I definitely think there are people holding pallets of product, but i think the average speculator is probably holding a few cases of any given set at most. Most people dont have 20 grand laying around to park in pokemon cards for an undeterminded amount of time id guess.
I agree people are probably opening modern, but i think most people who speculate on modern sealed are probably not the same people who are ripping packs and just collecting. Those groups feel distinct to me.
I disagree that new generations of collectors dont care about old stuff. There are people who do and dont, but this statement is too general imo.
i think part of hype is accessibility. Its difficult to sustain consistent hype for very rare/ scarce cards because the vast majority of collectors cant and likely never will be able to acquire those items. Modern is such a low barrier to entry and then couple that with a supply choke and its like the perfect storm for hype lol.
I cant provide real definitve proof and besides what ive seen from people and companies this is my opinion. The modern specultors i know see a 35% increase in price and literally lock that in immediately. So rn when stuff is needed and easy to move id imagine they would lock it in. I dont know tons of modern speculators but i somewhat understand the type of person.
The modern collector from my experiance actively avoids vintage and price points cant really be used as a scapegoat for vintage anymore when your spending 2k for a modern umbreon you could easily get almost any gold star or base 1st ed holo in a 9 for that. Its not a huge problem because the market is big but to dismiss modern is just a bad idea imo
Its also purposely vauge and exaggerated, but it is all based in research and talking to many types of people. Ive basically come to the conclusion that avoiding modern is not smart and while the price points may not make tons of sense, they are unbelieveably demanded products
It all boils down to how much time are you keeping this stuff or if you are just for flipping.
The major thing here is, yeah alt arts are good looking but will the next expansion have even better? The answer is most likely yes, vivid voltage was deemed as peak pokemon when it released, look at where it is right now.
Look at hidden fates, when it released it was deemed as peak pokemon, right now is doing ok but there are sets miles better than that. ES is doing great but what if for S&V they release an even better eeveelutions set?
Just look at base S&V, its looking as the best “base set expansion” since B&W. There is always going to be a new shiny thing so putting “all modern” into the same bag is kinda dangerous.
I should maybe clarify that i wouldnt consider myself a modern speculator. More so an “ex modern hater” who has just come to appreciate certain aspects of it. I still put very little money into modern and i am beyond selective with which modern things i end up buying to hold onto. My philosophy in modern is wildly different than what i do for vintage
Oh absolutely, I would also be locking that in if I was holding modern lol. I also wasn’t trying to disprove what you were saying, I don’t have definitive proof for my ideas either, just sharing my thoughts
Idk, I guess I separate modern speculators from collectors in my head because I know a few modern collectors who do not give a damn about what price anything is, they just like grabbing some packs, and filling out their binders. I also don’t know anyone who would spend 2k on Moonbreon (I’m also pretty sure the English card is closer to ~$400). Maybe it’s not right to separate the two, I’m not sure. Also, it wasn’t my intention to dismiss modern— I personally enjoy collecting modern a lot. It has become exponentially less enjoyable for me as supply issues continue, though.
I agree on the possibility of people hoarding or sitting on product. I’ve seen too many posts on other sites where people show closets full of product or whatever. I definitely think though a lot of it was from the rampant speculation from 2020/2021 era, and I feel at this point, a lot of that speculation has probably come to an end for the majority of folks coming into this now on some of these more recent sets.
I think it’s safe to say it’s unclear at the very least, but my guess is the overall scale of the interest/excitement has largely died down for a variety of reasons OR there seriously is that much demand and people are truly just hoarding and not re-selling anytime soon. I feel like the truth is somewhere in the middle at this point.
Overall, modern does its job very well. A lot of people enjoy opening it, and others like to just sit on it for a longer period. Regardless of what people think of modern, I’m fine with seeing it succeed, as I think it’s healthy for Pokémon as a whole. I love my vintage cards, but there’s no denying that Pokémon is simply doing a great job with modern these days (especially compared to the competition).
I think the gap between vintage and modern could close over time, and we could see different things drive each. When you look at the bigger picture, they’ve both had different cycles in terms of investment return and at times vintage has crushed modern and vice-versa. So personally, I collect what I enjoy from each era and just see where it goes. I don’t think anyone knows for sure, and to me they both have pros and cons.
No matter what people say about print runs, there simply are not pallets of sealed stuff in everyones closet or we would not see these shortages
Is it possible that the shortages are because everyone is keeping pallets of sealed stuff in their closets? I think it’s very possible that shortages are a symptom of widespread speculation, rather than an indication that there’s a lack of speculators.
Modern collectors open modern, sealed modern isnt as popular as everyone thinks
Modern collectors open modern, but modern speculators sit on sealed modern. While I’m sure lots of modern is being opened, a lot of it is also being kept sealed by speculators.
New generations of collectors dont care about old stuff
I disagree. As long as the characters remain culturally relevant/popular, the old stuff will have demand. Look at the value of gold/silver era comic books – they’re still desirable because the characters they feature remain popular with younger audiences. Older Pokemon cards will have significant value for as long as Pokemon remains culturally relevant.
Biggest point is, knowing modern sealed speculators (or the ones i know) they cant hold stuff sealed long and a 35% increase in a dry market would drive them out to sell. And since that hasnt been whats happend it makes me think less is being held by these people than imagined. Still lots out there but if you think the types of people who stonk on modern would pass up free eaay money then you dont know these people. Moat dont really know what theyre doing and are still living in the 2020 days
The people who publicly share their hordes of sealed modern product are the exact sort of people who can’t afford to sit on them. The people with really big positions in modern sealed aren’t publicizing what they have.
Agreed with @zorloth. Part of the problem here is what was happening back in 2020/2021.
Every time I go to trade shows, I see sellers with hundreds of sleeved boosters. Now, you can get 144 sleeved boosters per case from a distributor if you run an LGS OR you buy them out from any big box store that you visit (Target, Walmart, Publix, etc.). Most of the sellers that I see at trade nights are not from an LGS, they are driving around and buying out the sleeved boosters as quickly as humanly possible to keep an active inventory at these events.
Edit: BUT, the main point of this thread was actually on booster boxes. Booster boxes are not sold in retail (unless you’re an LGS), so it is likely a problem with supply from TPCi.
I struggle to think that sealed enjoyers have built up positions large enough to make a dent in the overall supply to the general market. I think the lack of boxes we see is largely the result of Pokemon not printing enough to meet demand. Mason’s video has proven this where multiple distributors who normally would get thousands of boxes and other products have nothing to offer. Anyone with access to a distributor may be able to provide more information on the actual number of boxes that normally are offered to stores, but the point still stands imo.
Im just saying writing off all modern sealed is a bad idea. I did it for the longest time and with very breif exposure now its pretty apparent its not all as people think. If modern was stored to any degree like what people like to say then now would be an excellent time to dump and just buy vintage if your a big wig and if your a small fry you probably dumped the minute you could make 15$
A modern droubt to the degree we see shouldnt be possible if it was everywhere. Even if you are super rich, it would be smart to offload and just buy more stable things. The only people who wouldnt are people who are rich and also believe heavily in modern which i imagine is a low amount of people
If modern was stored to any degree like what people like to say then now would be an excellent time to dump and just buy vintage if your a big wig and if your a small fry you probably dumped the minute you could make 15$
Oh trust me i dont disagree, i dont hold any sort of positions in anything made past 2006. And also for full disclosure i dont buy modern unless it is literally 60-70% market or its evolving skies (but i just like that set)
And at some point you need inventory that will move in a few days opposed to a few months and modern works for that
Not a direct answer to all points talking to the booster box famine, but as a boomer member of this forum with to two teenagers that grew up during the Sun & Moon Era, and are still avid collectors… I can honestly say that the Sword & Shield era REALLY pulled them in. They both are dreaming of the day they have enough disposable income to work on their Alt Art binders… They enjoy WOTC, but don’t share the same nostalgia… so in 10-15 years when they start having more disposable income, I see them coming back to Sword & Shield, finishing binders, opening some sealed they saved from summer money (far from pallets), and re-living the fun of opening this era. They may dabble in WOTC - but to them, this current era is Pokemon.
That said, while the current modern era is printed to the ground, the collector base is much wider to support the demand, hence some of the famine. So in 10-15 years when the current 8-16 year olds have more disposable income, will they be searching for a Fossil booster box, or an Evolving Skies Booster Box?
My vote is… they will be searching for Evolving Skies and working on their alt art binders… before considering going back to WOTC
I agree, people just got used to all these SwSh booster boxes being available for close to distro prices while LGS were dumping inventory or going out of business. Basically every recent BB outside of evolving skies is available at MSRP, and given that MSRP is less than two months from going up they probably don’t want people feeling like $100 modern BBs are here to stay.
