This is a terrible idea unless this is someone you’d just take $10,000 cash from or give $50,000 cash to for no reason at all. Because that is all that is going to be happening depending on the grade and the finalized sale price. Maybe rich people do that? I don’t know.
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I don’t see your number? Just your own equally irrelevant 2c
What Gary actually asked for is what $ is fair in this situation. As some people pointed out, the situation is inherently going to be unfair to at least one party so from a certain perspective, the question is not really answerable. Many people offered ways to make it potentially more fair. I don’t see the problem with this personally. Don’t post on a discussion forum if you don’t want a discussion.
The “fairest” way to settle this is the same way a casino would. Just calculate the expected value (and if you were a casino, charge more than that).
q w a chansey wrote an equivalent formula but typically it would be formed like this:
That is, the expected value is the sum of each possible outcome times the probability of that outcome:
(price of 8) * p(8) + (price of 9) * p(9) + (price of 10) * p(10)
So just as qwachansey said, the unknowns are the probability of getting each grade given Gary’s pregrading. Interestingly, Gary probably has enough grading experience that these probabilities can be very accurately estimated. I would agree with q w a chansey that this is the way to go to make it as fair as possible, given the dollar value it makes sense to try to put the effort in to formalize the problem. It’s hard to agree to one single number, but it is probably much easier to agree to these 6 numbers independently.
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If there’s one thing I’ve learned on this forum, it’s that you can always count on PFM for a rational answer, backed up by maths 
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@pkmnflyingmaster that makes a lot of sense, and you’re right. I was directing my comment towards the sentiments that this type of deal shouldn’t be done.
With regards to my own number, I actually thought about it for a bit but couldn’t come up with something that would satisfy myself since, as you pointed out, there isn’t really a “fair” answer to all parties in all circumstances. For what it’s worth, this is not something I would ever do myself and my opinions align with a lot of people who posted on this thread. But your response led me to think about your video about resolving power and how someone could pay $80k for a 10 which could have gotten a 9 on a bad day at PSA, therefore reducing its value to $20k. If this buyer is trusting Gary to have greater resolving power than PSA, then paying $30k for a “strong” 9 which is in between the spectrum between 9-10 (vs. potentially in the spectrum between 8.5-9 for some weaker 9s) could be considered “fair”. It’s the same idea behind people willing to pay a premium for a BGS 9.5, which someone else on this thread also pointed out. As you pointed out in your video, condition lies on a much broader spectrum than what the resolving power of PSA’s grading scale can encompass. This is why you always hear “buy the card, not the grade” as advice for collectors (but not necessarily investors) on this forum.
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Yes what you say here is another component that could be considered in this situation. Many people would consider Gary’s opinion as highly or even higher than PSA’s. I’d rather have a 9 that has been independently validated as a “true 9” by multiple knowledgable parties. There potentially could be a premium on that information rather than taking a gamble and buying a random one over Ebay
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Just thinking about the time I sold my 1st Ed Zard psa 9 for $7k a few months before the price boom…annnnnd it sucks to be me 
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…In 25 days it up 50% and maybe more by the end of the month. 
Yes, I just completed the deal yesterday for 42.5 mainly because a PSA 10 may be worth 150k today.
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Just curious, what step is your submission currently in?