That’s very specific, why can’t I use 9s and 8s to show the new market trend? For example, there has been ONE single PSA 10 1st edition jungle card auctioned off since the PWCC block. At least this is the only Jungle card that has been auctioned off in the past two weeks that had ‘Jungle’ in the title.
It’s hard for me to say ‘Look at this auction that went cheap, this auction that went cheap, this auction that went cheap’ when there is ONE auction.
By the way, this flareon sold On October 27th- 3-4 days after the market started going down. I am sure that this exact Flareon auctioned on October 22 would get 5500$, easy.
Luckily, we were able to find a Ditto sale from the absolute peak of the madness on October 22.
The dude who sold the flareon has 17,000+ feedback btw.
Look how out of control things got on October 22nd. 3 days later, same card sells 25% cheaper. Wait a couple more days? 30%.
Only other fossil auction I found (keep in mind, if it doesn’t have ‘fossil’ in the title, I can’t find it’
If it went for 1075 on October 25th I think one auctioned today would do like 900$ the way things are going.
9s can move down while 10s stay the same
9s can move down while 10s go up
9s can stay the same while 10s go up
9s can stay the same while 10s stay the same
9s can go up while 10s stay the same
9s can go up while 10s go up
Just my opinion and yes I can be wrong… did I miss anything?
Take the T17 1st Edition PSA 10 or Yanma 1st Edition PSA 10 for example, what happened to its value from 2016 to 2019, perhaps someone with more time in the game can share the price points of that card during those years
And… What happened to the PSA 9 from 2016 and 2019???
Amen. These are ultra-short term market trends. Who gives a crap if a card was $200, then went up to $1000 for 2 days, and then went down to $500? The most relevant fact is that it went from $200 → $500. The fact that some idiots bought it for $1000 is irrelevant to the general health of the market lol.
I think for certain sets with low population like jungle, the Neo series, and other wizards of the coast PSA tens we won’t see that much of a retrace. These cards were already highly sought after before. There is never really been enough PSA tens to satisfy collectors that want to have complete sets. This goes for the gold stars, the ex’s and a lot of the wizards of the coast sets. There’s only enough for maybe 10 to 50 complete sets from every set from first edition base to the end of the ex series. To me, that means there doesn’t have to be a lot of buyers who are interested in it to keep the prices high or to raise the prices as people fight for the cards they need to complete their collections.
A lot of people are grading cards to cash in on this fact. Z&g made a video looking at the growth in the last 6 months. There has been less than 5% growth on the PSA 10s. Whereas the majority of the cards are PSA eight and nine. I can definitely see a lot of these cards retracing. just because PSA 8’s and 9’s retrace doesn’t mean that PSA tens will. I can guarantee you that a lot of us ex series collectors will still be willing to pay high prices for the PSA tens. I’m sure the die-hard wizards of the coast fans probably feel the same for the PSA tens.
I just collect the cards but I’d like to think of it as investing…
I would be fine if all my cards went to 0$. I have no debt.
But it’s a little concerning, I click on this thread expecting to be able to read some replys like ‘Here’s why I think the market is going to start going up again: Evidence A, B, C’ to make me feel a little bit better about recent losses in the market.
Instead I log in and I read stuff like ’ Wow, the Market keeps going up every day! Evoultions Boosters 1000$ by Christmas’ and it is SCARY, I start to wonder am In a cult? The market is obviously going down, the sales record is going down, there are cheap auctions left and right, and you’re telling me the prices are going up? What’s your agenda?
I get the impression that people are posting about how the market is going to the moon, meanwhile selling their shit off at the new, discount prices, and it makes me wonder if they’re smarter than me who actually owns the cards and is posting about how they are going down and maybe I should be doing the same as them, talk about how the cards are going up in price but I’ll do you a super solid deal (since I am such a nice guy) and sell you my cards at 5% discount of the October 22nd prices. 5% off! big stonks!
It’s jarring when you check the recent ebay sales and see that stuff is going down and you log into E4 and everyone is trying to tell you that the market is going up.
Prices only go down when too many people like you with a short term flipper mentality buy a card solely to make a few bucks. Then the 2nd it feels like that won’t happen you panic sell & flood the market. Prices of 8s & 9s are going down & it’s nothing new, we’ve seen it before. If people weren’t in such a rush to sell & cash out as quickly as possible prices would probably not go down. This is why you’re not seeing the Base Set 1st Ed 10s fall in price because most of the holders are seasoned collectors that fully understand their potential in the long run. If you’re looking for any PSA 9 1st Edition Holos, now maybe a good time to buy with so many being auctioned atm. I can’t know for sure but I feel like once the panic sellers are sold out it might go back to being a sellers market, at least for 1st Edition can’t say the same for unlimited.
I also find it quite comical that you think the trophy market is going to crash. Most of these cards are in the hands of some of the biggest collectors in the world who currently have no intentions of selling. If you think the market is suddenly going to flood with cards that only have a couple dozen to few hundred copies in the world you’re very out of touch.
If you bought in post logan paul hype yeah it feels bad for now. but if you had anything pre-covid, you’re looking at these retraces and still laughing on the floor.
Who’s saying that? No one on here’s saying that. Well, maybe one or two people – but the vast majority of people on here don’t hold that perspective.
People are telling you that the prices are going up on certain things and going down on certain things. Is Base Unlimited retracing? Absolutely. Is the EX Series or the e-Series retracing? Lol no, hasn’t budged. But of course Base Unlimited was going to retrace. I’ve been saying it since it spiked in the first place and some people on here got super triggered. People said things to the effect of: “popularity > supply.” But they’re wrong and always have been wrong. Having been heavily involved in collectible markets for quite a while at this point, this just isn’t true.
Rarity beats demand every day of the week. Period. Look at foil Japanese Onslaught Polluted Delta if you want a perfect case study in this (if you want me to explain this further, I’d be happy to). Rarity is a constant and demand isn’t. That’s the reality. You don’t even have to buy actually rare cards. Gold stars and Skyridge holos aren’t actually rare. They’re just significantly less common. These are safer buys than Base Unlimited holos. The market for Skyridge holos and gold stars can’t become saturated; there’s not enough of them, even if demand drops by 80%.
Karma, just sharing my little experience being a market observer of pokemon and other financial markets.
When you do a market study, you really have to look at every single set, every grade level, etc to get a more accurate picture. That’s incredible amounts of data, but that is the only correct way to do it. Your insights are very micro in scale, which is why many people have responded, including myself, with a lot of rebuttal. The way you present your evidence and your verbiage seems to suggest your study is too narrow in scope to capture the macro market. It’s like when you study the American economy in 2020, if you just looked at the hospitality or airline industry, you’d think we’re in some post-apocalyptic world, and everyone is probably homeless by now, but when you see the GDP, it’s not as crazy, although we are definitely at below 2019 levels. Basically, I think you need to be careful how you use “evidence” to back your argument.
Since people have been writing super long posts/essays, I’d like to give a tl;dr and make the long story short:
Unlimited has been and will retrace and stabilize. Be it jungle, fossil or base. 1st edition of all 3 are “relatively” good. Kapish?
Have a nice Sunday guys. Cheers!
You literally compare prices between days and hours, this is not crypto. Are you really surprised that some inferior cards show a bit of market weakness after beating record after record for months? Some of these cards have EXTREMELY high populations for the current demand, when they grow exponentially, some people just decide to sell off. they couldn´t care less if a card sells for 1500 or 1000 when they initially bought for 100.
Hey Karma, here’s my attempt at addressing your concerns: I don’t think there has been denial in this thread of retraces. The majority of posts have been acknowledging the retraces of (and here’s the important part) objectively lower tier cards, and a handful of people are adopting the “I told you so” attitude after trying again and again to warn people of the risks of investing in cards which are not rare. The point I disagree with is your association of PSA 8/9 WotC holos with things like psa 10 1st edition base and even trophy cards. Full disclaimer that I own a few trophy cards, but I believe the “market” is not one big monolith. The dynamics of supply and demand for the top 1% of the hobby really isn’t in the same universe.
If you’re looking for anecdotal evidence to support this, let’s take a look at the price movement of something like a PSA 9 base unlimited Charizard vs. the trophy kangaskhan. In October of 2018, the kang was sold in a public ebay auction for $20,100 (this is the post in the Auction Thread mentioning this sale). In October of 2020, two PSA 10s sold for $150,000, which is a 750% increase. During the same 2 year time period, PSA 9 unlimited base Charizards went from $180 to a high of over $7000 (data approximated from Pokemonprice.com). This is more than 3800% growth, which is roughly 5x better ROI than the kang. I’m sure if you looked at other examples you would find the same trends. The flip side is also true, and that is what so many of the veterans here are trying to say - prices for base unlimited Charizards can drop significantly whereas there is close to no chance you will find a seller for a psa 10 trophy kangaskhan asking for less than $150k.
One of the reasons for this is that unlimited zards are common enough for flippers to continuously sell cards to each other, therefore driving up the prices as everybody FOMOs and the next buyer thinks the previous sale is the new floor. The psa 10 kang only has something like 11-12 copies, so something like that can’t practically happen. The opposite is again true, where there are close to 5k copies (and rising) of the 9 that can go onto the market and continually try to undercut each other, whereas there is only 1 psa 10 trophy khan on the market at the moment, and no one else is going to try and undercut each other on it.
I haven’t been an active observer of the pokemon market for very long, but I’d trust the judgment of those who’ve been deeply involved for years versus those who just joined in after hearing about a good cash-in opportunity.
As with anything else that involves knowledge-based decision making, do your due diligence when researching (whether that’s reading forums, watching videos, and/or looking at market prices) and keep the long-term big picture in mind.
The majority of the hype and raises was with base set unlimited. Big names including logan brought in a lot of new people and new people almost always go to what they know first, and most people know base set. Base 1st ed is out of reach for most so most went to unlimited and there was huge demand causing huge spikes. There is also huuuuge supply of base unlim so once demand started to die down, supply eclipses it and prices drop. They are still well above prices before the spike. There may be some spill over or fomo in other sets and some slight retraces but for anything that doesn’t have a huge supply to cause these spikes down after a spike up, they just dont spike down like base unlim.
Your comparison to trophy cards crashing is laughable tbh because it shows your fundamental lack of understanding of why base unlim spiked up and then down. You are comparing the issue of supply and demand coupled with fomo in base unlim to other scenarios that are simply different and don’t compare. You can’t have spikes and then retrace as supply meets demand for examples like 1st ed psa 10s or trophy cards as there literally isn’t the supply to meet the demand in the first place.
Thank you for taking the time to try to educate me. It is probably obvious but I know nothing of trophy cards other than that they are very expensive and very rare.
So maybe trophy cards won’t go down.
But I think the majority of people here are saying ‘The retrace is only base unlimited’ or ‘retrace is only unlimited cards’ and both of those are objectively not correct.
Nice cards are going down in price. That Flareon PSA 10 1st ed Holo that sold ‘cheap’ is a nice card, population report isn’t that bad. Still went down.
The common stuff has tanked in the past 2 weeks, the rare stuff is down, and the trophy kangashans are fine, I guess.
Of course, if you look at this stuff year over year, everything is up.
Then please explain why buylist prices for e-Series and EX Series have increased by 30%+ over the past 2 weeks? Please, do explain how vendors can be significantly increasing their buylist prices at the same time as people are dumping supply onto the market at increasingly lower prices.
If the market was tanking, vendors wouldn’t be increasing their buylist prices. It doesn’t take an economist to realize this.
