and drops in price, plus everyone and their mother picking up boxes as investments is making me wary of buying in, even at these low prices. I’m left wondering if the better short-medium term play would be black flame boxes at $21, or even paradigm trigger or lost abyss boxes around $40. Like obviously they will go up in time, but pokemon seems to be making a point to print a billion boxes (which is a good thing, btw!) and the market is clearly being manipulated on the Japanese side.
Maybe I am just overthinking it, but in the end its kind of moot because I decided that I want to prioritize purchasing a couple of sealed cases of basketball cards (Wembanyama chase!) instead. If that falls through though, then I need to decide what to do.
1st rule, dont try to be a middle middle man.
2nd rule , dont order and pay for presale ,especially if you are a middle man.
3rd rule, find a trusted seller in Japan. (many shops actually tell there good customers, “wait” “it will go lower” . They will give you good advice.
for 151, a few shops told me to “wait”. “people are panic selling” etc.
Dont be a middle man. sell what you have in stock. save face if you value your reputation.
Many foreign and part time sellers in japan have no loyalty. They cancel and sell to the highest buyer.
LOL, preach. It’s fascinating psychology and something that never seems to change.
@cwebfan23 similarly I didn’t buy any sealed boxes of 151 after the very first print last year. When this year’s reprint was announced the prices plummeted from around £160 GBP to £110-ish. I set myself a price target of £95/box and bought a case at that price. After the latest reprint was announced it since dropped to a low of around £55/box on eBay UK. It was frustrating but I just bought another case. I’ll be picking up another 6 boxes to open soon; the price is currently too attractive to not to open some. I’m currently in an annoying decision dilemma of wanting to buy more 151 vs wanting to do a No Rarity JP Base binder while vintage prices are also so low
This situation has been a big deviation from TPC’s “normal” release patterns and it’s definitely caught both vendors and consumers by surprise. Until now, when it comes to Japanese product releases we’ve seen a pretty consistent pattern of: first big print, followed by one (or occasionally 2) small reprints within several months. A combination of decreased demand for newer releases plus an increase in printing capacity has given TPC the freedom to go back and let the ink fly to a much greater degree than they were able to during the pre- and post-COVID peak demand era. We’re now in this kind of volatile price tug-of-war between the bullish idea that this is a brilliant set, versus the bearish idea that it’s now been printed into the ground.
I think someone in the 151 reprint thread asked “are any reprint boxes being opened” or are they all stored away sealed as investments… I’m also wondering because with all the reprints I’d assume that some card prices would be coming down, but I haven’t seen that happening with like SAR zapdos that I’m still waiting to pick up.
It would be a shame if all the new stock is going straight into storage.
Not a huge sealed guy but bought a couple cases recently as the price has been too good not to. I think people forget that just at the start of the year boxes were going for $150 - $200.
With the prices droping, I ended up opening the box I got from JP Pokemon Center last year (my 3rd box overall). Although I didn’t get any major hits, it reminded me just how fun the set is to open. Slowly filling up binder pages and replacing non-holos with regular reverses is such a dopamine hit. Reminds me of filling up the Pokedex for the first time when I played Red & Blue as a kid.
With the policy in Japan that some stores rip open the shrink wrap before purchase as well as a heavy discount for non-skrinkwrapped boxes, I would say a good 30-60% of 151 boxes are being opened. Especially with all the streamers and Whatnot sellers out there who are buying 100 boxes at a time.
Japanese sellers with pictures taken in their bedroom/living room.
Also, Non Japanese sellers selling out of Japan , Just a ethical choice, they are abusing the tax exempt polices and a major factor that caused the inflated prices in Japan last year.
I’d wager it’s a mix of both. My friend and I are going out to buy a box each this week. My friend will crack theirs and I’m keeping mine for display since I love the box art
Same. Ill probably rip my box i got from when it was made to order and pick up a few cases. Probably just gonna say fuck it and buy off ebay cause i dont have any connections or other places to buy
. Kind of gives me hints of price manipulation and artificial scarcity.
Price may seem unsettled now but they’re certainly not done flooding the set