I think you touch on a point that is extremely relevant and often overlooked when assessing market behaviour. In a world filled with ‘Amazon Primers’ impatience rules and impulse buying is king.
Just a few days ago, I bought an item on ebay for £6.99 from a UK seller, even though the exact same product was available from a Chinese seller for £1.99. Because the item arrives at my door within 24 hours if bought from the UK seller and within 20 days if bought from the Chinese seller, I willingly paid a significant premium. In the end, my impatience translated into profit for the UK seller who in a way endured the 20 day wait on my behalf.
This is a phenomenon that has been going on for decades on ebay and across a huge range of products, so in my view Pokemon cards are no different. Sellers who endure that 8-10 month wait for graded cards, profit from buyers who want the item within a few days. It’s not that the buyers are completely ignorant, it’s just that they value their time differently.
Regarding ‘junk slabs’, I do agree with you to a certain extent, but it is important to remember that tiny as it may be, there will always be a percentage of collectors who are after completing a particular set in PSA 10, which means that no matter how small, demand for ‘junk slabs’ will always be there.
A PSA 10 Hidden Fates Metapod for $50 when I can get it for $0.05 raw only looks incredibly expensive if I look at it as just a metapod, but if I look at it as one of the pieces I need in order to complete my PSA 10 Hidden Fates Master Set, those $50 are somewhat negligible.
Youd be surprised by the amount of modern cards that this applies to. Many full arts and exs from BW and XY can be as cheap as $15-$30 raw in NM all over ebay and TCG player. However once slabbed by PSA 9’s and 10’s can be as expensive as $300 and $1000+. I know you primarily focus on ex sets, but a lot of these more modern cards are not only more abundant than the graded ex cards, but also sell for more, despite being much newer. I think the premium comes from new people coming into the hobby and just wanted a graded card. And the backlog at these grading companies almost justifies that premium. Im not saying it makes sense, but the market just values graded over raw.
Oh yeah, I fully understand that the premium exists and why it exists. My argument is that, if one cares about his/her cards not depreciating in value, one shouldn’t pay gigantic premiums for PSA 8s over raw equivalents. Because, for the vast majority of cards (even vintage cards), it’s pretty damn easy to find PSA 8 quality raw cards. Maybe this won’t be the case in 10 years, but it’s certainly the case now.
And for modern cards, paying a significant premium for a PSA 9 or 10 is a poor decision (IMO) except in extreme circumstances. One of those is the PSA 10 Evolutions Charizard, which is exceptionally difficult to grade. And so it makes sense that people are paying a premium over raw to get one. But I’ve heard people talk about how PSA 10 Amazing Rares are undervalued at <$100. These are cards that can be easily acquired for <$15 in mint, pack fresh condition. And they don’t appear to be particularly difficult to grade either. Paying an $85 premium for a PSA 10 version of one is a poor decision with an eye toward future value. It’s not a poor decision if one desperately wants a PSA 10 slab of one and doesn’t mind if it depreciates in value over time. But if you care about your cards holding value, you would be much better off buying a raw copy for $15 and submitting it yourself. Hell, buy 3 raw copies and submit all of them. Even after grading fees, you’ll have spent less than $100 and you’ll more than likely get 2 or 3 PSA 10s out of it, which is better than having just one, I think lol.
Something to consider is that time is money. Just because something is an easy grade doesn’t mean
Raw Mint Grade + Grading Fee = What they should sell for.
It’s especially clear now considering backlogs are getting to be over a year long for bulk. The PSA 8 example you gave is most likely the result of that particular collector being priced out of a PSA 9/10, yet still wanting to collect that particular umbreon card (random scenario that I just made up). Logic doesn’t determine prices. Supply and demand do.
I totally understand why the premium is so large right now. My point is that it’s a poor decision to pay that premium if one cares about that item not depreciating in value. If people just want to own the slab and don’t mind overpaying, then that’s cool. People can spend their money however they want. But it’s a bad decision from a “value” perspective.
1 thing to add, I think you’d be surprised by the lack of knowledge outside of groups like this one that understand or know how to grade cards as opposed to those who are wanting and willing to invest in the cards themselves. It’s super easy to buy a PSA 10 slab. It takes time and resources if you’re “casual” to grade from raw.
I think you’re 100% right. Tons of participants in this market know very little about what they’re buying. I think it’s a factor of the hobby currently being in a period of growth as well as a factor of it being a very young hobby (in terms of the age of its participants). It’s possible that the person buying the Umbreon just wanted to have the slabbed card now. But it’s also possible that he/she didn’t realize that one could just buy a raw copy for $5 – I think this is more likely the case.
P.S. I’m assuming your username is a TMV reference? If so, you have great taste in music. One of my favorite bands.
Can you clarify for a PSA submissions newbie? I was actually thinking of submitting my first order soon (regular service level), and this potential price increase has my thinking about shipping it out this week.
Since I haven’t done this before, I am just not sure if I would pay the new prices if it arrives on March 1st or after, even if I have completed the submission form and shipped this week?
@rsths12 when you form a submission online you “lock in” the pricing theoretically as you select the service level and agree to the pricing up front at this stage. Once you submit online the form you print out says something like “valid for 30 days” or similar.
So essentially if on 3-1-2021 certain tiers cease to exist or procing skyrockets then you’ll be fine as long as you submitted by 11:59 pm on 2-28-2021. This is theoretical. To be safe I would (and will) have a post mark before march 1st personally. Getting this requires you having it in to the post office before their last scans on Saturday the 27th.
Awesome, thanks for the info. I really appreciate it! I had a couple of other questions about this first sub.
I have a shadowless charizard that is likely over the $999 value limit for a regular sub, but I read that you can submit two subs in the same package. So, I could submit it at the $75 tier and only send this one shipment? However, I imagine the charizard needs to be packaged separately in the box so the two subs are separated? This concerns me a bit as I had wanted to put the charizard in the middle of the cards (all in card saver 1’s) to hopefully give it extra protection in shipping. The only way I could think to do this is to under declare its value and just know they will uncharge me later.
Many of these cards are 1st edition and shadowless holos. After many years untouched they started to curl a bit (see picture below). I have read mixed thoughts on whether this affects the grade. I would prefer not to try to fix it for fear of doing other damage to the cards. Is this level of curl “acceptable” or may it affect the grade?
Yes, you can do multiple submissions in one package. Make sure that you print out the correct barcode label that includes both orders.
The Charizard can be safely arranged by itself. For example, the card saver in between two pieces of rigid cardboard, secured by a rubber band, inside your larger package will be more than enough.
No idea why so many people in this thread are quibbling over under $100 collectible sales that are 1) not even their cards, or 2) cards they want to buy?
Why do you care how people spend their money on Pokemon cards? If you don’t want to buy it is fine, but why get mad that other people are buying it?. There are too many ‘junk’ cards in que, then decides to add thousands of junk cards in there because there is ‘desire’. @gottaketchumall , if this were the case, complaining about junk card sales, then becomes a junk card seller. Lol
There are Collectors that just want a Near Mint version of the card (often PSA 6+). If you want to chase unicorn psa 9’s 10’s and black labels, then go for it.
I spent much of last year promoting lower graded cards as it promotes higher prices of higher grades and they are much cheaper to acquire comparatively.
Instead of complaining about cards $500k+, you want to complain about the $15-$25 cards? You guys have too much free time!
People need something to complain about. Now your complaining about the complaining
On topic though, does anyone know what month we are up to in grading? I know psa are all over the place but has anyone recently got their cards back (bulk) and if so what month was it from
Gradedgem UK recently got their may 7th submission back if I remember correctly. My submission from may 31st has not yet been returned and Pichufan has had a bulk sub at psa since may there as well. So we are anywhere in May for bulk subs. Subs are also not fifo so there may still be subs from april there and subs from june may have been returned, but on average I would say anywhere in may.
I’ve just seen the new prices for PSA Japan and there’s very little change. Bulk service has gone from 1000 yen per card to 1100 per card. The bigger change is value categories; bulk is capped at 50,000 yen per card whereas before you could use for up to 100,000 yen cards
I don’t ‘care’ how people spend their money. But as someone who buys based on objective, data-based value assessments, I find it interesting that people regularly pay gigantic premiums for graded cards that can be readily acquired in the same condition raw for a fraction of the price. I understand why people do it — either they don’t care that they could acquire a raw card for cheaper and grade it themselves or they don’t realize that they can. Regardless, I don’t see the issue with discussing it.
I have another grading question. As I begin to enter the realm of buying higher priced raw cards, I would like to understand a bit more what gets docked points in grading and to what degree. I have here my Shining Tyranitar (nod to the beginning of this thread). I think its in pretty solid condition. I would put it at a 9 or 10 (bias for obvious reasons). My question is, there is a print line that would obviously be seen by PSA or whoever. Is this enough to prevent a 10? Thank you for your replys
not many people get that. maybe the first in years of using this pseudonym
