By chase cards I mean like old shinings, gold stars, Crystal types, 1st edition etc. Some of these cards have gotten to be very expensive and I personally don’t see why the prices would ever drop again. I guess I am thinking about it like a stock. Stocks fluctuate a lot and some real world occurrences cause stock prices to plummet or crash? If this did happen with old Pokemon cards what could cause it?
Here are three situations where you may see a plummet in price:
-
A massive amount of ungraded mint cards is discovered.
-
Everyone that owns a copy of a given card is selling at the same time and everyone tries to undercut each other.
-
Buyers stop buying these cards.
These are left purposely vague. If you can’t think of a reasonable real-world situation where these events would happen, then that should tell you a lot about whether or not card prices will plummet.
6 Likes
Over-saturation of the market. (Highly improbable as the supply is not high enough for most of these cards)
Huge decline in collecting, and I mean huge, which would lead me back to point 1.
So in short, they SHOULDN’T crash or plummet.
2 Likes
Not a shot if you ask me. Neo Destiny for Shinings, e-Series for Crystals and beginning of the Nintendo/TPCI era for Gold Star cards all tell me that these won’t drop in price. These big chase cards all ironically come from some of the most scarce sets out there in this hobby. I actually never realized this fact until I typed out this reply just now lol.
If you think about it, we really haven’t had chase cards like these for about 10 years now. The only cards that are starting to gain traction from a 2010 set onward are the Call of Legends SL cards.
I think it is worth noting that this would apply better to an established market value.
Plenty of times cards can sell within a fairly large price range, depending on a bunch of factors. But even then, if there are enough public sales, you can determine a reasonable price at which you could buy or sell that card for.
Like the PSA 10 Shining Charizard 1st Edition has sold between 2000-2500 many times recently. While I think the market is now drying up for those, one sale of it for $1500 on eBay is less likely to change the price, than if it sells for $3000 tomorrow.
A situation in which supply greatly outweighs demand. Even in those types of situations it is more likely that we would see a fluctuation in a single card rather than the whole subset. For instance a significant increase in Psa population for Shining Noctowl. Although, it matters how much of the pop is available on the market at the time as well.
We saw something like this happen when the gold star hoard came onto the market. The three Unseen Forces gold stars took a major dip in market value because everyone knew they were out there. The psa population increased significantly as well. However, gold stars as a whole remained stable and even increased despite the (unlikely) threat of another hoard appearing.
2 Likes
Sorry for this, I’m in a meme-y mood.
This is just a weird case, where hype caused the price to go way higher, and so then a lot of people started to sell them.
I think long term, no, but for short term, yes. Try to not make decides based of hype and think in the end it will all work out.
2 Likes