The Giant English Market Thread

[kaiohsan]

@teraz

@kaiohsan

Is anyone waiting on their big purchases until after the pandemic levels off to see if prices come back down a bit? Is that what caused this rise in prices in the first place like the success other I distries have seen?

I wouldn’t hold your breath man. No one can say for sure and the pandemic definitely is not the sole cause of the boom. Factor in the Logan Paul craze that literally just started this month, I would not bet on any sort of dip for a long time.

ok that seems to be what I’ve been getting told in other threads where I never specifically asked the question. I guess I’ll just need to accept this may not be a temp spike

[wisewailmer]

I think it must be the new pokemon go seasons changing event.
Deerling released in pokemon go → Base 1st box approaching 300k
Coincidence… I dont think so

[pokecollectoramy]

@awsmofo

@pokecollectoramy

130point.com/sales/

Thank you!

Was curious on shadowless psa 8 zard. Looks like sold for 5k

Have one at PSA hoping for 8/9. Wow!

This just closed too at $5500! www.ebay.com/itm/284033670421

[politoed666]

@kaiohsan

Is anyone waiting on their big purchases until after the pandemic levels off to see if prices come back down a bit? Is that what caused this rise in prices in the first place like the success other I distries have seen?

If anything, I think it’s reasonable to wait to see if there’s a retrace on lower-end items, but I doubt we’ll see big stuff drop much. The same thing I say whenever similar questions arise (asking or implying that high-end stuff is in a bubble) is that the people that are paying for high-value items right now probably have the capital to hold those items indefinitely. If they aren’t desperate for the money (which they probably aren’t, if they’re dropping $1000+ on cards), what incentive do they have to sell at a loss a year later?

[kaiohsan]

@politoed666

@kaiohsan

Is anyone waiting on their big purchases until after the pandemic levels off to see if prices come back down a bit? Is that what caused this rise in prices in the first place like the success other I distries have seen?

If anything, I think it’s reasonable to wait to see if there’s a retrace on lower-end items, but I doubt we’ll see big stuff drop much. The same thing I say whenever similar questions arise (asking or implying that high-end stuff is in a bubble) is that the people that are paying for high-value items right now probably have the capital to hold those items indefinitely. If they aren’t desperate for the money (which they probably aren’t, if they’re dropping $1000+ on cards), what incentive do they have to sell at a loss a year later?

yeah its a valid point. I’m extremely new to all this and had made the decision to get back into collecting before knowing how the market was. Just a pure coincidence I came back now. Not great timing but maybe alright if the trend continues like this.

[krill]

@kaiohsan

@politoed666

If anything, I think it’s reasonable to wait to see if there’s a retrace on lower-end items, but I doubt we’ll see big stuff drop much. The same thing I say whenever similar questions arise (asking or implying that high-end stuff is in a bubble) is that the people that are paying for high-value items right now probably have the capital to hold those items indefinitely. If they aren’t desperate for the money (which they probably aren’t, if they’re dropping $1000+ on cards), what incentive do they have to sell at a loss a year later?

yeah its a valid point. I’m extremely new to all this and had made the decision to get back into collecting before knowing how the market was. Just a pure coincidence I came back now. Not great timing but maybe alright if the trend continues like this.

My advice is buy your big collection goals first as I only expect card prices to raise. Also quality is key. The more I collected, the more I cared about quality. I was buying creased cards 2 years ago and now I don’t even like holo scratches on my cards. Just make sure you do your research on what youre buying. Also ebay will allow you to return anything youre not happy with incase you get scammed or tricked with the card you buy, just try not to abuse it.

[zorloth]

@politoed666

This is my first attempt at writing a serious market discussion thread here, so bear with me.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a bunch of mainstream celebrities jump on the Pokémon collecting/investing bandwagon. Gary Vee, Logan Paul, Steve Aoki, most recently Logic, and probably several I’m forgetting to name have publicly demonstrated interest in vintage Pokémon cards. Whether or not you think these people are good role models, either for general behavior (Logan Paul) or investment advice (Gary Vee), isn’t relevant. This trend will almost certainly have a long-term impact on (1) the price and availability of certain cards; (2) the perceived viability of Pokémon cards as a legitimate investment vehicle; and (3) overall interest in the hobby.

From what I’ve seen, these big-name players have thus far limited their public purchases, box openings, and Instagram flexing to Base Set, and primarily 1st Edition Base Set at that (though Logic just cracked an unlimited Base box). Logan Paul showed a few PSA Fossil holos too, IIRC. Regardless, it’s clear that this explosion of celebrity interest/investment is centered around the early WOTC sets.

Here’s the question I’m posing for discussion here: Is this going to have a tangible impact on interest in cards beyond Base and, to a lesser degree, Jungle and Fossil? Why or why not?

Although 1st Ed. Base is obviously the pinnacle of set collecting, we know here that it represents the tip of the iceberg (or maybe, like, the top half of the iceberg) in terms of high-end cards. What are the odds we see a mainstream celebrity go after an Illustrator, or a Trophy Kangaskhan, or a University Karp? What are the odds people see Gary Vee or Logan Paul’s content and want to get in on the action but, unable or unwilling to buy high-grade WOTC holos, start showing interest in the E-era or the EX-era? How important is the specific nostalgia factor of Base/Jungle/Fossil in this phenomenon?

I know this is just a conjecture thread, but I figure it could generate some interesting discussion. Lemme know your thoughts.

I have to imagine that there will be some amount of increase in cards outside of Base Set. Right now, the demand profile for Pokemon cards is highly slanted toward Base Set. This is, in part, because of speculator demand. But I think that it’s also because there has been an influx of new collectors with the public attention that Pokemon cards have received recently. It’s only natural that new collectors start with Base Set. Not all, but most.

And I think that this can also be observed in the market movement that has occurred over the past 6.5 months. Base Set has risen in value disproportionately relative to other sets. This started to become the case in late May-June. And it has, and continues to, rise in value disproportionately. My theory is that this is because the demand profile of Pokemon collectors is much different than it was a year ago. Last October, the demand profile of collectors was relatively stable. The hobby was growing, but established/long-term collectors made up a much larger slice of the demand than they do now. The hobby has grown so significantly over the course of the past 6 months, that the demand profile of collectors is currently much more reflective (compared to last October) of what new collectors collect. And new collectors, naturally, start with Base Set.

So it makes a lot of sense to me, given the shifting demand profile of collectors, that Base Set has risen in value disproportionately. But, as time goes on, the demand profile will likely become more similar to what it was a year ago. This is the natural, cyclical nature of hobbies. The last big growth period before COVID was during the Pokemon GO craze. And as that died down, the demand profile of the collectors evolved and began to reflect the collecting desires of more established collectors. I believe (although I could, of course, be wrong) that this will happen again. I think that, over the course of the next couple of years, the same will happen. So, basically, I expect that the demand for e-Series and EX Series sets will steadily increase over the next few years as the current crop of new collectors become more established and get to those sets. But I don’t expect to see sudden influx of demand for those sets in the near future. But my guess is that the demand for late WotC/EX-era will pick up significantly at some point in the future, assuming that some of these new collectors stick with the hobby.

[smpratte]

@krill

@kaiohsan

yeah its a valid point. I’m extremely new to all this and had made the decision to get back into collecting before knowing how the market was. Just a pure coincidence I came back now. Not great timing but maybe alright if the trend continues like this.

My advice is buy your big collection goals first as I only expect card prices to raise.

100% The probability and dollar amount that Blastoise will increase is much greater than an energy card! No one is getting priced out of energy cards.

[somepokemonguy]

@zorloth I understand where you’re coming from but everyone seems to forget that fossil and jungle spiked up massively last year pre covid. I remember I bought tons of fossil and jungle cards like psa 10 1st ed holo Clefable for $300, dragonite for $350, articuno for $300, Gengar for $250 etc. and ended up selling some at the end of last year because I wanted to buy some 1st ed base stuff and the set had been stagnant so I thought it was a good opportunity.

So when you say base is increasing disproportionately you have to acknowledge the fact that jungle, fossil along w the e series and neo sets that increased disproportionately to base before this recent base run. So on one hand it could be new people entering and starting w base and on the other hand it could’ve began running up due to people perceiving it as undervalued from other sets running up so much relative to base. Most likely it’s a combination of both

[zorloth]

@somepokemonguy

@zorloth I understand where you’re coming from but everyone seems to forget that fossil and jungle spiked up massively last year pre covid. I remember I bought tons of fossil and jungle cards like psa 10 1st ed holo Clefable for $300, dragonite for $350, articuno for $300, Gengar for $250 etc. and ended up selling some at the end of last year because I wanted to buy some 1st ed base stuff and the set had been stagnant so I thought it was a good opportunity.

So when you say base is increasing disproportionately you have to acknowledge the fact that jungle, fossil along w the e series and neo sets that increased disproportionately to base before this recent base run. So on one hand it could be new people entering and starting w base and on the other hand it could’ve began running up due to people perceiving it as undervalued from other sets running up so much relative to base. Most likely it’s a combination of both

Yes – I fully realize that. As I stated in my post, Base Set only started to really increase around May/June. But my point is that, as it stands currently, Base Set (all variants) has had the largest percentage increase of any set since pre-COVID. It hasn’t only caught up to the growth other sets experienced, but it has now firmly eclipsed that growth.

[somepokemonguy]

@zorloth

@somepokemonguy

@zorloth I understand where you’re coming from but everyone seems to forget that fossil and jungle spiked up massively last year pre covid. I remember I bought tons of fossil and jungle cards like psa 10 1st ed holo Clefable for $300, dragonite for $350, articuno for $300, Gengar for $250 etc. and ended up selling some at the end of last year because I wanted to buy some 1st ed base stuff and the set had been stagnant so I thought it was a good opportunity.

So when you say base is increasing disproportionately you have to acknowledge the fact that jungle, fossil along w the e series and neo sets that increased disproportionately to base before this recent base run. So on one hand it could be new people entering and starting w base and on the other hand it could’ve began running up due to people perceiving it as undervalued from other sets running up so much relative to base. Most likely it’s a combination of both

Yes – I fully realize that. As I stated in my post, Base Set only started to really increase around May/June. But my point is that, as it stands currently, Base Set (all variants) has had the largest percentage increase of any set since pre-COVID. It hasn’t only caught up to the growth other sets experienced, but it has now firmly eclipsed that growth.

Yes, since covid began base set has increased the most to my knowledge. However, some of the more popular or low pop cards from jungle and fossil have increased maybe 8x or so since 2019 (I’m not as familiar with the price history of neo/e series) whereas I’m not so sure that base set has so idk if it has firmly eclipsed the growth of the other sets. Perhaps if you compared the entire set values over a longer time frame then the growth numbers would give us a clearer story as I’m only speaking from my personal experience/purchases.

At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter anyways but it’s interesting to see the different price movement of sets because there are so many different factors that contribute to it.

[wisewailmer]

no symbol just sold for 2600

[kaiohsan]

Is there even a “market value” on base set right now?? Seems like every auction just drives the price slightly higher than the last. Each sets a new precedent that the next will use as their baseline.

[yz2428]

@somepokemonguy

@zorloth I understand where you’re coming from but everyone seems to forget that fossil and jungle spiked up massively last year pre covid. I remember I bought tons of fossil and jungle cards like psa 10 1st ed holo Clefable for $300, dragonite for $350, articuno for $300, Gengar for $250 etc. and ended up selling some at the end of last year because I wanted to buy some 1st ed base stuff and the set had been stagnant so I thought it was a good opportunity.

So when you say base is increasing disproportionately you have to acknowledge the fact that jungle, fossil along w the e series and neo sets that increased disproportionately to base before this recent base run. So on one hand it could be new people entering and starting w base and on the other hand it could’ve began running up due to people perceiving it as undervalued from other sets running up so much relative to base. Most likely it’s a combination of both

this is very true. not every single set grows at the same time, and this is true when it comes to different grades of a card as well.

[keto]

No rarity boom coming. You heard it here first

[nikhil]

@keto

No rarity boom coming. You heard it here first

The more I learn about the unique niches of some of these cards (no rarity, no number, error cards) they give a very similar vibe to how the sports card market intentionally create scarcity based on parallels/unique colors of the same card with different known amounts produced.

Even though we don’t have a print number on these since pokemon doesn’t release them like sports, I think this might be the shift that truly allows collectors to have a certain “leg up” on each other so you can say that this isn’t JUST the same art work as 1st edition or ect. but I might just be a noob having this realization right now haha.

[nikhil]

@zorloth

@politoed666

This is my first attempt at writing a serious market discussion thread here, so bear with me.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a bunch of mainstream celebrities jump on the Pokémon collecting/investing bandwagon. Gary Vee, Logan Paul, Steve Aoki, most recently Logic, and probably several I’m forgetting to name have publicly demonstrated interest in vintage Pokémon cards. Whether or not you think these people are good role models, either for general behavior (Logan Paul) or investment advice (Gary Vee), isn’t relevant. This trend will almost certainly have a long-term impact on (1) the price and availability of certain cards; (2) the perceived viability of Pokémon cards as a legitimate investment vehicle; and (3) overall interest in the hobby.

From what I’ve seen, these big-name players have thus far limited their public purchases, box openings, and Instagram flexing to Base Set, and primarily 1st Edition Base Set at that (though Logic just cracked an unlimited Base box). Logan Paul showed a few PSA Fossil holos too, IIRC. Regardless, it’s clear that this explosion of celebrity interest/investment is centered around the early WOTC sets.

Here’s the question I’m posing for discussion here: Is this going to have a tangible impact on interest in cards beyond Base and, to a lesser degree, Jungle and Fossil? Why or why not?

Although 1st Ed. Base is obviously the pinnacle of set collecting, we know here that it represents the tip of the iceberg (or maybe, like, the top half of the iceberg) in terms of high-end cards. What are the odds we see a mainstream celebrity go after an Illustrator, or a Trophy Kangaskhan, or a University Karp? What are the odds people see Gary Vee or Logan Paul’s content and want to get in on the action but, unable or unwilling to buy high-grade WOTC holos, start showing interest in the E-era or the EX-era? How important is the specific nostalgia factor of Base/Jungle/Fossil in this phenomenon?

I know this is just a conjecture thread, but I figure it could generate some interesting discussion. Lemme know your thoughts.

I have to imagine that there will be some amount of increase in cards outside of Base Set. Right now, the demand profile for Pokemon cards is highly slanted toward Base Set. This is, in part, because of speculator demand. But I think that it’s also because there has been an influx of new collectors with the public attention that Pokemon cards have received recently. It’s only natural that new collectors start with Base Set. Not all, but most.

And I think that this can also be observed in the market movement that has occurred over the past 6.5 months. Base Set has risen in value disproportionately relative to other sets. This started to become the case in late May-June. And it has, and continues to, rise in value disproportionately. My theory is that this is because the demand profile of Pokemon collectors is much different than it was a year ago. Last October, the demand profile of collectors was relatively stable. The hobby was growing, but established/long-term collectors made up a much larger slice of the demand than they do now. The hobby has grown so significantly over the course of the past 6 months, that the demand profile of collectors is currently much more reflective (compared to last October) of what new collectors collect. And new collectors, naturally, start with Base Set.

So it makes a lot of sense to me, given the shifting demand profile of collectors, that Base Set has risen in value disproportionately. But, as time goes on, the demand profile will likely become more similar to what it was a year ago. This is the natural, cyclical nature of hobbies. The last big growth period before COVID was during the Pokemon GO craze. And as that died down, the demand profile of the collectors evolved and began to reflect the collecting desires of more established collectors. I believe (although I could, of course, be wrong) that this will happen again. I think that, over the course of the next couple of years, the same will happen. So, basically, I expect that the demand for e-Series and EX Series sets will steadily increase over the next few years as the current crop of new collectors become more established and get to those sets. But I don’t expect to see sudden influx of demand for those sets in the near future. But my guess is that the demand for late WotC/EX-era will pick up significantly at some point in the future, assuming that some of these new collectors stick with the hobby.

I think both of you make interesting points. I think to find a strong simile to this it would be that Base set is like a well known restaurant in a decent size town. People don’t always eat there, but everyone in town knows it to be producing good food for a strong variety. So if I was a consumer going to this restaurant often, and they have been meeting the majority of my needs it would take either a cultural reason (which in our modern day world would be some of these people of influence starting to post about other sets) or if the (base set) restaurant starts to not meet my needs I would begin to try a different restaurant.

Thus, the major factor seems to just be time before the interest expands into other sets, and even then it generally wouldn’t be as strong in overall appeal, but back to the analogy, if the one restaurant does well, the other business in the area will start to have more customers. I can kind of speak to part of this personally in that I’ve been researching and learning about pokemon for about 3 months now, and I JUST found a card that I really would like to solely collect. Not try to flip or have a time line for it, but to really just buy and appreciate.

While we can’t decide any percentage of price increases or such, we can still safely assume that if more influencer enter the hobby they won’t just like base, jungle, or fossil, because people just like different things. So if anything, to @kaiohsan, 's points, over the next couple years, we might just be seeing a new floor being established dependent on how popular culture sustains this interest.

[shizzlemetimbers]

@nikhil, No rarity is truly scarce in mint or better, trophy/prize card levels of scarcity. There was no intentional scarcity like sports cards it is just because the print run was very short and who would have thought back in 1996 how important they would become. Also sealed product is virtually non existent, for example Logan Paul can’t go out and offer anyone $500k for guaranteed NR product.

[kaiohsan]

@shizzlemetimbers

@nikhil, No rarity is truly scarce in mint or better, trophy/prize card levels of scarcity. There was no intentional scarcity like sports cards it is just because the print run was very short and who would have thought back in 1996 how important they would become. Also sealed product is virtually non existent, for example Logan Paul can’t go out and offer anyone $500k for guaranteed NR product.

exactly, the base set is always going to be the money set because even people who weren’t around or into Pokémon when that set released and don’t have the nostalgia factor it brings will want it if they start seriously collecting because its the source set and difficult to get. Its the same reason alpha and beta mtg cards are valuable despite tons of repirnts. Like @nikhil said, all this popculture interest will raise the floor on base set until the average person can’t afford it. Then sets like jungle and fossil will likely be the oldest and rarest sets people can get which will drive those prices up faster.

I think Pokémon is unique since they’ve done such a good job marketing it to future generations it’ll stay popular for a long time letting these cards establish their value. But that’s just my personal opinion.

[kaiohsan]

I’m starting to see base set as like mtg alpha and unlimited as maybe mtg beta.

Someone in earlier in the thread mentioned high valued cards will probably hold their value since the people who bought can afford to sit on them. And I think that’s true, however to maintain the crazy prices they bought them for Pokémon probably needs to stay semi popular. I read an article about how the vintage car market is starting to come down now because millennial just aren’t interested in classic cars so not as many people are buying them. So even if semi rare they sit on the market and eventually sell for less which drives price down. As the collectors who own them try and sell them its flooding the market even more further driving prices down.

The reason prices stay high in mtg are the cards are used to play. You can own an extremely collectible card which allows you to use a crappy proxy in your deck… but you do need to own the original to play. So for legacy players some of these cards are must haves. Its the reason for all the highest valued cards in magic. There’s a collectible side but also a requirement to own.

Not sure Pokémon cards have that same thing going for it, so it’ll rely on how popular it can stay as a franchise for future generations to hold value. Otherwise people can keep the prices high but no one will be buying. Just a matter of if it happens in our life times.

Maybe I’m way off base though. At the very least prices are going up now and probably will atheist hold for quite some time. More likely rise.