Most of those holos will be PSA 8 at best, even if they went straight from the pack to the binder. 25 years is a lot of time for dust to get inside and cause micro scratches and such. This typically sends the grade down to an 8. At least that was my typical experience when I graded my always-in-a-binder holos from my childhood collection.
Non-holos are different though. 10s can more plausibly still be out in the wild in old forgotten collections. I got quite a few 10s from my non-holo e-series bulk from the same collection.
I’m wondering how much the current situation at PSA is changing the supply dynamics compared to past cycles, especially for lower grade cards.
The new prices make it worth it to grade a new section of my ungraded collection (looking at my binder page of washed and dry cleaned lenticular deoxys cards), but upcharges disincentivize me from doing so if I don’t have any intention of selling right away. At the same time, I do not want to sell these cards ungraded.
Back in 2020, there was much less friction in the way of ungraded cards finding their way into the pop reports. If it was suddenly worth it to grade a card, you graded the card to have the flexibility to sell. The gigantic PSA backlog then created a dynamic where some cards drowned in graded supply after a delay.
Today, I believe there might be a smaller, more consistent delayed supply of cards after a sudden price movement like we had, especially for cards that still have lower grades as cheaper options. As for the effect on prices, perhaps it will simply reduce volatility.
I’m just curious when the market will finally convince me to remove the first classroom pika from my binder
Collectible cards have existed for decades before Pokemon, there were 100% people who understood the value of vintage and bought sealed en masse back in the 90s. I’d be shocked if there aren’t at least a handful of people with dozens of untouched boxes of sets who simply haven’t had a need to sell.
If the cheaper option shows up I would bet it is driven by demand-side shifts rather than supply-side. By that I don’t (only) mean people disappearing from the hobby but rather something like fear or caution that pulls back a lot of the astronomical prices to a more realistic equilibrium. Think of the 2020 PSA 10 Neo Genesis Lugia pricing trend but on a larger scale. And of course not like this is going to apply to every card. I mentioned in the Market Thread that I would look to PSA 9 vs PSA 10 pricing as an indicator. When the lower grades start getting pulled up significantly it’s an indicator of how deep the demand goes. This is well reflected in very desirable cards like trophies or scream promos.
When the price is determined by a smaller number of deep pockets, the price volatility is much higher. We see that volatility now on the upward trajectory, I see it only as a matter of time to see it on the downward trajectory too. Again, not for all cards. And also, it doesn’t me we are going to see past prices again. Just like in the past, many card that see decline still settle at prices much higher than they used to be.
The resupply will not come from newly graded cards, yet from cards that have already been in circulation for a while being freed up by people who have over leveraged themselves in cardboard and can no longer afford to hold on at the high prices they payed to acquire them
Your question is the same question I asked back in January and it’s what inspired my massive vintage PSA 10 buying spree. I went against the grain if you just look at the majority of E4’s suggestions, which seems to be avoiding these prices and waiting for the dip. There seems to be this widespread belief that it’s uneducated, impulsive crypto bros just pumping up everything, and we’re setting up for a massive crash. I have no doubt there will be some correction at some point, but the belief that this recent boom is spurred mostly by crypto bros who will paper hand their cards as soon as the market dips just doesn’t match what I’m seeing.
I’ve had more and more doctors and lawyers my age (40) finally lift their head up after grinding their careers for 10+ years, asking about vintage cards. For them, when they see a $30,000 PSA 10 corocoro mew, their first thought isn’t “but that’s been $4k forever”…they think “damn that looks awesome (and pretty affordable for how rare and old it is).” This is a generation that’s finally turning back to their childhood after gaining financial stability and reaching the peaks of their career…and they’re not selling in a market downturn. There will be more doctors/lawyers/bankers turning back to Pokemon after finally making head surgeon/named partner/VP of Sales, etc, more than the number of PSA 10s out on the market. I’m sure supply will continue to trickle in, but not enough to supply these people making $1 mil+ per year. And once cards reach the hands of these folks, they don’t care if it dips 50%, these cards are getting locked up in a collection.
That all makes sense, and I’m sure high earners like you describe are driving these increases.
However, the PSA 10 cards commanding these steep valuations are not all equal. Grading is highly inconsistent. There are many cases when 10s in clearly worse condition than 9s are nonetheless selling for 20-50x more.
If even those 10s are elevated by the same types of people you describe, then it can only be explained by their lack of experience with grading (for being new to the hobby), or they simply don’t care, because they are really buying the grade, not the card.
If it’s a knowledge gap, that should correct over time as they get more educated about grading and condition. Markets optimize over time.
If it’s because they are really “buying the grade”, then that’s speculation and/or status signaling, and that kind of demand might not be as sticky and can easily shift with time.
In either case some of these 10 premiums we are seeing seem unsustainable in the long term.
Respectfully, I would say that the people you’re describing are a very small number of people and doesn’t answer where the product is going to come from. What are your thoughts on how those people will influence where we get product?
They are definitely buying the grade. These are people who are at the top of their fields, and in their mind, they don’t want 9s.
But I’m curious why you don’t think buying the grade will stick. These folks are not buying for speculation in order to resell: they’re buying the grade, buying the low pop, and buying the prestige of a PSA 10. If anything, I think buying for status is probably the stickiest reason of all for these folks. Buying for prestige/status in a hobby you (and the entire world) like is something as old as time. It’s what drives these high achiever buyers to get PSA 10s and what will prevent them from selling during a downturn.
First of all, this high earner group is small but very large in comparison to the pop of some of these PSA 10s. And there will only be more and more high earners in the coming years. Look at this forum and discord…most people here tend to trend very young, maybe just starting their careers or in the middle of their careers.
Second, my response did address the question, which is highlighting that no matter where the “new” supply will come from (whether it’s actual new collections coming out of closets or people selling their current holdings), it won’t be enough to satisfy the growing number of high earners who want these products. The important question isn’t “where is the supply coming from,” it’s “will the supply be enough”…and I think it’s going to be a definite no. There will be more high earners wanting these products and locking them up in PCs.
Because buying the grade (especially in the situation I described) can mean they are objectively buying a worse condition card, and paying 20-50x more for it.
We can genuinely disagree, but to me that’s unsustainable and can only remain possible so long as overall demand in the hobby remains as strong as it is today.
If we experience a retraction in popularity and demand, I expect status signalers to be a prime source of cards going back on the market, as they move to whatever the next thing is.
Here’s the disconnect: you want a PSA 10 because you want an objectively near perfect condition card. And that’s fair, that’s what we should want. But these buyers want a PSA 10…that just happens to be a very well conditioned card (maybe). And once they buy a PSA 10, you know how happy they are? Extremely happy, because they now have a PSA 10. They get exactly what they asked for. You can’t get happier than that.
I mean I’m wondering why we’re talking about high earners paying for vintage PSA 10s, when that doesn’t address the supply of those sets that the 10s came from lol
