How do you guys feel about the Pokemon Koko Japanese Boxes and Kanazawa boxes will perform? I think that they have a ton of potential but it feels really bad buying at 5x retail from 1-2 months ago.
Many of those were probably sent in quite a bit before the cards spiked in value. I doubt that most were submitted with $50+ per card service level.
But, then again, it’s not necessarily that bad of a choice to send in a PSA 9 quality Charmander for $50 when it’s selling for $100 lol. Better than selling the card for $2 raw.
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I was curious, so I checked how much the PSA 8 pops of some of those cards have increased during that same time period:
Charmander Base Unlimited – +39% (+26)
Bulbasaur Base Unlimited – +39% (+13)
Squirtle Base Unlimited – +50% (+11)
Pikachu Base Unlimited – +33% (+17)
Eevee Jungle 1st Ed. – +69% (+22)
Pikachu Jungle 1st Ed. – +87% (+54)
Unsurprisingly, the PSA 8 pops have increased by a much higher percentage than the PSA 10 pops lol. And I have to imagine this discrepancy will only increase as the Logan Paul hype bulk submissions are added.
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Yeah one might have assumed that the PSA 10 pops would have increased by the same percentage as the 8s and 9s. That might have been the case if all of these submissions were pack fresh pulls. There’s a certain chance that a pack fresh card is going to get a 10, and there’s no reason for that to suddenly change. So, the fact that the population of 10s is increasing slower than 8s and 9s tells us that people are sending in cards they wouldn’t have previously considered.
Until recently I think most people would have only sent in a Base Unlimited Charmander if they thought it at least had a chance at getting a 10. Then they’d just settle for a 9. Now the standards have been lowered since prices have skyrocketed. So people are sending in cards that they know won’t get 10s, since 9s are totally fine in today’s market. It’ll definitely be interesting to see how prices settle over the next year.
Totally unrelated to the current conversation, but I was curious to compare the price increases of booster boxes over the past five years. I collected all of this data using PWCC’s market research tool (using prices from the early part of each year). Also just looking at the first set from each respective era:
Base Unlimited:
2015 – ~$750
2017 – ~$1250
2019 – ~$2500
Current – ~$25,000
2015 – now: 33x increase2019 – now: 10x increase
Neo Genesis Unlimited:
2015 – ~$500
2017 – ~$750
2019 – ~$2200
Current – ~$16,000
2015 – now: 32x increase2019 – now: 7x increase
Expedition:
2015 – ~$800
2017 – ~$1900
2019 – ~$4000
Current – ~$29,000
2015 – now: 36x increase
2019 – now: 7x increase
Ruby & Sapphire:
2015 – ~$300
2017 – ~$500
2019 – ~$1200
Current – ~$9000
2015 – now: 30x increase2019 – now: 8x increase
**Diamond & Pearl:**2015 – ~$125
2017 – ~$250
2019 – ~$400
Current – ~$3700
2015 – now: 30x increase
2019 – bow: 9x increase
HGSS:
2015 – ~$100
2017 – ~$200
2019 – ~$400
Current – ~$4000
2015 – now: 40x increase
2019 – now: 10x increase
Honestly, much more consistent than I expected. Another interesting thing is that if we go back to 2010 (which is when HGSS was released), all of these were worth about the same lol.
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Investment FAILURE!!!
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Nani
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First post here, but do people really think there is literally infinity money wrapped into pokemon? people are absolutely hoarding everything regarding pokemon to where the minute something noone wants becomes out of print it shoots up 4-5x in price.
It will be interesting to see how the market plays out, and to see what what happens to the collectors if the card market goes in a bear slump for many years (it will take this to lose the investors.)
I bought a psa 10 blaines charizard 1st edition for like 200$ back in 2014, heard pokemon go came out and checked the price and it was at like 800… Not a huge deal. Figured peak hype. Checked it 3 weeks ago and its 8-10k? Absolutely insane… Investors are basically holding anything they can get there hands on and its impossible to buy sealed products basically because of it.
The pokemon community doesn’t really have much money, not saying broke but there is a reason the cards were like 30-50x less a few years ago. Once the investors get out it may be brutal as people are holding life changing amount of money that not everyone can cash out.
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Agreed.
I dont imagine the card values ever getting below 2019 levels BUT this is on average across the market, many cards COULD have severe retraces.
All you have to do is look at the pop reports to see how many cards are coming in, many popular WOTC PSA 8s and 9s have had 20-30% increases in population over the last 2-3 months and we still havent even seen a fraction of whats gone out through bulk. Im still waiting on May submissions through gradedgem UK.
The cards I am looking at with those drastic increases in pops have already fallen 30-60% in price and if the rate of supply continues they could EASILY go below 2019 levels and remain that way for years. You will see doubling/tripling the population of cards within a year.
However, this is certainly not the case for all cards which is where the collector mentality needs to kick in, I have seen certain other cards increase in PSA pop by fractions (even when the values were high pre May hype therefore supply should of been flushed out anyway) and the prices are still either holding or even trending up.
I have also seen cards who have had fairly decent increases in supply yet the price still hold or again go up, one can assume it was very undervalued in the first place. Many different scenarios playing out.
My gold star kyogre I paid £800 for is now going for £2k, but the dark charizard psa 9 1st edition I paid £75 for hit a peak of £2.5-£2.7k in the hype, its now at £1k and trending lower.
The dark charizard thus gave me a much better return if i was to of sold at the peak, but its now half of what the kyogre is worth.
Yet the dark charizard has mass supply continously coming in, the kyogres supply is barely moving.
Compound this with my own assumption that gold stars are primarily collector orientated, the dark charizard is more susceptible to hype/panic selling/any dip in demand causing large number of supply to re-enter the open market.
In summary - we are in a highly immature market, this means there will be bizzare swings in prices and this will only continue for atleast a year. Ive seen cards I paid a quarter of what I paid for another card in the same time period now be worth double/triple that of the other.
Im keeping cash ready for bargains, I am 99% confident there will be, with any massive boom, there is an overdone mass sell off where values fall below where they should be. Other cards will hold/trend up where the % of those buying the card are primarily collectors and not flippers.
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This why I am buying my collection back. If card prices severely retrace at least I have something pretty to look at other than myself 
Most of the more experienced collectors continue to buy cards raw or had bought them raw. They’ve accumulated capital. My cost basis for for most first edition wizards of the coast holos is around $55. Considering I graded most of them bulk I don’t have too much of a grading cost. If things retraced by half I just simply lose profit. The biggest difference is that they didn’t buy what they like and they also bought in at all time highs. It makes your losses easier to swallow.
It’ll be curious to see if new stimulus money and upcoming sets help rebound the prices.
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Most of the people bought their biggest pieces before the boom, I remember how getting a psa 9 base set zard for 200 bux was a bad deal and they went for 160-170 the most (2017-18). Personally, I don’t buy older stuff right now since the market is not stable, but I do buy some modern top-graded (bgs 10 or black labels) cards since you they are really cheap right now (I’ve got almost full Amazing rare set in bgs 10 for less than a $1k, Zacian is still pop 1 btw), it’s not a big deal so even if those cards won’t go in price at least I will have a beautiful pieces in my collection.
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This is sort of how I feel. Anything old I’m buying is just for collecting purposes - I’m not buying with the anticipation that it will increase in value (in fact if I had to guess I’d say it will decrease over the next 2-3 years). It’s the modern stuff (mostly sealed) I view as having the potential to go up in value. Do I think in 12 years a box of Vivid Voltage is going to be worth what a box of Majestic Dawn is worth now? Almost certainly not. But if in the next 15 years it’s ever worth even a quarter of what a MD box goes for now, I’d be ecstatic.
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Hey, I’m pretty new to the graded Pokemon scene but I recently got my PSA submission back and my Lost Thunder Giratina Staff card is a PSA 10 with a population of 1. We all know “older, minter, rarer, better” but what would you say is a fair price for a card like this? I can’t find any more raw staff cards on eBay but I’d say odds of another PSA 10 are quite low.
Are staff cards desirable? I like Giratina, but is it a popular Pokemon? I’m in no rush to sell but what kind of price range would you say a card like this falls under?
www.psacard.com/pop/tcg-cards/2018/pokemon-sm-black-star-promo/157151
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Put it up in an auction if you’re really trying to find out. I think it being a pop 1 either means its hard to grade, or no one wants it.
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@zorloth , why do you say “when the collector-base from the original 1998 boom hits about 50yr old, the market will decline”? (paraphrased from PWCC thread) I think collectors will keep putting money into the hobby well into retirement and possibly pass on their collections to the next generation.
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Plenty of new investors and collectors are into the WOTC sets. People in retirement phase are even more into non-mobile hobbies.
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Not really worried about the retrace at all with WoTC. Yeah it sucks if you bought a PSA 9 Zard at 6k but that poor decision is on the buyer. Modern is doing extremely well in all aspects, which IMO is all that matters. If modern is doing well then WoTC will do well, if modern isn’t doing well then WoTC will most likely not being doing well either.
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good point on the modern, but I don’t know if I would say WOTC is still retracing any more on the whole.
My guess is that as a collector base gets older and move into retirement, they may decide to sell off their collectibles. However if pokemon is still pumping out modern product and relevant in 20 years then the market may not decline. The real question is will pokemon become a multi-generational collectible? Right now it is more relevant and stronger then ever at 25 years post original release, which is very very good news and has already crossed 2 generations.
Right now my guess is most collectors are late 20s/early 30s of pokemon cards at present. I’m within this age group and most of my friends don’t save anything and don’t have much disposable income, and if they have disposable incomes it is often spent on holidays etc.
The thought of one of my friends spending 10k on a pokemon card, it would just never happen at the present day, I mean they think I’m crazy. Most of my mates don’t have 10k in their bank account.
I think your average person tends to become more financially savvy in their 30s, and by late 30s/early 40s I would imagine most people become very financially established. The age demographic of collectors is still very very young which is why I see such a bright future in pokemon, in ten years I know I’ll have a lot more money.
Can pokemon become a multi-generational collectible like comic books? Perhaps - we will have to see.
This is just my opinion though, interested to hear what others think? Interested to see if this is what Zorloth meant lol!
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I dunno if I’d call Comics a multi-generational collectible. Some of my graded comics are worth exactly the same as they were in the 90’s. I don’t know anyone else in real life I know who collects comics.
Comics are just like collectible books, dead in the 21st century.
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