There is a price that I have in mind for almost every card on my want list. If it’s more than what I would be comfortable/willing to pay, I don’t buy it. Simple as that.
The only exception to this rule is that sometimes I will overpay if it’s being financed by selling other cards in my collection. This is akin to trading in my head and feels more reasonable to me (though the cash required and outcome are identical).
Regarding the market, there are some types of cards that I think are on very precarious grounds and others that I think were undervalued and will continue to hold strong prices. Globally, I do expect some type of Pokemon TCG downturn in the next few years.
I do not expect this dip to be as absolute as the Japanese Waifu boom where prices fell to pre-boom levels. Those are “true” bubbles where the demand is inflated due to FOMO or manipulation and the latent supply of ungraded PSA 10 candidate cards is huge. There has been too much genuine growth from Pokemon Pocket, the release of Scarlet/Violet, excitement around Z-A, Worlds, etc. for things to fall from the sky.
But as always, each boom will bring only a portion of long-term collectors.
As I mention elsewhere…
Something that I haven’t seen a lot of on this thread or on e4 is the “collector cycle.” Most people enter a hobby for - on average - 12-24 months. Very few people leave a hobby the same year that they pick it up and most do not stay longer than two years. This is especially true in the TCG/CCG world.
Every boom and bust cycle is accompanied by an inflation in the collector base and a shedding of the excess when prices go back down. I believe that we are entering the “shedding” period where the prices will soften, the number of serious collectors will shrink, the amount of money spent on a given month/year will lessen, and some sellers - maybe even most - will begin to feel financial stress from their once-healthy hobby income.
1-2 years is a long time. Children grow up, teens graduate high school, college students change majors and eventually leave for the workforce, and adults change jobs, have families, and move around the country/world. Sticking with a hobby through major life events - including financially demanding life events (e.g., paying for college, a new baby, a home, etc.) - is extremely difficult. We may not feel this way because e4 is comprised of very serious collectors who would rather die than to leave their hobby, but this isn’t really the case among most people who enjoy shiny cardboard.