You need over 1m packs to get an accurate pull rate of individual cards in the “full art” rarity, so the best we have to work with are:
Rarity pull rate
How the cards are printed on the sheet
Someone has been compiling data for every set on this forum - though obviously it’s not known which cards of the same rarity are printed more, you can just use simple division to know the ratio.
Anything that presents multiple cards with individual pull rates is misleading misinformation. Pokemon are not choosing multiple rates or 25 rates in the same rarity.
Similar story here. Back in 2021 when I realised I could sell my childhood cards for cold hard cash. Ended up browsing eBay for sold prices and kept seeing cool cards that I wanted - decided to just try to complete my old collections instead.
Found EFour through researching base 1999-2000 (4th print cards that I remember being really confused about as a kid!) - now have 102/102.
I wonder why pokemon doesn’t put pull rates on its packs. Maybe because it’ll get out properly that to complete a set is going to cost on average silly money.
Umbreon is the price it is because it is hailed as the “king” of modern, in the same way Charizard is the king of vintage (my opinions on that are very different, as I am sure others might agree with, but this is the majority sentiment). Because it is king, the market has set a price that seems fair for the best of the best. The fact that the pull rates make it seem almost mythical to pull for the average person (completely ignoring the fact that there are way more out there than people realize) makes that price seem justified to the average collector. The price doesnt reflect its value the way other cards do. Moonbreon price might dip if there is a new “king” crowned for modern, but even then i have my doubts. I think this one will be held up through the generations to come as “The holy grail I could never pull.” Some tweens today may be very tempted to pick it up 5-10 years from now when they have jobs and feel nostalgic.
Also, why are you only looking at the Umbreon pull rate? Just look at the pull rate of alt arts and deduce what Umbreon’s pull rate is from that. That way you don’t need nearly as large of a data sample. Unless you’re contending that Umbreon has a different pull rate than other alt arts in the set?
Before the exposure of factory thefts, people might think so (that all alt arts have same pull rates). After the thefts were exposed, people don’t think so…
Do you have a good basis for believing that Moonbreon has a lower pull rate than other alt arts? The fact that some “people don’t think so” isn’t a very good basis and neither is the fact that some were stolen from the factory. With the UF gold stars, thousands of copies were stolen from the factory without any apparent impact on pull rates.
Basically, I’d proceed under the assumption that the pull rate for Umbreon is the same as it is for other alt arts absent strong evidence to the contrary.
I feel like discussing pull rates & the odds of theft effecting the pull rates, is just so pointless. I would wager that 1000 more or 1000 less raw Umbreons in circulation worldwide would have a negligible effect on price.
As I said before, his next case could have had Umbreon #2, which lowers his pull rate data in half.
We can’t call that the official pull rate when only one was pulled.
Pull rates are fixed. 4000 packs really doesn’t mean anything.
To illustrate this, let’s assume for the sake of argument that the pull rate is 1/4000. Based on that pull rate, if you open 4000 packs, the chance of each outcome would be roughly as follows:
37% chance of pulling 0
37% chance of pulling 1
18% chance of pulling 2
6% chance of pulling 3
<2% chance of another outcome
But if the pull rate is 1/2000, a sample size of 4000 would result in a:
14% chance of pulling 0
27% chance of pulling 1
27% chance of pulling 2
18% chance of pulling 3
9% chance of pulling 4
4% chance of pulling 5
Do you see how meaningless a sample size of 4000 is? With that sample size, for instance, there’s a >25% chance of pulling exactly 1 copy regardless of whether the fixed pull rate is 1/2000 or 1/4000. You would need a way, way, way larger sample size to actually determine what the pull rate is.
