Hypothetical black swan event - TPC announces that the lottery will be cancelled because it overestimated the amount of leftover boxes from Worlds. 
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Unless part of your business model is the short-term flip, people are way overthinking the trajectory of this card.
Just buy your fill, wait, and enjoy.
Also, as others have said previous threads, population report is a lot less relevant than some seem to think it is. Look at Stamp Box Pikachu; super easy to grade a 10, almost 8k in the pop, sold prices between £500 and £700 GBP less than 24 months on. Unique release, unique art, beautiful art, language-exclusive and limited-window distribution all help drive demand. Whether Worlds ‘23 Pikachu will share all of these traits is to be determined, but we know it already shares some of them. Time will reveal the rest!
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In that case wouldn’t they just do the lottery but with fewer winners. Easier than cancelling the whole thing
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This ^
Thank you. Everyone always talks about how the pop report for some of these newer cards is high. Agreed. But its all relative to demand.
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I honestly see this card bottoming out at 200 or maybe the high 100s before it begins its annual upward trajectory like the stamp pikachu.
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The real question is how much of this demand is people who like the card vs people who want to make money on it and see it as an easy flip
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That is pretty hard to tell the difference until it isn’t flippable anymore.
Thats a tricky question. Usually the flipping number is high but exclusive japan promos straight from tpci are less nowadays compared to lets say 4-5 years ago.
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Its interesting. I bought three. I had intended on opening one and keeping the promo long term and then for sure holding on to another sealed deck for long term collection and maybe flip the third one right way or maybe hold on to it really just because I’ve spent a lot of money in general lately and getting some of it back would be helpful.
All of the negative sentiment about the price and hows its going to crash has me thinking I need to for sure dump that third one. But I don’t know, we live in the sealed collector era. I think a good chunk will be absorbed by those people who will keep it sealed in a box for a few years or longer. Then you have the fact this promo card is one of the best looking Japanese promo cards I’ve seen in awhile and has the Festa vibes to it.
Having now seen the card in person, it is an incredible card. Like wow, just stunning. Idk time will tell but this could be a case of demand staying pretty high on this. I’m sure it will dip but I’m not so sure the bottom will fall out of it like some are anticipating.
Don’t let these peasants affect your collection
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$40-70 raws inc
It’s not unexpected when “raw” comes with an 85% chance of becoming a $500 PSA 10
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Ayyy PS9 gang
Yes but compared to literally all other Raw VS PSA 9, it is always at or most cases below that price. It just doesn’t make sense.
Man and these prices keep falling without the “reprint” of the pkm center lottery.
Seems like the $100 is on the horizon.
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Doesn’t look like its fallen that much to me. That 10 sold for over $500 with the deck! The raw fell some. Idk its still pretty high. Demand for this card is up there. I have a couple and they are legit in person. Looks really really good in person. I personally would be very surprised if it dropped down to $100 but that’s me. $100 is less than a lot of set SAR’s go for and those are likely printed more than these.
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theres tens of thousands (if not a hundred thousand) of these printed. 2 online lotteries and the world’s pokemon center never sold out on these. I got to go in every day of worlds and these never went out of stock.
my guess is that the 2nd lottery is actually for leftovers from world’s
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Thanks for the insight 
Wouldn’t that be about what the Stamp Box promo print numbers are and look at them? It’s still a Japanese exclusive card everyone wants. There is potentially enough demand to keep the price high. I wouldn’t be surprised if prices come down, but $100 seems low to me based on popularity. Who knows though we are all speculating. Maybe in a few months no one will care. I personally want this in my collection and it was a priority for me. If they drop in price I’ll probably buy more lol.
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