When any market (stocks, crypto, pokemon cards) is hot, people have a tendency to feel like it will keep going up forever… and vice versa. Usually it’s an in between, with ups and downs, and if it’s a solid investment, growth over some extended period of time.
To make a profit you’re probably looking at a timespan of several years. And in just 2 years we have gone from this: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pxV_fompf0
…to not being able to find a single pack at msrp on any stores’ shelves, and then back to somewhat returning to normal. A lot can change in the time it takes for the value of a box to appreciate to the point where you’re actually profiting on it. Plus I’d guess that now more than any time before people are stockpiling sealed modern Pokemon boxes as investments, and there might be more supply and therefore less price appreciation especially in the next couple years.
Anyone watch Rudy’s new video? I like watching his stuff because it feels just separated enough from the pokemon market to where I dont get the drama bs that i get from poketubers. Today’s video he talked about some of the stuff I’ve been thinking and that basically if you havent been consolidating during this downturn as much as you can you’re gonna miss out
That isn’t what I got out of Rudy’s latest video. He was talking pretty specifically about the opportunities in modern sealed right now – much of the same things we debated over the last couple pages of this thread. He sees value in even the most accessible modern products because he sees hardly any downside risk at current prices, only upside potential. Rudy almost entirely avoids Pokemon singles for reasons he’s discussed in previous videos, and I don’t ever hear him talk about buying high end vintage sealed either (not to say he doesn’t, though).
Yeah I sorta generalized it but you’re right he does deal with mostly modern sealed. However it’s pretty clear the general vibe he has about the pokemon market which I sorta extrapolated
Also from what little I know about Rudy he doesnt like to pump vintage markets. He doesnt sell vintage magic but from watching him for some time I’m sure that’s where a good chunk of his money goes. When I hear him talk like this openly about modern it sorta hints that vintage is happening simultaneously. I’m sure he has bought some vintage pokemon recently but I guess it would be anyone’s guess as to how aggressively he is going. But regardless of that he is showing that he believes in modern pokemon (basically guaranteeing that he believes in vintage pokemon) and is willing to go all in
Ah yeah that makes sense. I agree with the extrapolation. There are definitely some pretty big opportunities available right now, both in modern and vintage. I’m a bit more cautious on the modern side. Especially modern English slabs. I see practically no risks worth taking there until PSA clears their backlog. However, Rudy makes a fair argument for modern sealed, and vintage across the board has a ton of opportunity. I wish I could take more advantage of it and hit a bunch of my collection goals, but the budget can only stretch so far.
Many people are banking on it long term in that people will want the sets and cards down the road or that younger collectors today will become nostalgic for it in 15-20 years. Usually once a product is out of print and supply continually dries up, the sealed boxes usually will increase. This has held true for just about every set it seems, even the ones that were ‘hated’ or not liked by everyone. Take the WOTC-era, Base Set 2 was always highly disliked even on release but now the sealed boxes sell for a lot. No where near other Base Set products, but still a lot. That’s just 1 example of many potential. Of course many variables can determine the outlook on any of this stuff.
For me personally, I’m really not into the sealed boxes thing at least for modern. Unless I see a set that I find a lot of personal collecting value in, it just doesn’t do much for me. I’d sooner just buy an expensive and rare high grade card than to have a pallet of boxes. It really depends on your strategy. I could change my outlook if I actually see a set that I’d like to buy a bunch of boxes of, but most of the time its just spending capital that chips away at my other collecting goals. I think right now though as we’ve basically entered a bear market in modern sealed for a lot of the sets out there, it could definitely be a good time to accumulate more of it if that’s what you’re into from everything I’m seeing and reading the past couple months.
@jabby, the problem with modern is a lot of people caught on that Pokémon can be an investment all at the same time. Not too many people kept sealed product prior to Sun and Moon. Then everyone and their mother started a sealed “collection” of ETBs and booster boxes, which is more of an investment rather than an actual collection.
My prediction is a few years from now when SM and SWSH sealed products start creeping up in value due to being out of print for a few years, product will suddenly become available, which will stagnant growth. There is no doubt there is money to be made by buying sealed modern products right now, but I don’t think it will be a high enough margin to justify tying up capital and the space to sit on it.
I agree @eeveeteam, unless the demand for modern becomes very excessive, it seems less probable that it’ll explode in value like vintage has because so many people now have the same idea of buying up a ton of boxes and sitting on it, more than ever before it seems. With the vintage stuff, I think it’s safe to say that less people were buying up sealed product to sit on and a lot more of it was opened or played with in general. Obviously some did buy and sit on it for years, but nothing like what we are seeing now with modern products I don’t think.
As you mention, the storage is also a bit tough. Unless you have the money and space, it seems like a lot of potential work to me depending on how much you put into it. With a graded card, I can store literally 100s of them if I want to in a relatively small space and still be invested in the market over the long term so it’s my preferred way of investing/collecting Pokemon.
Some other arguments I’ve seen is that people who solely collect modern is that they feel they ‘missed the boat’ on vintage and therefore seem to think the modern stuff will outperform the vintage over time because they’re in at the rock bottom price so to speak. This could be possible, but I think it’s just as speculative if not more speculative than buying vintage considering the fact that the vintage market is so well established and optimized at this point. I feel it’s going to take a lot of time before we can fully evaluate all this modern stuff and for me I just don’t have the foresight on it at this point in time.
One thing you’re missing: a lot of the value in vintage sealed product is because of the rarity of mint cards from those eras. The reality is that mint cards released in 2021 will never be rare – not in 5 years, not in 10 years, and not even in 50 years. There are tens of thousands of adults opening product en-masse, perfectly preserving the contents, and (in many instances) submitting the cards directly to get graded. The pop reports for mint modern are already gargantuan, and that doesn’t take into account the gigantic amount of raw mint supply + the fact that lots of sealed product is intentionally being kept sealed.
Imagine if, in 2003, tens of thousands of adults opened EX Sandstorm boxes, perfectly preserved the contents, and hoarded EX Sandstorm sealed product. EX Sandstorm boxes are only now worth $7k precisely because that alternate timeline of events didn’t happen. If it had, EX Sandstorm boxes and the cards contained within would be damn near worthless in 2021.
@zorloth Pop report isn’t everything but it also doesn’t lie. For example any popular modern cards seem to surpass even the highest pop vintage sets with in a few months to a year of release.
Also mind you most of these people express graded. This also doesn’t factor in ungraded. BGS or CGC submitted slabs not to mention what’s inside those sealed box hoards
So, how do we think updated tax laws for 2022 will impact the seller market? Perhaps, it’s a somewhat obvious conclusion, but just curious what others think.
I’m trying to ignore it myself but @pokemonclassics video really shed some light to exactly how much tax we pay on each sale. It’s looking like 20 plus percent which is pretty insane. Especially when you consider we get a paycheck which is taxed. We buy cards which is taxed again. All food, bills etc are also taxed. Then we’re taxed again on anything we sell. Which made me think what is each dollar worth more like sixty cents after all the layers of tax.
So long story short it makes me second guess continuing buying but I’m going to stay the course like good ole Rudy always says
I don’t see much changing in the way for buyers, but some small sellers will make less. But they were supposed to be paying taxes anyways. Major sellers already pay taxes as they surpassed the old eBay reporting limits.
There will be a big inconvenience in selling off cards to fund other cards assuming the card(s) are worth more than $600 and less than the old reporting limits.
On the other hand those grading and selling psa 5 unlimited caterpies can claim some losses.
I’ve been 1099 my whole life, so itemizing, paying estimated, etc… nothing new to me. I’m curious to see what happens to some of the newer participants in the market, selling graded cards. I’m also wondering, tho, we’ll likely never find out, if they’re more likely to audit the new “Hobbyist” category, rather than someone claiming self-employed… Agreed, that those above board really don’t have anything to worry about.
