It’s a not a meaningless line. With a large enough sample size, you could determine the pull rate with a very high degree of confidence. 8000 is better than 4000, but still wildly insufficient.
1 Like
In the world that I previously only knew that 8000 I’d agree would be nowhere near enough. What I now know is this.
How many packs would you say is enough? 100,000?
It depends on what confidence level you want. I’m sure there are people here who could explain the math much better than I could, so I’ll defer to them. But if you just want a concrete answer, it’s not a matter of what I think – there are tons of calculators online where you can figure these sorts of things out.
2 Likes
What about sample size of 11,664 packs? It’s good enough for me and I appreciate TS’s efforts.
I honestly can’t believe that someone is seriously arguing against math.
Then again, lots of stuff have been argued against in the past few years that beggars belief.
5 Likes
Lol math has changed throughout history plenty of examples out there and plenty of changes to come. Nothing’s fixed it’s all fluid.
We’re talking about basic statistics; not exactly a high-level, unsettled area of math. If you want to doubt the validity of high school-level statistics, then be my guest. Either way, I don’t see this being a fruitful conversation – someone else can feel free to take the reins here lol
9 Likes
1 Like
Everything is based on something which is based on something which is based on something… One mistake in that line and you get nonsense out. I used to live in a world where I thought you could mostly take things at face value. Years of number theory changed that. Basically a red pill blue pill moment so now I know yet I still have to interact in the old way a lot of the time to stay grounded. No probs ending the convo there.
This is not a particularly difficult statistical question. With a large enough sample size, the pull rate becomes a normal distribution under the central limit theorem. If you can get a nice bell curve shape, you can estimate the true pull rate. The rarer the pull rate, the more packs you have to open for this to work.
Basically, if you open packs and you’re not pulling at least 30ish umbreon, you’re not going to have a very reliable measure of the pull rate.
5 Likes
Please glance this.
This one is better to read. Same person but more details.
Fun and relevant. 
Did you read the articles? Both headlines are very misleading. The guy is talking about reverifiying old proofs to make sure no one made a mistake in the past that gets treated as valid today.
The central limit theorem is used all the time everywhere. More important than being right, its useful. And probably everything from airplanes to smartphones would not work if it wasn’t a valid concept
1 Like
When you come back from work, just to check how your thread is doing. And all you see is this:
9 Likes
Yes of course Ive read both articles I wouldn’t send out otherwise. For some reason I was shown how the universe actually works and it came with an extremely heavy toll.
Not everything is what it appears to be.
It is an exhausting thread, but maybe one day, we will find out exactly what happened to moonbreons price
7 Likes
I’ve had a look. Dip dip then an exhaustive sell off as everyone panics to not lose massively on what was an enormous high point.
You are taking this way too serious.
Maybe go outside a bit and think about something else.
Moonbreon isn’t a religion.
2 Likes