Thought Experiment: Pkonno just released billions of cards

I would guess there was one 8x8 sheet printed. Key word GUESS.

No way. Pkonno is smart and 300 copies is really not that many. Even if he continues to release 5 copies of Illustrator a year for 20 years the price isn’t going anywhere. The card already cemented itself at the top of the hobby.

Psa 10 1st ed zard is 100+ copies with a total release of thousands more. 300, even theoretically, is nothing

300 is a very small number, but it’s a much larger number than 39. The card would be viewed as much less exclusive/prestigious if it was known that there were 300 copies in existence.

PSA 10 1st Edition Base Chansey has a pop of 47. If it had a pop of 300, even if 250 of those were owned by a single person, that would make it feel less exclusive and would likely decrease its value as a result (perhaps not substantially, but definitely by some amount).

It’s different. Most of Chansey’s value is in the fact that it’s required to complete a set. I’m not sure what a good comparison would be… Maybe if Gary owned another 200 psa 10 1st ed zard candidates? Since the zard can stand on its own vs Chansey needs the set collectors

Fair enough. The Charizard comparison is closer. If Gary express-graded 200 PSA 10 1st Edition Base zards all in one shot, and kept all of them, that would still impact the value. The mere fact that there are 321 vs. 121 copies in existence would be important to some people.

Yeah you’re right, if someone leaked a pic of pkonnos binder, that would hurt prices! What’s unique is that we’ll never know if the next copy pkonno puts up will be the last. This year he’s sold a ton, but he could have just 3 more or 30 or 300

That was a fun discussion

I feel like people forget that things like sports card RPA’s (rookie patch auto’s) which are /100 of a rookie sell for less than an illustrator that we know of but are very high prices regardless. The market cap will only increase with time and if 300 copies “saturate” the market at the time, eventually they will go off the market to someone and it will be similar vibes to what it is now

Example

Another thing to think about, it’s not just Pkonno selling extra copies, there’s others too. I’d find it hard to believe they don’t have Illustrators of their own considering they’ve sold almost every old back trophy card. There could be more than we could ever imagine but we’ll probably never know.

No need to ponder this thought experiment because it has been done in other hobbies like beanie babies and baseball cards. If everything is easy to get then people end up collecting everything easily and simply get bored of the hobby. Keep in mind, I’m talking about the core collecting community which is the foundation to all hobbies. People like scalpers, investors and so on essentially provide zero value to the community. For any healthy hobby, you need a strong foundation of collectors who simply like collecting whatever item and those collector communities are often driven by the chase.

Which is kind of ironic because one side of the community will get angry whenever a card is worth more than $10 or hard to get and the other side of the community wants the chase that is offered by scarcity. If you ever listen to the timmies that want everything to be abundant, cheap and so on then the entire foundation of the hobby essentially implodes on itself. Even the timmies get bored that they have collected everything and eventually move on.

The beanie baby market is quite interesting to read about. It started with a small community of mostly female collectors that essentially wanted to complete sets of the releases. These women began to learn about “error” beanies that essentially slipped through quality control. These women would go to great lengths to acquire these beanies. This was the early beginnings of the organic collecting community. As the popularity grew, more organic collectors joined in and then eventually the investor/flipping/scalping phase began shortly after. In the later stages of the hobby the vast majority of the hobby consisted entirely of “get rich quick” type investors which dwarfed the organic collector community. At the same time, the company that produced beanie babies simply ramped up production to massive amounts and sold huge amount of these beanies to these investor type people. The investor community did not care about collecting beanies, they simply wanted to flip them for 2-3x what the paid for them in 6 months once they were retired. In the last month of the hobby, the entire hobby imploded on itself because the latest release of retired beanies did not go up. Panic ensued in the investor community and these investors stopped buying and began unloading their investment of beanies. Everyone essentially did this at the same time and caused the prices to collapse to essentially nothing. Supply rocketed up and demand dropped to essentially nothing so price went to zero.

There are many other hobbies that have simply gone through the traditional phases of a hobby where you have the growth of the organic collector community which develops into a relatively healthy market followed by decline of the organic collector community. Stamp collecting comes to mind.

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Looks like the original post to bring this back was an old bump.

Please do not bump threads with a last post of over two months ago unless you are providing new or relevant information.

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