In December I could purchase a box for $99 from LGS. Went up to $110 in the new year, now it quickly wound up that the cheapest I can find is $135 in store. I’m not sure if online sales match this, just what I’m seeing in my local stores.
For a set that came out a few months ago, this seems very quick.
I haven’t been in the hobby for a minute, but I don’t recall jumps like that from retailers until the distributors were dishing out last call notices. Is this the norm now?
I mean the “supply/demand” sentiment could answer and close down the entire market section. But there’s no fun in that.
Tempest was released less than 3 months ago in November and selling at $90 during its release and max popularity, now it’s up ~40% while still the newest set available. That certainly wasn’t normal a few years ago, I think it deserves a discussion.
I’m still curious on the timeline for retailer price increases in the current market. In my experience they increase simultaneously because their costs went up from distributors. I can’t imagine it’s out of print or approaching last call within less than 3 months of release. Other new sets are still selling at $125 a box.
It’ll get a reprint and the price will go back down. Demand has been high because of the Lugia Alt Art, so boxes have flown off of the shelves. There was also speculation that Scarlet/Violet would not include alt arts (which was later confirmed to be false). This may have caused modern speculators to buy up any SW/SH product at current prices, which is what is shown in the thread that @eeveeteam noted.
1. not enough supply to meet demand. This is the main reason why and the only tried and true way to bring these prices down.
Uncertainty of future reprints. Nothing has been said yet to clarify if reprints are happening. Rudy mentioned a reprint of Silver Tempest in a couple months, but that’s the only thing I’ve heard. I seriously doubt SWSH boxes are out of print, but the market isn’t just me.
Scarlet Violet price changes. People are unsure if price changes will affect SWSH sets, so its better to buy them when they are cheaper (under $143) than if Pokémon were to start charging ~$161 msrp for reprinted boxes and new sets. The higher msrp would see generally higher prices across tcg products.
Distribution uncertainty. Distribution seems to be out of booster boxes and doesn’t know when or if new reprints are coming for boxes. Akin to the reason above, its unclear if reprint products are going to be priced along with Scarlet Violet products or if the old prices are going to remain.
Holiday demand bought out most of what was left.
For the “why now?” part, theres no real way to predict when something like this would happen. Prices seem to have all gone up for every set this year. I don’t think its as concentrated in a particular month as people like to think, rather the whole modern market for SWSH sealed/alt arts has just done well this year.
I can’t see it NOT getting a reprint. The lugia is apparently playable too, because while the alt art in both Eng and JP is high, the full art is low in JP, while the English is also high. SO, (unless things have changed since I looked last) collectors of the english players must be going after the affordable full art copy (Which is also a banger). It’ll get a reprint.
OR maybe I’m misjudging the tenacity of JP collectors and/or players and it’s all just collectors buying everything, and it’ll be worth less in 10 years.