At this point, the retrace is wide-reaching and clearly affecting most set cards (PSA 8-9) from Base to Gym Challenge. The Neo sets and most PSA 10’s (especially those with low pops) are actually holding steady or increasing in most circumstances. Rarity, scarcity, and condition are the key factors here.
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If collectors have been sitting on bulk WoTC non-holo rares and commons, we will probably have at least a chunk of that population graded in the next 5-6 months (anyone here waiting on bulk WoTC submissions still?)- for the most part, price growth for most of those (non-holo/uncommon WoTC) cards in PSA 10 has been from $30 to $150-$300. I’d guess it could give some measure of interest that accounts for those priced out of WoTC holos while still controlling for condition.
The current economy is also wild - so, a recession should never be off the table too. I understand collectables markets tend to take a hit during that time.
I think we’ve got to wait six months to a year to really state the extent of a correction because there are still plenty of Neo Discovery 48/75’s on the table.
Edit: Added bad joke.
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Next PWCC block is going to be the crash of unlimited WOTC, possibly even 1st edition. With over 5000 cards in December it ain’t looking good
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Cool. We can now buy more of the cards we love.
Have a great weekend.
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Could I have some of that retrace for the Japanese cards I need, please? Shit’s on fire, yo.
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I feel you, I would love Neo/ex retraces but looks like we’re out of luck
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Wow talk about flooding the market. 5000 cards, but how many unique prints and grades will be the question?
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@effectspore, where did you find this figure? It’s no question that we’re expecting more, but I haven’t been able to find anything other than anecdotal “I’m expecting 5-8 months on a few of my bulk submissions.”
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Some ex stuff has retraced (and continues to). But it’s been all over the place. Many of the PSA 9/10 holos and higher pop PSA 9/10 exs have exploded in value. An example is the Unseen Forces gold stars – the PSA 9/10 prices have gotten stupidly high for these. A lot of people somehow aren’t aware of the story behind them (I’ve seen multiple people on Reddit talking about how ‘undervalued’ they are lol). And many of the historically cheaper PSA 10 exs (see Kingdra, HL regis, birds) have basically doubled or tripled in price over the past couple months.
But then there are cards like the PSA 10 Raikou ex I bought a couple days ago. No one was buying it at $700 when the card has half the pop of the recently spiked exs and has seen at least two confirmed sales of $750-$800 going back 5+ months. It makes less than zero sense for that card to be worth the same as a Kingdra ex or a FRLG Zapdos/Moltres/Articuno ex in PSA 10. New market participants seem to just be buying the cheapest PSA 10s with no regard for pop reports or price history.
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Japanese is a different beast altogether. As @smpratte stated more than once in his videos, the price floor for Japanese cards is set in Japan so, once their local sellers wise up to international prices we’re pretty much screwed.
Good examples would be the illustration contest Charizard and the Kanazawa Pikachu promos. Two years ago, you could pick pokemon center promos for prices as low as 300 JPY on release day even if they sold out, now their price starts at 1.5k on release and slowly goes down as interest dies out.
It’s a completely inverse behaviour to what it used to be, so we may never see a retrace in Japanese product unless international buyers completely lose interest in it.
This being said, even at current prices, I think Japanese cards are deeply under rated.
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Anyone have an idea of where PSA is with their bulk submissions process? Sent 100 cards in on 7/22… wondering if they’ll be back as soon as Christmas or whether I’ll be waiting until next summer.
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@treasuretown, I have bulk stuff sent a month prior to you still not in grading stage, and know people who sent a month prior to me still not in grading stage, so I’d say next summer is much more likely than Christmas.
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Yup, June submission here, still research and ID since August.
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Sadly, modern is still hyper inflated. Hopefully the reprints and time will take care of those prices.
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Do you have any data on the pop report trends for gold stars, like how many are added each year? It feels like the rate is low but I don’t have the information.
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Pokemonprice.com has the information, back to October 2017, in their population charts. I linked the one with the charizard gold star: www.pokemonprice.com/CardDetails/461b4169-8f1a-4d59-ba10-65a51a6853ac/charizard-holo-gold-star
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Sick! I didn’t realize there was another tab for pop. Only used pokemon price for pricing! Thank you !
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Wut is that a grand total of one PSA 10 added in all of 2020? I just had one for sale on PWCC and didn’t realize that or would’ve mentioned lol.
*quickly delists other PSA 10 had on eBay*
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@theobest , I think they are referring to the amount of cards approximated for the auction block. This past one we saw about 2k cards going up and then since there is a special event as well as the regular Pokemon night for PWCC people are saying 5000 cards, but effects spore was just mentioning that all of these cards hitting the market with this auction block definitely decreases the scarcity of certain items.
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2 Year Hiatus - What the hell happened?!?
I’m hoping this thread is the right place for this and apologies in advance as I’m sure this question has been asked extensively.
I began collecting a few years ago during my last few years in my doctorate program. Had very little disposable income, but mainly focused on unlimited 9’s to complete my childhood collections.
Now I’m in a lull in residency and a recent car conversation with my wife re-kindled the desire to re-visit my collections now that I have bit more steady income. However, cards I paid $30 for graded or $8-12 raw (I kept a very detailed spreadsheet of card, price, purchase date, etc) as recent as early 2019 are now 3-5x more expensive, which is likely conservative. Mind you these are mostly unlimited as that was all I could afford to collect in any quantify. What happened to the market? Was there some Pokémon game or app that came out that I’m unaware of? Is this ALL in response to COVID? How long is this here to stay? Just looking for some guidance before I jump back into the deep end. It’s hard to pull the trigger on cards at $300 that I distinctly remember and have data to show were $49 not too long ago XD
Any and all info is welcome and appreciated!
Best regards,
Caleb
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