What are your thoughts on a card that has a low population and how do you determine value for those cards?
Bulbasaur fire red leaf green #54 reverse.
There is only one 10.
How do you determine the price of that card?
its not sold anywhere else but the card is not so common itself
does the grade 10 even matter? or is the benchmark price a NM ungraded copy?
For niche items like that, I try to analyze a couple of factors, including the relative rarity, quality of the print run, and overall desirability of the card. Because it is reverse it does make it more rare, but the print quality of FRLG was so good that any that do enter circulation directly from sealed product are likely to get 10s. Finally, because it is a gen 1 Pokemon and there are likely more than a few Bulbasaur collectors, there is a small market for the card. I think currently it’s a $25-$35 card, and I never see it going past $50.
I think the low pop is largely due to most collectors/ individuals who grade not thinking there is a big enough market to make it worth their time. They also have to factor in the risk that if a raw card gets a 9, is it worth their time in money? For a card like that, probably not. That’s why the pop is low.
SMPratte has a Para dime that he always uses for questions like this. You should always tackle each individual card with his saying “Older, Rarer, Minter, Better.” Basically what it means is, when you look at a card you should first focus on how old the card is. Value of any type of card will always hold a higher value than many other cards just based on the sole fact that it is an old card. Next is rarity which includes population and how hard it is to pull that specific card. Low population on graded cards always increases the value of a card and how hard it is to pull a card also adds to that value. Next is Mint, this one goes without saying the better a card looks the more valuable it is. That and if it holds a high grade. When you mix Older, Rarer, Minter, Better together you can create a value that the card is most likely worth. An example. Look at the hyper rare Charizard that just came out in Burning Shadows. It’s a brand new card and will easily become overabundant in no time. Due to the fact that this card has just came out though it hold a pop three on PSA 10’s and one of those actually sold for almost $900 dollars. Does that mean that it’s worth that value? Absolutely not, if that were true than it tops a ton of previous Charizard cards that are not in print anymore that have the same grade and also have low pop which makes absolutely no sense. It’s a brand new card that just came out a week ago and I can grantee that pop 3 will reach the 100’s in no time which will decrease that value. Right now it’s a card that is very high in demand with limited supply. Soon it will become overabundant since its still in print. Now that’s not to say it won’t be a valuable card in the long run. As the card gets older and once it’s out of print it will get harder to pull that card out of a burning shadow set and be harder to find on third party sites selling them graded. This has the potential to increase its value over time. Anyway in going off the card you are interested in you got to research. Pay attention to the market. Never jump the gun and just buy it. What you have to understand is that a card can be sold at any value a person wants to sell it at. Whether someone will buy is a different story. When you see that card pop up and if it is at a price point you are willing to pay. then go for it. Prior to that research around and find out what history the card has as far as price value and make a decision if you are looking for graded or ungraded. Ungraded should always be cheaper. If its not then that already is a red flag. To conclude do your research and find the history of what that specific card goes for based on sales history. If you cant find anything ask around for others who have bought one. If you cant find anyone then just be patient and wait till the card you want shows up and only buy it when you see it at a value you are willing to pay.
In most cases the POP means little, for the exclusive stand alone cards, like the trophy etc then yes the pop has an effect on value.However being the first to grade a card…look this is the first ever graded! pop 1! then no…personally the premium doesnt justify it…that is of course just my opinion.There are exceptions where pop has an effect on value but in most cases…that pop will increase…making that first ever graded premium pointless?? unless that is just me ha.There are of course exceptions but imo the premium for these cards in most situation isnt justified…i dont see the point.However…if you have a low pop card…want to sell…and people pay a premium then why the hell not.if buyers want to be sucked into it and pay you more, go for it ha! ^.^
Really depends on a lot of factors, most notably rarity, popularity, years since release, and buyer interest.
Basically, the older, rarer, and more popular a card is, the more a low population will impact its price. Also you need to take into consideration the number of that card that have been graded to begin with. A low 10 percentage can also raise the price. So that Bulbasaur, which is somewhat old but not rare or popular, and most likely has very few copies graded, would not command much of a premium at all over other PSA 10 FRLG reverse commons. However you may find a Bulbasaur collector who is willing to pay a bit more.
Way too many people think low pop cards should be worth more when in reality alot of low pop cards are only low pop because not many people have sent them for grading meaning it’s just not a popular card. I think that it should come into play when you compare the amount of 10s to lower grades, If there are many more cards graded below 10 than what have gotten 10s then at that point a higher price would be justified because the card is clearly hard to grade. In short if a card is hard to grade the price should be higher if it’s a pop 1 where it’s one of the only copies which has been graded it means nothing to the price the card will go for.