The problem is that in many cases, casual collectors just do not want to spend triple digits or the better half of 100$ on a raw card. Which is where a lot of the vintage market is at now (in addition to an increasing amount of modern cards of popular characters).
Its not so much that people can’t afford these prices and moreso that they can’t justify the high tag for a good with no extrinsic value and limited usage overall (really, only display).
You should see art collectors then.
I really doubt that. I have sympathy for people who can´t afford these prices (at whatever point they´re at), but Pokémon is like art/stocks. Yeah, of course they don´t work exactly like stocks, but they have become an investment. People are willing to pay these prices.
I do think at some point we’ll decline or stagnate again for a while. I kind of feel like in the past few months we’re at a high point in this uptrend cycle or close to it. I bought a lot of vintage in 2022/2023 when the market cooled off heavily from Covid and back in those days I told myself I’d be happy if some day down the road a lot of the cards I bought would gradually grow over the next 5-10 years. Vintage WOTC became extremely unpopular for at least a year or more, while people kept accumulating modern more heavily (Moonbreon, etc).
Turns out now many of the cards I’ve bought back then have seen significant appreciation/growth, some 10-15x or more, which is honestly way beyond what I ever expected to happen in such a short period of time. Even my best stock I own is up 150-200% since 2022 which is also way above average, but no where close to my Pokemon collection.
The main thing I’ve learned out of all of this is never really know where things could end up, for better or worse. Even what might look expensive today could just as well look ‘cheap’ in another 5 years or so (or sooner). There was even a few cards I looked at recently that still seemed slept on to me a bit and hadn’t gone up as much, but I’ve seen those go up all of a sudden as well at most auctions I’ve watched.
So anyway, when things seem a bit ‘crazy’ or like it’ll never stop going up in my experience usually means we’re near a high level or possible ‘bubble’. But I think that if you have a long term plan/vision for Pokemon, that a lot can and will eventually change again at some point in the market. If it does go dead/quiet, that’ll be your chance to pick up what you always wanted.
Patience can pay off massively in this hobby or with any investment, you just have stay in and play out the highs and lows and it will pay off eventually. Just stick to your convictions and enjoy the ride.
Pokemon may currently be the highest grossing media franchise, but the top place has changed many times over the decades and likely will again at some point. The current growth is certainly unsustainable for much longer.
Some stuff I come across gives me a reality check. When an old-rare-mint-low pop-popular Pokemon card can sell for less than the grading fee in a time when the market is hot, that is a stark reminder that even age and strong fundamentals can still be meaningless.
Now imagine modern cards, they don’t have anywhere near as strong fundamentals, so even age/time won’t guarantee they will be more valuable in the future.
Personally I think people are wildly overpaying for most modern stuff, insane amounts compared to what else they could do with that money outside of this hobby or how long it takes to earn in the real world
I like this take. I think these days it´s popular to confuse arguments for truth. There are arguments to be given for both sides (it may be unsustainable, and it may not be). Let us acknowledge this and just enjoy each others arguments instead of polarising.
