It’s just amazing how fast everything moves today.
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I’m really curious to hear if anyone bought in high and what their thoughts are now that the market has changed. Very similar to 20/21 but this felt more niche
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It was more niche and was also much more short-lived. This was really only for a couple of months whereas the 2020/2021 explosion lasted for probably a half of a year, if not more.
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Yeah, it’s wild. It felt like I was checking crypto prices, trying to time exactly when to accept an offer like 3 times a day during a specific week.
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For me, this big move sort of felt irrational. The main reason being is that other market fundamentals just didn’t move the same way or felt like a normal catalyst. With the inflation/interest rate jitters going on in the background, I feel it has a lot of people hitting the brakes on purchases of luxury goods or other more speculative investments compared to 2020/2021 when you had record low interest rates, government handouts, everyone at home with little to do, etc. I was tempted to sell some of my cards into this wave, but I decided to hold on since I was into most of them at such a low price anyway. I had a few cards that sold for 15-20x more than I paid. Now they’re more like 5-10x after this recent dip.
Despite all this though, I still feel Pokemon has done amazingly well compared to a lot of other investments the past couple years. I hope that once this Japanese stuff stabilizes again I can scoop up some deals before the next big move. I really regret not buying other high grade Poncho Pikachus for example, something that was a stretch goal for me over the past couple years and so maybe now I’ll get another chance 
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mfs really spent $1000+ on raw waifu set cards that weren’t even a month old smh
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While everyone had their eyes on Japanese cards, i was seriously looking at 1st edition base psa 9 holos, because i like to buy when nobody is interested.
This bubble came at the exact right moment for me as i sold a lot of cards for insane prices and it feels like i basically robbed people of their 1st edition holos afterwards.
A heavy pack for 10k, while you can buy psa 9 holos for around 1k doesnt make sense to me.
Only time will tell but with the complete lack of interest in 1st edition base atm it feels like prices have or are bottoming right now.
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Shadowless holos are also pretty cheap right now too
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Just like cards get overbought during these bubbles, things also get oversold the other way around. Shadowless and 1st edition base could fall into that category right now.
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I feel like this is true for shadowless. Maybe I just love it so much but it just feels habitually underrated!
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Agree, this is why I finished off my binder last year. Just doesn’t feel right to see how cheap a lot of the holos have been the past while, and even the rest of the cards in the set. They’re iconic and to me always nostalgic/classic. I’m just not convinced there’s a boatload of sealed product left either compared to regular Base Unlimited. In fact I don’t even remember seeing a Shadowless box for sale for a while now.
I still think overall the 1st Ed print is the ‘king’ from collector/investor point of view, but Shadowless still seems like a nice niche among the Base Set release that will maintain or maybe even increase in demand if 1st Ed becomes unaffordable/unobtainable at any point down the road as it definitely feels like the next best thing going.
@bill - I think you’re very right with this assessment. I bought my 1st Ed Base Charizard earlier in the year and I’m yet to see an auction or BIN listing sell for less than I paid since that time. I don’t know if I caught the bottom, but it definitely feels close. Overall, a large amount of vintage WOTC and Japanese seems like a good value at this point.
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Isn’t this a very American-centric viewpoint when it was speculated that the bubble was driven by the Chinese/Japanese and the card stores specifically?
A disproportionate amount of sales during the “bubble” were from Hong Kong & Chinese buyers on our side (not so much Japanese). Some definitively from stores/businesses
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Echoing this as well. The majority of buyers during the bubble were Chinese, then followed by Japanese.
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I agree!
For sure, I was sort of just speaking to the speculation aspect mainly in comparison to the 2020/2021 market run. It just didn’t feel sustainable to me, and so I’m not shocked to see that the prices have come down to where it’s more in line with the overall market across the board. So I think now the price floor has been raised on a lot of Japanese cards compared to before at the very least.
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I agree it felt like a bubble and I also agree I think we have a new floor for a lot of Japanese modern cards. But time will tell. I don’t see Scarlet & Violet doing a good job either at generating as many chase cards as Sword & Shield. So I think a lot of Sword & Shield Alt Arts will stay pretty high as they continue to be people’s chase. Don’t get me wrong I think Scarlet & Violet has turned out some good cards so far. Some of the cards I think are simply fantastic like the Miraidon and Karaidon SAR’s, the Magikarp AR, Miriam SAR, etc. Obviously Pokemon 151 is a total win and almost universally loved with some incredible SAR’s for the original Kanto pokemon. But looking at Ruler of the Black Flames and Raging Surf I just don’t know what Pokemon is thinking with these silly tera pokemon with hats and now the long neck Raikou with a big saucer on his head. I can’t even stand the style of the new Tera ex cards. Not a fan at all. These kinds of poor decisions in my humble opinion, I think will keep people looking backwards for awhile. But this is just one man’s opinion.
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Most likely now everyone already got the base set card of their fave Pokemon by now, since base set cards are very accessible.
I got mine long ago too, preferred JPN version with the golden border:
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The only good thing out of S&V era, so far.
Love the gold Mew ex card lots lots but not the Mew SAR.
Hope they don’t do that to Mew, Umbreon, Espeon! Yeah that Swarovki crystal crown thingy is fugly!
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I do like some of the art from other scarlet sets but most of them are pretty weak compared to sword and shield sets. Except 151 which is a beautiful set. Very few cards in it I don’t like.
Yeah the Tera thing has to go. And now the paradox thing. Ugh no more gimmicks please.
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