First of all, if anyone remembers I provided the information to find Gene.
Not much difference in my earlier and later descriptions. In my scenario #1 Shadowless would likely represent only ~ 10% to 20% of 1st edition. Print overruns might be as little as 10% if success was uncertain, or as much as 20% under more favorable conditions. WOTC has always been cheap and unwilling to trash any more product than was absolutely necessary (if you don’t believe me, investigate the true story of MTG alt. 4th), so it wouldn’t have been more than 20%.
In my scenario #2 WOTC realized they had a huge success. They already had a relatively large 1st edition run (orders of magnitude larger than Alpha/Beta in MTG) and were simply trying to fill a gap until the previously scheduled Unlimited print run could be manufactured and distributed. Given that they were already preparing a massive distribution of Unlimited base, they would have only reprinted a minimum amount to cover the gap. As a rush job they would have been limited in packaging supplies. As I remember it, the “gap” of no product amounted to about a 4 week period between when 1st edition sold out and Unlimited became widely available. Shadowless filled a tiny portion of that gap. Given that 1st edition was well planned, in this scenario sneaking in another print run might allow Shadowless to be up to half the size of the original 1st Edition run.
I agree with Gene that many of the shadowless cards were played, just as 1st edition cards were initially played, so finding them in the highest conditions is tough. But even the played cards, especially the Charizards, would be still around. I know a lot of kids who stopped playing and stuffed all their cards away wherever their old stuff went. With the renewed popularity since Pokemon Go all sorts of old collections are being brought back into circulation. If there were originally a ton of shadowless there should now again be a ton of shadowless.
I disagree with Gene that many shadowless cards were selectively destroyed. Why would people destroy them? Charizard is and always was the ultimate card in the game. The Unlimited cards (and the Shadowless cards as well) jumped to $30, $40 even $50 in 2000. The 1st Edition Charizards quickly jumped well above $100. This was huge money in a game dominated by pre-teens. Of course all WOTC Pokemon prices dropped after ~ 2002 as popularity waned for a time.
I know Gene struggled for many years to differentiate “Shadowless” sets from Unlimited sets. For perspective, between 2003 and 2008, when I would check in on Ebay auctions, Unlimited sets would often fail to reach $100. 1st Edition sets in nice shape might reach $300 to $400. Shadowless sets would only get ~ $120 to $130.
Because of the original Pokemon cards popularity, there were some base set forgeries that came out in 2000 and 2001. They included both stickers and actual cards (out of Southeast Asia or Australia). They were found in large quantities on the East Coast, especially at beach resorts. These made the news, and there was a coordinated effort to find and destroy them. But they were not Shadowless.
Since my original E4 conversation I have spoken to the long time collectors and dealers I knew from back in the early 2000s. None of them remember Shadowless cards being discarded by anyone, any more than Unlimited cards were discarded. All of Pokemon rose and fell. I spoke with two dealers who accumulated shadowless cards for me, and neither can remember any cards (other than the stickers and the easily recognizable fakes) being destroyed. But we are East Coast, so perceptions might be different.
As for the above assessments, I spent 12 years as technical staff (and ultimately Technical Director) in print facilities. Not for Carta Mundi, and not for Wizards, but for similar facilities. I am and have been an expert reference for factory card defects in a few MTG forums.