Vintage has already been optimised, most of its cards experienced their peak since the 2020 boom so I’d say it’s fairly valued right now. I don’t expect another surge anytime soon because most adults have also experienced the correction afterward. Modern is certainly overvalued because of the hype but if you’re using Evolving Skies as an example, it’s more uncertain. That set is more than 3 years old, officially out of rotation and its flagship card never dropped to its lowest point since despite accumulating 14,174 PSA 10s. Is hype supposed to last that long?
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Hm, I don´t think it has been. A lot of people having vintage really like their cards. Couple that with the fact that POP´s are low, and there is not a whole lot of people willing to part with them. Modern is really hot right now, and rightfully so since some of the newer cards are beautiful, but there will come a point where some of these newer fans will turn to vintage. The chase is often harder and, it was the start. If that happens than it can have a big impact given the low POP´s. Let´s not forget that the original Moonbreon was in Neo Discovery.
I think the reason that vintage started to go down after 2021 was that a lot of these people coming in during that boom were into vintage, and left. They have now reached the bottom and are starting to rise. But, as pointed out, not all of them will since a lot of the older holo´s feature forgotten Pokémon.
I think this assumption won’t work if the eventual conclusion is to chase the low pop cards. The barrier to entry for conditional rarity in vintage is already very high, if anything people who started with modern that then want to branch into vintage will be more likely to collect lower grades or ungraded only
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Yeah, that would make sense to me. However, it seems like these days everyone is into investing, and for investing 10´s are a lot more popular. I think some cards will go up again, others won´t.
It´s actually interesting that at one point I was really thinking about paying 5k for that first edition Smeargle. Such an awesome card. Glad that I didn´t.
Not if they’re millionaires from their surging sparks investment
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It’s possible to enjoy vintage without shelling out thousands for PSA 10s. Many cards become so much more approachable with this mindset.
PSA 10s are also super risky investments as they can fluctuate downwards by several thousands from one sale to the next. Low pop ones are more volatile as well due to fewer sales so there isn’t a good baseline.
True, but that goes for both vintage and modern. PSA 10´s are what investors value most → most newcomers are investors. Sealed is (in most cases) king though.
But the thing is, the hobby is growing. So a better question would maybe be; will vintage and modern go up. The answer is probably yes, although there are always exceptions.
I don’t think it’s possible to tell if most newcomers are investors or not. They’re a huge chunk for sure, but we can’t know how much they represent. They definitely are here in numbers that dwarf anything prior so the future is very unclear.
I think we have at minimum another full year of this modern hype just based on the strength of the upcoming few sets. After that idk
Yeah, didn´t say that correct, but I meant a large portion is indeed investors. I think it´s just very clear that the hobby is bigger than ever and that will mean that a lot of products are going to be ´undervalued´ now.
True. And while it’s impossible to get the numbers I think it’s totally safe to say that a ton of new people are just investing. Happened in COVID and many left, it’s happening again RN with modern specifically and I don’t see why they’d stay long term once we start to retrace again or have a down tick in the economy
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This could be the case. Still, to me it feels different this time.
The hype in 2016 lasted for about a year. The same goes for the covid hype (a little longer, but still, by the second half of 2021 prices were retracting). This time it seems like Pokémon really knows what they´re doing. Right now it´s already on for about half a year and I don´t see it slowing down in 2025, or even 2026 (anniversary).
Evolving Skies psa 9s can be an exception compared to other modern sets. The demand is on another lvl. SWSH chase cards psa 9s also have plenty of room to grow.
SWSH era sets are really popular and loved by many collectors. The art works are amazing and the chase cards are liquid. I dont see why they wouldnt continue to grow at a healthy pace. Vintage 9s seem to have plateaued for awhile now. At least for my collection. Not speaking as a whole.
Sidenote, I personally see this as an opportunity to grab some vintage 9s for myself 
Some vintage chase cards have kinda exploded in value over the past few months. To name a few:
Shining Gyarados 1st Edition
Skyridge Umbreon
Skyridge Gengar
Masaki Gengar
Remains to be seen if prices hold or it’s just a result of short-term hype.
Umbreon ex unseen forces just passed 8k
Maybe it just Umbreon and Gengar tax catching up 
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I don’t think it’s coincidence with Umbreon and gengar being 2 of the biggest swsh modern stonkers
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This has gotta be a meme. Theres no way
Speaking in general terms…
The market has had 20+ years to flesh out the price of vintage so the most likely scenario is that it is closer to equilibrium and appropriately priced. At the very least it has far less exposure on the downside.
Modern could be overpriced or underpriced at this point.
Time will tell.
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