I am in the same boat as OP. I have a First Edition Fossil Booster Box I bought over 8 years ago (and had a Skyridge I sold that I’m kicking myself for). It’s just been sitting around, but I have no way to verify if it’s actually a resealed or legit box. Dime sized tear in the packaging. Is it legit? Was I scammed? Was the seller scammed? No one will know until we break the box and ruin the value. This is a case of Schrodinger’s booster box; it is simultaneously fake while being real. The challenge will be finding legit buyers who have the money to gamble on it.
Another aspect not mentioned are scammers actually buying, not selling. You could certainly sell a legit booster box, but the buyer could also claim anything! That it’s not legit, and send you back an opened box with fake, weighed, or just simply opened packs with all of the valuables missing.
I remember 9 years ago I bought an Unseen Forces booster box, ended up being completely fake. I opened a case with eBay, and got my money refunded without any verification, or additional input needed within a few days. In most cases, these companies side with buyers, so you will be out of money AND cards. It’s a really scary situation for both buyers and sellers when these are rising in value so quickly.
Haha, this is true, I think it actually was about $149. I think the seller may not have known as they seemed legit otherwise, but sold other kinds of cards.
However, back then I saw quite a bit of fake Chinese boxes running around on older sets. Even though they were only $150 for those kinds of boxes, I rarely saw them up or if they were, they got snatched up pretty quick. Probably just saw a scarce market they tried to capitalize on. Or there was still stock of them back when it was released.
Some of the responses I got during the first few pages of this thread seem to misunderstand the situation. Many of us are not running around like headless chickens thinking that our boxes are all fake (even though, without any current solution to actual verification, this is a totally valid concern) but that prices are going to tank for everyone but the few who can flex 10.000 positive feedbacks on Ebay or x amount of followers on Youtube.
The Fossil box I used as an example was bought from a former distributor, and it was one of 4 or 5 identical boxes I bought in a single purchase, the other ones were opened by me personally. I’m more than 100% sure the box is real. The problem is that, when/if I decide to sell it when prices reach *insert massive number here*, who’s going to buy it?
Is it going to be impossible? Are we going to get screwed by some return policy? Or are we going to have to sell the box at a discount to someone with the ability to sell it (and that’s never going to happen, I’d rather wipe my ass with the contents of that box than selling at a discount to some whale flipper).
Bought a Base Set Unlimited Box off of PokeRev a couple years ago. I don’t think I’ll sell it for years, but now I’m thinking the only way I’ll be able to is to break the box live and sell the packs (or I guess if someone wants the whole box after they’ve seen that it’s real).
That said, as long as it’s real, then I’m not sure we’ll have that much trouble selling if it’s a real box, but I don’t see there being a future for truly sealed boxes going forward.
Not sure if you guys know who Ruxin 34 is on YouTube but he does yugioh openings and bought a sealed dark duel stories game which has the valuable DDS cards in it and it ended up being a resealed box with none of the promotional cards in it. I hate watching those videos and seeing the look on the peoples faces when they realize they’ve been scammed, makes me sick
you pretty much solve your own problem here. known youtubers will be the big winners in all this. just make a deal to sell them your box as they’ll almost assuredly be breaking it, and then if its fake you’re screwed, but if its real they can probably pay you in a way that may net your more compared to ebay fees. you also then get to avoid rando’s.
also confused on why this is a problem. right now you can go watch videos from poke rev and tcg showing their fake box issues. they’re still rolling in it and havent backed off more investment into the hobby.
The problem is that we could potentially lose out on the sealed box premium, based on the premise that boxes enter a market of pure provenance due to the inexistence of verification. This is based on the premise that boxes will demand a premium in the future because, among other things, the supply of sealed boxes grow smaller and smaller in proportion to packs and singles. Those boxes will then be bought entirely on provenance and, since trust is an essential part of buying something based on provenance, only the whales are going to succeed at selling sealed boxes in the market. TCA and Pokerev are therefore irrelevant, because they are whales.
Whether or not to back off of investing is not so much the focus here. Boxes bought today (through sites with return/refunding policies) may turn out to be brilliant investments even if they are opened immediately to make sure they’re real. Packs are hard to fake and there is a pseudo-verification option available for packs in the form of PSA, unlike boxes. And there is always the option of just ripping and hoping that the EV checks out. As long as prices keep rising, it is going to outweigh the initial investment eventually, if nothing else.
Regarding known Youtubers: I don’t think the big Poketubers are going to be a lucrative option in the slightest. Youtube celebrities on the other hand…maybe.
What’s everyone’s thoughts on finding a very small piece of dust under the seal? Could dust have been collected between the seal and actual box in the factories?
my personal feelings are that the sealed box will still hold a premium, but mostly to the buyer that needs packs to sell. a sealed box that ends up legit will still be incredibly valuable as it makes a lot of layers of resale happen for those sets. if you’re a buyer and can’t afford a box, but can afford a pack you’re in the same boat. who’s to say the pack wasn’t resealed or that techniques aren’t better? this is likely to have an effect and create a weird quagmire of both scarcity and premium on sealed product if it turns out to be legit. just make a deal for the sale, if its legit you make out like a bandit. if its fake, you’re screwed. this is probably just how its going to go. but if individual card prices and graded prices continue to go up, boxes will not be sold on discount out of fear its fake. it’ll be just like the video we saw of the fake 1st ed box, they get their money back and go find another one. the only one that really loses out is the last person in the chain before a fake box is opened.
bottom line is every single box is on a curve to be opened. you dont think gary’s boxes will eventually be opened? maybe its 40 years from now when he’s long gone and they’re sold. every box will eventually disappear, i feel thats inevitable. so if you want to fuel the pack fresh gamble chase, sealed product that ends up legit will still be incredibly valuable.
so the gamble is that you hold your box for as long as you can and it turns out legit and you make a mint selling to someone that is overwhelmingly likely to open it. premium will still exist, but its not like we were all that able to measure it because of the exponential rise in prices.
honestly makes me happy i dont own mint sealed product. maybe those are the biggest losers in this, but still what have they exactly lost? i’ve watched sealed boxes that have some dings and dents go for over 30k.
I don’t believe the premium for case fresh boxes over near mint boxes is anything much at all. At best seems like 5-10% from the sales I’ve seen. If the box is very damaged (huge dents in multiple areas or large tears in the box), then I do see more of a discount on those but it’s still not close to say a PSA 1 slab.
