I’m not made for speculative buying/selling like that. I have no clue what the best course of action is other than having the seller wait for the grade.
I’d take this gamble. XD
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the issue here is information asymmetry. the higher the premium you ask for, the more you’re implying that the card has higher odds of a 10, if he doesn’t have meaningful information on the card besides your opinion. You could offer a 20% premium and it could be too much or offer a 100% premium and it could be too little.
i second most of the forum members here that it’s better to sell after the results are out to minimize unhappiness.
but it’s vegas and this is essentially a business negotiation, i assume both parties are professionals and no hard feelings regardless of outcome. I would fix the information asymmetry and show him detailed pictures of the raw card and ask for a healthy premium - if it’s a strong 9 then it is also bgs 9.5 potentially no? why price it at a psa 9+? price it as a ~bgs 9.5. Ask for 30k-40k as an opener and negotiate from there.
no harm having some fun with pokemon, especially when the odds aren’t that bad for both sides and the sum involved is a tiny fraction of your networth. i flipped a coin once with a friend for 2k, bet 1k on a game of rock paper scissors, and it was all good fun.
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@sgbased, I like the analysis of using the ratios of 8/9/10 on PSA and applying those weights. Then maybe add a premium
I wouldn’t do something like this. A 9 might be worth more than the premium over a 9 he pays now by the time it gets back from PSA.
I also think that the deal is just to complicated. Even if you put a contract in place, there is too much risk of things going sour.
I would also add that for one party to profit off of this, the other has to take a loss. Like someone previously said, one of you will end up unhappy.
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in theory every PSA 9 card could get a PSA 10, who hasn’t heard the phrase “I have seen 10’s that look worse than this 9”, so splitting the value on the probability makes no sense. I agree with the other guy who would pass on the deal, too much of a hassle.
Jesus, a whole new form of gambling. Theoretically, a strong 9 could regrade as a 10 so the card should be worth about a strong psa 9. Although I wouldn’t want to to sell under these circumstances. The buyer is betting on the chance of it getting a 10 and burning you. I’d just wait to see if it’s a 9 or 10, then you know it’s value. You’ll either get burned or a disappointed buyer, lose lose.
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I was born at night but not last night, so don’t worry about me selling it for under 9 value.
The buyer is in it for the fun of it, not because he thinks it’ll be a 10;)
Maybe I’ll do it and document it on here and Instagram?
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Trust me, none of that’s a concern.
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Here’s the sub form so you all know it’s already in.
My pre-grades are 4 10s, 9 9s, and 2 8s.
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I didn’t read everyones opinions but I will just say someone is going to lose in this deal, and that’s not good. He’s either gonna pay a huge markup on a 9 or you’re going to get slain if it gets a 10. Just wait for the grade and sell based on the grade.
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I don’t like the idea of introducing more serious gambling into pokemon, has parallels to raffles
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Just felt like pointing out that OP asked for opinions on what price to ask for, not for opinions on whether two adults should do a deal which they both seem comfortable with. But I guess that’s what happens when you post details about a deal on a public forum.
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Buyer could pay PSA 9 price today upfront. If it gets a 8 refund the price difference. If it gets a 10 charge the price difference.
I havnt checked availability of this card currently but the buyer could technically pick one up off someone else now. Assuming the cash is on hand so the fact the price might move shouldn’t be a huge factor if he or she is paying upfront.
Or another simple version is wait till it comes back and sell it then for going rate.
Maybe the buyer is ok with a gamble but it could make for a horrible buying experience. Could also make for a bad selling experience for you.
I’m more concerned for the buyer tho but again anyone spending this much on one card should be pretty financially stable.
Regardless good luck Gary and try to put yourself more in the buyers shoes
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Good point. Only a couple actually addressed the question. I do realize though, it’s not an easy thing to guesstimate at.
It’s because you know presumably better than this guy what the card will grade. To me if I didn’t know your background, this post just reads as “How can I get an extra $10k out of a 9?” since the House Always Wins.
Obviously this was not your intention but you still need to make a profit here and commenters including myself are likely misunderstanding. So perhaps:
If you think it has a 10% at a 10, charge 9 plus 20% of the difference between 9 and 10. If you think it has a 4% chance at an 8, also subtract 2% of the value difference between 8 and 9.
Example –
If you take 8 is 14k, 9 is 22k, 10 is 85k:
[22k + ((85k - 22k) x 0.2) - ((22k - 14k) x 0.02)] = $22k + $12.6k - $160 = $34,440.
That way you get an edge / better chance of making profit, while your friend gets to gamble. If you want it to be a fairer bet, change up the % in the formula to match the exact guess in your head.
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Gary:
I like the thinking outside the box…
I would do
Something like this as a buyer!!
How long is the wait? What kind of a sub?
If we say a 9 is a 20k Card and you sold your last 10 for 85k to Gary Vee ( hypothetically of course… 
). I would say it would be fair to charge 20k plus a “gamble percentage” for the 10. Buyer is basically buying an option-
It’s a cool idea- I think I would give you 30k. As long as we had an agreement that of it graded less than a 9… you gave my money back. I would need some downside protection as well.
My man! Your collection is amazing and I wish you the best! And hit me up if you want to sell a 10… or do another deal like this!!
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I’ve sold raw cards that could be a 10 for PSA 9 price plus 50%. It’s already at PSA, so that’s even less work for him. If he is okay with $30k, and you’re happy with it, that’s what I’d go with personally. Maybe say you’ll do it for $30k, and you’ll throw in an unlimited base set 9 if the 1st edition ends up pulling the 9. Nice little deal smoother that I’m sure he’d appreciate.
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Do the deal at $30k-35k with $10k-15k refunded for an 8.
PSA 10 = $30k-$35K net cost for a $100k. Win-Win
PSA 9 = $30k-$35k net cost with a new high for a PSA 9 traded.
PSA 8 = 20k net cost with a new high for a PSA 8 traded.
Any of the above scenarios will be the talk of the Pokemon world for quite some time.
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I’m with Z 
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