Great reasoning, but I disagree on a few major points. Just want to preface this by saying that we should all recognize Scott just sold a Pokemon card at auction for $50k. That’s elevated the discussion about Pokemon’s financial future to a new level.
First, you note that interest in Pokemon will stand the test of time, but interest in PSA cards will not. Why? I think you somewhat contradict yourself by stating that “collectors that played Pokemon when they were young are now of age and have real jobs so they can afford the cards they couldn’t when they were young and naive.” This is obviously a large driving force for the price increases. What’s not to say this will continue as these people make more money throughout their lifetimes? Prices for newer generations will IMO see a spike when the the kids that grew up with that gen become financially able to spend more money on their hobby. Populations will always grow, but so will interest and people willing to spend. PSA has quickly grew to a major influence in the hobby. Right now I think most people view PSA as a money machine, and that’s simply not the truth. Over time this will stabilize. PSA is the grader of the hobby. If the hobby grows, so will the stock of PSA cards within it. I forecast the long-term strength of PSA cards as strong with values going up.
Second, I think ungraded cards are very era-specific. For modern era cards, where TCG playability is king, grading is not highly present. For older cards where 9s and 10s receive marked increases in price, grading is highly present. As is already the case, premiums are paid for mint old-school cards. For newer ones, not so much. I forecast the future of mint ungraded WOTC cards as strongand the future of newer ungraded cards as irrelevant right now.
Third, on your conclusions with sealed product, I think it’s again not correct. We see almost across-the-board increases in sealed product even over a few years. Two years ago I bought sealed tins with four EX Series packs for $25 per. Can’t do that now. People drop 10-12k on a 1ED base set box, what’s to say they won’t do that on 1ED Neo Destiny in 5 years? Sealed product has been one of the most solid long-term investments in the hobby, and there are no major changes in TPCI’s operating process that would signal a change to that. I forecast the future of sealed products as about as strong as possible.
I think we all underestimate the financial power of Pokemon at our peril.