Yes because all the base set holos, 1st edition, shadowless and unlimited have done the opposite over the past 5 years, which made me think boxes follow the price of the singles but in the ex era it is the other way around.
Edit: psa 10 unlimited poliwrath went from 60-70 to 350 (5x)
Base set booster box went from 5k to 12k in the same period
This is the exception rather than the rule. Base set singles are the singles to collect. It probably also saw the most sealed demand in 2020-2021 so in a relative sense it was the most inflated. If i had to bet, over time the trend will inverse and follow what we see in ex era today
Thereâs a big difference between buying a pack and hoping to pull a card worth 10x the pack price and buying a pack and hoping to pull a card worth 2x the pack price. Would someone pay $5/pack for a chance at a $10 card? Yet thatâs whatâs happening with Dragon. And itâs even more extreme than that because you can buy those same cards in PSA 9 for under the price of a pack.
Basically, I donât even see how a Dragon box break (for instance) has appeal to gamblers.
Again, youâre trying to apply logic to an irrational decision. It doesnât ever make sense to place even a single bet at a casino but humans dump billions to trillions into them yearly.
Not really when you say it like that 
i always just thought box expensive bc card expensive, so it would be weird to see those split. It makes sense that sealed product could just be its own category unrelated to singles, it just contradicts what ive thought to be true up to this point
Important with respect to the psychology here
Gambling is always irrational. But there are degrees of irrationality. Itâs understandable (albeit still irrational) to gamble on $5 packs in hopes to open a $50 card.
I donât, however, even see the appeal of gambling x for a small chance at 2x.
I donât know what to say. We can all agree this is an irrational choice but clearly people are still making it.
Well like it was stated earlier, its also largely just the parasocial relationship with streamers. Its not just about getting that 1000$ card but getting it from your favorite streamers opening. I think we can relate to cards that weâve pulled/graded ourselves being more sentimentally valuable than simply buying one.
I think itâs a bit reductive to say its simply gambling for an expensive card. Whether its through a streamer opening or you yourself buying packs, there is something special to people pulling cards themselves that justifies that price tag to some.
Did some quick research but have not enough data on sealed boosterbox prices over time so had to do it with pwcc sales data.
This is my quick conclusion so it might be flawed.
From base to neo to skyridge about every holo psa 9 / 10 i checked did outperform sealed product over the past 3 to 5 years.
Psa 10 outperformed by a lot.
Psa 9 basically kept up with sealed or did slightly better.
But yes 9/10 can buy a single graded card but not a lot of people can affor a box.
hey dragon is the skyridge of nintendo eseries, give it some credit. I also think using the cgc 10 prices may skew the ev downwards because psa 10 prices can be almost double.
also the cards may not be crazy expensive but the 2x ex pull rate in the first 3 nintendo sets does create more safety in opening. Youre twice as likely to get an ex than all other sets, even though many of the exs themselves are not crazy valuable. basically the ev is more spread out so in some ways its safer to open, because everyone knows if you get a regular holo in an ex set you done fucked up
Just a few thoughts:
As time goes by, the expected value of a given booster box will be eclipsed many-fold by the value of the sealed product. Sealed product will always be higher than the EV, unless something completely crazy happens (arbitrage). This is not unique to Pokemon or to TCGs.
As others have stated, viewers engage with streamers who they idolize. Buying a pack from them is a completely irrational move to maintain a parasocial relationship. It allows the buyer to hear their name said live and obtain cards that were opened live, forever living on the internet.
This type of parasocial relationship is not exclusive to the big streamers, but it is certainly inflated there. I know of and met many smaller WhatNot/Drip/Twitch streamers who crack thousands of dollars of booster boxes per night for their community. Their fanbase wants to feel included and spending money (irrationally so) allows them to be an acknowledged part of the community. When I asked them about their fanbase, they told me that theyâre mostly young people (teens, young adults) who are spending their money from work and that they love the culture of their community (Twitch, Discord, Reddit, etc.). Itâs no different than a Twitch sub throwing money to their favorite streamer, but this allows them to get something in return.
Breakers will never leave. Itâs the easiest/laziest way to make money in the Pokemon social media space. Why would they leave their cash cow?
Box breaks of expensive/desirable sets are not unique to Pokemon. You can find them in MTG, Weiss, Yu-Gi-Oh, Lorcana, Metazoo, and everywhere in the sports world.
Opening a rarer or more-hyped box does lead to an increase in viewership. You can see this directly on any streamerâs YouTube/Twitch metrics.
EX box prices are sustainable, but mostly because the product supply is much lower than WoTC era. Retracement of sealed product comes when more is brought to market. That just isnât the case with the EX era due to its lower print runs.
It is interesting to me that people will pay high prices for non-
sets. I think it goes back to the parasocial relationship and the excitement of getting to open an old pack. There is a lot of fear among buyers that theyâll get a resealed or weighed pack. This way, they are 100% certain that the pack is unweighed and authentic + they get the momentary notoriety in the community, and that is worth the premium to some.
Last point (sorry for the long post) is that each (English) booster box opening only needs to sell 36 packs. And some people will buy multiple packs. So itâs not that hard to find a few dozen people to take part. If you had a following of 10,000 subscribers, and only 1% wanted to buy packs from you, that would still be more than sufficient. That point is sometimes lost in translation.
I pretty much agree, I personally like non gold star ex sets but I understand that hype sells. Though the non gold star sets have a more normally spread ev which could be appealing to some and some ex cards do maintain hype outside of gold stars.
For the longest time I never quite bought the âoh ex is SOOO scarceâ argument, but its gotten to a point where even the worst set (hidden legends) is close to 10k. At this point, even if you believe in ex to the most aggressive degree, youâd dump some if you had the stock. I genuinely now think its just not out there in mass. I know some wotc collectors dumping wotc and moving to ex soley based on the fun of the hunt they get with ex. Im sure this movement happens in both directions though. At this point, if a new multi-millionaire comes into pokemon and wants to build a position in sealed ex, I legitimately think it would be tough to acquire a big stock due simply to supply. Or at least it would be tougher than if they wanted to aquire wotc (which is avalible as sealed boxes in my local LGS for example).
sorry to make this all about sealed ex, the main purpose of the thread was not to really do that. Its my inner hoenn hoe. I think these points do apply to some wotc as well, and maybe even D&P (though there seems to be some more inventory there)
Stop talking about your ex! Move on!
Just to further reinforce my point:
Just won the most expensive card in the set in gem condition for $710. So the discrepancy is actually even more extreme than I thought.
But hmm, I couldâve instead purchased an unweighed booster pack from some rando on Instagram 
.
Awesome card, and crazy prices.
Iâm in the same boat, just bought a PSA 9 Japanese base set Charizard for âŹ700.
THE best card to get from a pack, ok not PSA 10, but still, for the price or two boosters who both probably donât contain a holoâŠ
I donât think the price of the pack has anything to do what may or may not be in the pack. It has to do with the rarity of the item. As more and more people collect sealed, the pack becomes more rare and more desirable (stonk).
I dont think it is that simple.
For some sets the boxes got more expensive because the cards have become more expensive like base set and for other sets cards have become cheaper but box prices didnt.
I think sealed boxes are a bit boring and i would take all the cards in mint condition for 1/10 the price any day of the week and i think there are many others thinking the same.
Yeah base set boxes are expensive. 14k is wild
I agree that the cards are more interesting than the sealed item, I also agree that streamers have an influence on the price of sealed boxes. However, I also believe that enough people collect sealed product and view a sealed booster box separately from the cards that are inside. Therefore, if the cards of a set decrease in value but the sealed product is rare, the price of the sealed will rise disproportionately to the singles due to demand and lack of supply.
