Sure man but remember with the comic books, when you are collecting 90s comic books they had already been around for decades and had become an established collectible.
When WOTC was released they had not become an established collectible and therefore a ton of product wasn’t put away in the hope that it would become valuable in the future. A lot of sports cards collected in the junk wax era are also not worth much more today.
What about pre 1970 comic books? or Pre-junk wax era sports cards.
Comics are definitely not dead man, please go and look into some of the most early release comic books such as action comics number 1, if I remember correctly sold for 3.2 million dollars, no pokemon card currently comes close to that figure, and there are multiple comic books that have sold for more then half a million dollars.
How many 6 figure pokemon cards are there?
How many 6 figure comic books are there?
I think you will find there are many many more 6 figure comic books, I haven’t done the research so I can’t confirm that but it’s just a guess frmo what I’ve seen.
Sure, but by multi-generational you are talking about comics remaining popular over many generations. You think kids are as hype in 2020 about comics as kids were in 1990 and 1970? Comics aren’t dead, but they are definitely not as popular as they once were.
Yes they might not be as popular as they once were but the values of some of these collectible vintage comic books have grown exponentially.
What I’m saying is I see the future of the early release pokemon WOTC sets bright.
For me, way too many warning signs of a speculative mania occurring. Way too much dumb money being pumped in from the influencers. Then you have the whole “investment” community that thinks pokemon TCG will never decline in prices and how stuff will 100x in price in 5-10 years. Literally everyone justifying the current prices with irrational logic.
Hi everyone. I’m very new to Pokémon collecting (and collecting in general). I’ve been reading about the junk wax era of sports cards, and I’m having doubts about what is preventing Pokémon to undergo a similar period (since seemingly everyone is holding modern sealed product expecting it to be up in price). I know the best of the best are still optimistic on the future of the hobby, and I want to be as well, I just wonder if there’s a chance only WoTC era cards keep the growth they’ve been having and the rest lose value (or stay stagnant) over time. Thanks a lot and sorry if this is not the right thread!
Long time lurker, 1st time poster:
For clarity, I hold a fairly sizeable position in graded cards at PSA currently as well as holding some binder sets and graded cards. I got back into collecting around 2 years ago but have done a lot of my collecting of raw cards this year, I’ve had some good pick ups - notably about 35 mint expedition, Aquapolis and Skyridge holos (all in the PSA 8-10 range) along with around 300 mint non holos etc for around $600. I’m not an expert collector and have only been around a short time, but I know what I’m doing and have a background in finance and economics.
My impression of the market (based on conventional wisdom) is that the underlying factors which have pushed the market are going to be stripped away at some point in the near future - lockdown, stimulus, hype etc. Coupled with an increase in supply (though this may be small) - would lead me to conclude that the market will see a sizeable correction next year. However, it depends on the ‘stickiness’ of new entrants. Arbitrarily, if the hobby has seen a 30% increase in collectors and demand, will the increase in supply coming from PSA satisfy that additional demand, or will those new entrants have left the market before the supply hits. I base my thoughts on the staying power of new entrants.
Think of the market as a monopolisticly competitive one. There is imperfect information but the barriers to entry and exit are low. I can enter, buy some cheaper modern cards, grade them and leave with a small profit. As others see this option, they too enter the market and do the same, driving down prices. The beauty is, I don’t have large sunk costs - I can leave the market whenever I wish and either accept a loss or make some profit. I think there are going to be some portion of the ‘new demand’ who take this approach - they will have brought in at the lower end more affordable raw cards, base set commons, uncommons and WOTC unlimited holos.
Although we have the Pokémon market as a whole, realistically there are several sub markets within that, PSA 10 WOTC 1st being its own independent market with totally different characteristics to say PSA 9 WOTC unlimited. Think about it, the entry costs into high end PSA WOTC is too high for new demand to speculate on at the right price - it’s too risky and given the existence of imperfect information, it’s likely the majority of the best cards end up in the hands of collectors and those not looking to turn a quick profit. However, entry level cards which have a much bigger supply are going to be sat in this PSA backlog - we need to start differentiating the markets.
What is the point of what I’m saying? Well, I think that PSA 9/10 1st edition WOTC will not drop in price, if it does it won’t be a lot. I think the core base of collectors (outside new entrants) is sufficient in its demand that whatever small amount of graded cards are coming through will not exceed the demand.
I think anything base, jungle, rocket etc unlimited if not PSA 10 will see a fairly significant retrace and I think all modern will. I hold a position in all these categories so this post is not me trying to achieve anything other than getting my ramblings on paper.
Would be great to see what others think, but regardless keep collecting what you love and good luck with your 2021 collecting goals!
Great response.
I think the best way to approach things is knowing that everybody will have different opinions on the market at all times. There will always be people saying it’s going to crash it’s going to boom etc. Everybody will always be saying different things.
Gather all the knowledge, explore other peoples thoughts but make your own independent judgements, I think this is the best way to go. Most of the time people disagree with my me in life lol but hey I haven’t done too bad lol!
Without speculation what I can assure you is nobody can predict the future with 100% certainty and that is the most important thing to remember in my opinion
Exactly - these are just my opinions and could so easily be wrong! Economics and markets are irrational - if they were we’d all be millionaire stock traders.
Collect what you enjoy and be open to others opinions!
Thanks for the response & happy new year!
@multigenerational:
Pokémon already is a multigenerational hobby - People that are in their 60s that were parents to the kids that bought pokemon in 1999 still collect, the kids still collect and their kids start collecting as well - the question is rather if the popularity will remain the same. It´s impossible to make any kind of assumption for the longterm, but in the short-midterm I´m very much confident that this will be the case.
Yes man, sometimes we can put all the logic behind something and it just doesn’t translate. It’s a risk of investing haha that markets are just unpredictable.
Thank you happy new year to you!
You’re making a faulty assumption: that there are two eras of Pokémon cards — WotC and post-WotC. In reality, I would argue that the EX Series (2003-2007) sets and even the DP-P era (2007-2009) sets are more similar to WotC than to modern.
In effect, I’m saying that everything DP-P era and before is pre-junk wax (or maybe even BW-era and before). The core factor that lead to the junk wax-era were investors, which lead to overprinting, which lead to long-term market saturation of mint cards. These weren’t factors back in 2004 or 2008. In fact, the opposite was true — a lack of interest in the Pokémon TCG lead to very few investors and comparatively much lower print runs.
Historically, people start selling off their pop culture-based collectibles pre-retirement age. But this is largely because pop culture-based collectibles are generation-specific. If Pokemon proves to be a multi-generational collectible, then it might not be subject to this. Much too early to tell.
I think it is too early to say it a cross-generational or multigenerational collectible. It has been around for 21 years in the US and was targeted at kids for the most part, Let’s say your target demographic was 7-14 well that would mean that we are now 28-35 and therefore some of us may have kid some of us may not and the chances are if we do have kids at this age they are very young who are not working or earning any money.
Anything low print by definition can’t be part of a junk wax era.
There were 180,000 comics graded in October. That doesn’t sound dead to me tbh. Also if you bought 90s comics then you know exactly why they aren’t worth anything lol
It´s all about wording, but I´d agree, it still has to prove itself as a multigenerational stable asset. The stones for a succesful future have been laid, we will have to see how it plays out.
They definitely aren’t dead if I had to guess the market cap is much larger in comic books then pokemon cards, of course I don’t have figures so I don’t know for sure!
Also yes completely agree with you lol!
Yes let’s see I’m quite bullish but we have to see how the future plays out, anything can happen on a macro or micro level. The world is unpredictable!
I’ve only recently gotten back into collecting from when I was a kid, and while I understand the growth this year is a bit atypical I’m wondering if YoY there’s consistent seasonality with regards to card prices. (e.g - higher prices towards end of year due to Christmas)