The modern Japanese Pokemon card market was in a speculative bubble

This card is so unbelievably cheap, it’s almost sad.

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tbh i think Raging Surf, Ancient Roar and Future Flash are gonna be great especially by the stuff just previewed.

Also this happens every generation nobody likes the beginning and it eventually grows on them tbh.

He I think the cards just get better in the later sets of an era. I don’t know if they necessarily grow on people. I can guarantee the tera thing is never going to tickle my fancy. In fact it may be the big thing that holds me back from loving the Scarlet and Violet Era.

i mean it took years and years before people thought Tag Team were good same thing will probably apply here down the line.

No idea how that was so slept on besides the fact that the hobby was stagnant.

Good for me so far in as I managed to get the whole set before they really took off in prices, but was still too newb to know to buy more than one.

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I think cause SWSH alt arts was the final nudge it needed to be re-evaluated correctly when a lot of people skipped over it in the first place.

mike-jones

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I actually think it was more that the pandemic + youtube stars brought pokemon back to a lot of people’s minds who hadn’t thought about it in 1-2 decades. SwSh was the current sets at the time and Alt Arts are amazing so naturally those are going to be chases. When people start to fill those in they starting looking backwards. That plus again more youtube hype has brought people’s attention to tag teams. I don’t think collectors who were in the hobby at the time didn’t like them. I just think Pokemon collecting has grown a ton since Sun & Moon. I don’t see Tera cards doing the same thing. Maybe the Tera charizard SAR, but most of them I think will be likely rainbow rares with no one wanting them. Just my opinion.

For me they just became accessible after they all went down 70% in price over the last years. I thought i was priced out of these cards forever but im glad im able to pick these up at current prices before im getting priced out again.

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Totally agree, I’m still collecting the odd card from SWSH… there’s some fantastic art & cards in there. Some of the best looking set cards for sure. S&V has definitely been more hit or miss, but I’m sure some more great sets will eventually come out. It had a lot to live up to after VStar Universe came out.

So far 151 is awesome and for me is the best modern set so far that I actually want to collect to completion. I also hope they eventually do a Gold/Silver set like 151, I think that would be awesome to see as well.

Anyway, I’m still glad to see the interest in a lot of modern cards. I think it’s put a lot of money and attention off the vintage market, which allows for an opportunity to collect them at a good price again. So overall, I’m happy with the state of everything all things considered.

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Just putting out there an update on the Japanese Market:

PSA 10 Average

Market Average

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You can’t compare them 1:1, different eras, print runs, availability, quantities, etc.

Sure they might become appealing in the future but you would require and even bigger demand than today/the past years since the number of singles is so humongous. Some growth might be feasible but to what extend is the big ?.

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any notable insights that we can derive from the graph / band ?

I think its interesting the PSA 10 came down more than the market average which makes sense since those were way overhyped for modern. However I would rather see a median graph than an average. Looking at those numbers too many cards are influenced by the top hype and chase cards. Would be interesting to see what the median card is doing.

I think will all those ups and downs for modern japanese cards, there are some great buying opportunities right now for “boring” japanese promos with right fundamentals!

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To me, it seems like the fear/panic selling is over and we will see a normalization of this market especially in Japan. And that is a good thing to emphasize on, that this is just the Japanese/Mercari Market, not the US market. From running a business selling such items, it seems like things aren’t falling in price anymore and are moving upwards again.

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Kinda off topic, but I agree with you.

1st Ed Base PSA 9 holo prices don’t really make sense right now, considering the box price and pack prices.

Most holos under 1k, complete holo set for 35k.

Great time to collect or speculate.

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They will never match up. Vintage sealed product will always be worth much more than the contents, especially for a set that is as popular as Base 1st Ed.

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Mercari prices have definitely rebounded, so many psa 10 slabs were selling at almost raw + grading prices, many at 50% ebay prices in mid to late august. Picked up a reshiram & zekrom alt art psa 10 at 25k yen. Now i see many sold at 40k to 45k yen range. It felt like panic selling in august post worlds. Buf its probably too early to say things will drift back upwards, it could flatline and continue to drift down slowly. Female trainer prices look like some crypto/nft charts.

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I tend to disagree, prices of cards and boxes work in tandem and there is opportunity to be found. Somethimes boxes are too expensive compared to the cards and somethimes cards are too expensive compared to the boxes.
I can say with certainty when 1st edtion charizard goes up in price the box will follow and vice versa.