To the first point: as stated in the OP, I agree. From the right seller with the right box, there could be a massive premium.
To the second point: I agree, I just don’t know if that information is going to come to light any time soon. I love your idea about a grading company having a scientist on staff (or some deal with a lab or whatever) to verify sealed boxes, but what should they be looking for? That is the big question. Yellowing cellophane isn’t good enough, fingerprints isn’t good enough (not that you need a lab to see those), a microsample of the seal taken in for study may be good enough, but I have my doubts about that aswell.
If, at some hypothetical point in the future, Wizards cough up their files about the cellophane, the glue, the seam tooling, the manufacturers, the contractors, the suppliers, the details to look for under a microscope etc etc etc, identification could be a breeze. Problem is, if that information ever becomes public, the re-sealers would know about it aswell.
I don’t know all the methods, but I know PSA does grade individual packs. I would imagine it is much harder to reseal, get the proper weight, and not have visible issues on each pack that was opened. If you watched the unboxing of the 1st Edition fake box, packs were torn, incorrect ones were in the box, and more flaws were present. I am not saying a better counterfeit couldn’t exist, but it seems that it would just be more difficult to fake.
I think it’s less a matter of the information ‘coming to light’ than it is a matter of R&D. If you gave a team of materials scientists 100 authentic, factory-sealed WotC booster boxes, they could easily develop reliable authentication methods.
For example: the chemical composition of this new fake WotC-logo shrinkwrap is almost certainly not identical to original WotC shrinkwrap. Testing whether or not the shrinkwrap is original WotC shrinkwrap may be as easy as performing a reagent test on the shrinkwrap. And if a resealed box happens to be re-using the original WotC shrinkwrap, then it’s going to be even easier to identify that. Resealing requires either or both of sealants and heat. The presence of sealant can easily be detected. And applying heat to plastic breaks chemical bonds. It’s not rocket science.
And this is only as it relates to the shrinkwrap. We haven’t even gotten to the fact that resealers are replacing the contents of the box. This is almost certainly also detectable.
The bottom-line is: anyone who thinks that resealers can reseal boxes in an entirely undetectable way is flat-out wrong.
Haha, true, it isn’t rocket science. Applying a suitable dating technique to a microsample of processed polymeric cellulose is pretty hard though.
For the record, I don’t think resealers have anything to stand up with against a scientific team, I do however believe that, the requirements for such rigorous testing would have to eliminate all aspects a re-sealer could exploit. To avoid an arms race if you will, like what we’ve seen in other, more prestigious forms of collectibles.
Absolutely. Authentication would have to consist of a series of tests that rule out any of the number of ways a box can be resealed. But I don’t believe that the testing would have to be quite a rigorous as you think. As a parellel: authenticating Magic cards consists of applying a series of tests. 99% of fake cards are identified in first couple of tests. The 1% of fake cards that pass those first 2 tests don’t pass the next several tests.
Is it theoretically possible for a fake card to pass all tests? Yes – and counterfeiters have been continuously refining their techniques for decades. But they’ve failed. Up until maybe 2016, counterfeits were constantly improving. But since then, counterfeits have barely improved. They’ve hit a brick wall because it’s impossible to create a fake card that passes all tests. It’s theoretically possible – but in practice, it’s not. The market for MTG has remained pretty much entirely unaffected by counterfeits.
The reality is that Pokemon counterfeiters will never, in practice, be able to reseal a box in an entirely undetectable way. All it will take to conclusively authenticate boxes is a series of targeted, highly refined tests that address the ways in which boxes can and have been resealed. Counterfeiters will improve their methods, of course, but they will never produce an indistinguishable resealed box.
I’m going to throw this out there… the vast majority of wotc boxes still sealed are real. Keep calm and carry on. Or hit me up and I’ll buy your box at a panic discount.
Only way I’d buy an expensive vintage booster box is in person. And with a shotgun aimed at the seller at all times while I open it up. If he/she tried to sell me a fake box, their life is over.
This is a good point. I think this might start to scare many people as the items become more valuable and the people faking these might have more incentive to do so. Some people say it’s harder to fake boxes with the wizard logo on the seal? Is that actually true?
It’s a bit tricky. In general, yes, I would think so. There are so many factors going into applying the logo down to a tee.
But 1st ed base and clear wrap shadowless has something else going for it. The über-tight cellophane requires a bit more precise calibration to replicate properly and, partly because of the tight fit, there are certain signs of wear one can look for on those boxes specifically. There is much less of a “standard” with the WOTC-logoed boxes. Sometimes they’re wrapped tight, sometimes they’re not.
I’ve opened genuine boxes with the original seal before that had dirt under the cellophane.
The collector guru box giveaway was the crease along the left and right edges of the face indicating that they were creased and therefore open at one point. The way around that would be to open the box without creasing the edges and to fill the box with all light 1st ed packs with 12 injected with clear dental composite along the outer spine between the folds to make the mass go past 21 in 12 of the packs. Or light shadowless packs and put a fake 1st edition stamp on the packs with the same process. If the forgers crossed the T and dotted their Is they could have easily faked it. I’m in the medical field and routinely use instruments capable of this. When I get the chance I am going to X ray a WOTC pack to see what appears.
This is for the most part a lot of hype I will say that. You can still tell very much whether a WOTC box is legit or not. It will die down soon. Just be smart and know who you are buying from and how you are buying it. Paying cash or F&F on PP isn’t the smartest idea.
I agree in spirit, but the police need to find the source of these boxes and crack down on them ASAP. It certainly must be a few individuals at most and if the buyers can inform police where they got them from it shouldn’t be too difficult to trace. I hope that in the future we look back at this time as a brief blip that didn’t stick around for long…
This is part of the reason why I started my own YouTube channel. I want credibility so people trust my collection and product in the future. My sealed boxes are old and fresh looking so my hope is they are prior to any kind of major scamming. I can’t guarantee them 100%, but I do hope to guarantee my honesty as a seller and collector.
Worst case scenario is they get opened to be verified someday and that’s not a bad deal either.
