I don’t think anyone would suggest that they will rival or catch up with 1st Edition, but they could prove to be just as good regarding an investment pound for pound.
I think it’s much harder to predict the 1st Edition box prices because already they have become more or less a speciality item. Your average Joe can’t or wont buy one for what they cost as it is. No doubt the price will go up forever but it’s hard to predict at what rate. The Unlimited/Shadowless boxes however are at a price that a huge amount of people above a certain age and are serious about collecting can manage. The supply is enough to make the price remain pretty consistent in its’ rise and the market for people to buy them gets bigger by the day in my view. To the good majority of collectors, unlimited and shadowless will be hugely desirable ‘2nd bests’ because the 1st Edition stuff is so out of reach, and they wont even feel like 2nd best for most people as I think the majority of people who collected Pokemon cards at the time of release probably never even saw a 1st Edition Base card. Of course I’m just talking about sealed boxes, the prices of things below that (graded holo’s, full sets etc) might not follow the same pattern, but you can tell where I’m investing.
True true. I said that because I have little knowledge of current and past markets for WOTC cards, where I am much more knowledgeable about other markets. I guess I just felt more qualified with the later sets.
5 years:
Pokekids from the 1990’s are going to start entering the 100k+ yearly salary and will want something to collect.
10 years:
Pokekids from the DP era (~2007?) resurgence are going to start getting into the workforce and will experience the same.
I honestly don’t know much about the recent generations popularity with the kids, but, if I had to guess, it doesn’t match the enthusiasm of the above two generations. Maybe if we use video game sales as a figure to measure interest in each generation if you wanted some numbers to back it. I’d say booster boxes psa grads of 1st editions and regular releases from these two eras will be the best investment. You can’t bank on someone making the switch to Japanese cards and “the collect all eras”, but I’d bet the farm that casual collectors will just want sets from their childhood.
EDIT: But I’m putting everything into base set 2 - some day, everyone will appreciate it for the beautiful artwork and fancy font used for the “2” stamp.
I myself was born in the mid 1990s, and I can attest to the fact that while I am a little partial to WOTC and the older sets, I do really like the BW/XY sets as well.
I plan to become a doctor (applying to medical schools this summer), and once I do, I hope to pick up some classic trophy cards or some of the newer ones (this will be in ~10 years time though once I finish residency and such). If I fairly accurately represent this generation, I can see the demand for those trophies increasing fairly substantially. So those are the types of cards I believe will be good investments, as well as the obvious 1st Ed. Base and Shadowless Base cards.
I’ve seen an awful lot of shadowless fakes circulating receently… some of which appear very well made and convincing. I’m not sure why anyone would go to such trouble faking shadowless cards instead of 1st editions, but someone is doing it.
Anyway, I think good investments are:
WotC Sealed boxes and booster packs (there will always be rich people willing to open these despite the cost, so they’re only going to get rarer and rarer).
Base set Charizards (always hugely desirable even in poor condition).
WotC BGS 10s (everyone seems to want PSA graded cards at the moment, however as time passes and the market becomes even more oversaturated with PSA cards, collectors will really start to appreciate BGS 10s for their rarity).
@iluvatar Everyone here has a vested interest in forwarding the Pokemon card collecting community and would never knowingly sell fake cards. Ebay listings are posted all the time in both the eBay garbage and Giant Auction threads, and we rarely ever have disputes between members.
I’ve heard that people have opened “shadowless” packs only to find unlimited cards inside, however I suspect that has more to do with people incorrectly thinking a certain pack type is always guaranteed to have shadowless cards rather than the pack itself being fake.
