Lets simplify and break down @will’s clam, shall we?
Claim: States that it would not be possible for the new cert would double or more the last price of the 10
Evidence: Pop report on PSA 10’s, 9’s, and 8’s, excluding factor of lower grade for a pack fresh card and using it to estimate a 10 price. He then multiplies it to get the expected value.
Reasoning: states that it would be fair to sell this at a PSA 9 price, and estimating a PSA 10 would only raise your expected value at about $1000.
Claim, Evidence, Reasoning, and a way to tie it all together. This would be graded a 4/4 in any ELA class.
This was your statement:
Since they don’t sell mostly on EV, your market value isn’t fair.
No evidence, no claim. This is the difference between a well thought out and effective argument and a desperate counterclaim.
Well, Can you show evidence of sealed booster vintage packs selling based solely on ev? That’s not what I am seeing in the market. Using wills ev analysis perspective , a heavy shadowless booster pack(not ct scanned) should only sell for roughly $500 based on the EV. I’m not certain what the exact market cost of a confirmed heavy shadowless booster pack is. But I’m pretty sure it’s between 1,500-3,000 dollars.
Psa 9 price is NOT fair value for this pack
Ppl regularly pay $2k+ for shadowless sealed packs on fresh box breaks
And it can still be light
Then there is the whole topic of guaranteed heavy which commands a huge premium but you can still pull a poliwrath, ext
But a sealed guaranteed charizard?
The market would be high on this
If you have a strong ebay account i would suggest to set a $25k-$30k price and field offers from the market and see where ppl are at
You could also switch it to auction after a month or two and a ton of watchers
But if your foolish enough to sell this for 4.5k i will send you the money right now
Now that doesnt mean for the person who buys it that its a smart purchase
Will is right in his EV evaluation
But thats a rational mentality and thats not how everyone will approach this
A lot of people have the mentality of modern and think a pack fresh card will have a good chance at a psa 10
They dont understand how hard it is to grade vintage
In the real world a psa 9 price would be more than fair
You would pay taxes on the purchase, huge grading costs, ext and in all likelihood not score a ten. Psa is grading these cards with extra vigilance
Agree that selling the pack at a big auction house could be good but I wonder how it would be guaranteed for both parties if the buyer wanted to open the pack privately or keep it sealed for a while
if you wanna maximize the value and have the right connections, just sell it sealed to some youtuber with a couple million subs OR some rich gambling bro who will value the potential of getting a 10 at way more than that (coz the box breakers already convinced them that pack fresh = automatic 10 )
With the way PSA grades vintage lately, extremely bad odds at a 10. Asking 8-10 is an insane amount of range though; if an 8 is your bar, then you’ll be ok.
As a shadowless collector I can say…wow! This is awesome and cool to see how it works in practice.
But as a collector, this has truly cooked vintage packs now.
In terms of value it’s gotta be more than a PSA 9 price for sure as you have to factor in the Gambler premium.
Like base set heavies are what 600-700 for a 1/12 chance of a zard that is now worth 1500 in a 9?
Imo I wouldn’t take anything less than $10k for that.
But you can’t put a price on the thrill of opening it! Most likely it’ll 8, but recently someone pulled a psa 10 from Good Time Collectibles packs, but that was from a pristine box.
But I’ve also seen many box breaks where the zard got a 7-8
I personally also recently pulled an unlimited zard and Alakazam that were both 7s from short crimp shadowless blisters (fml).
Single loose packs often have more chance of having cards with damage as they have naturally been moved around more.
This is more inline with where my head was at. What does a heavy pack from a fresh box break sell for? curious.
25-30k seems higher end, but i understand you mostly mean it as a starting point. I guess this is all new though, the idea of selling a guaranteed charizard pack. So who knows what a specific individual would want to spend. as others have mentioned, a “celebrity” type may have additional interests for buying the pack from the average buyer. I will probably throw it on ebay and see if anything happens. Sale seems to me will likely have to be in person though
I bought half of the box from the original owner back in the 2020 boom. He had them stored in his parents safe since he was a kid. There were a total of 5 heavy boosters included. I had only two packs scanned so far. The other pack is a raichu. probably going to send the other packs in soonish.
I dont think its too high because of how best offer works on ebay
Very often you will see sellers list something for maybe 2x market value with best offer with the intent of getting 50-55% of the listed price
If in your head you think your going to get 10k then list it for $25k or best offer
I added 5k there because what your selling is unique/rare and you dont want to cap its potential
Your more than able to price cut later on or switch to auction. If the idea of an auction scares you; there is an option to set a reserve price (at a cost)
Thanks for the info, so it could be that the packs haven’t been “abused” and therefore less chance for whitening.
By cooked I mean unless you’re buying from a sealed box break, vintage packs on the market should be considered as scanned (especially the more expensive stuff).
If you are going to sell it, I’d definitely send it to one of the big auction houses, so they could essentially put their credibility behind it and hype it up. (Like Cheetozard.) I would guess the gambling premium would put the price of it between a PSA 9 and PSA 10, irregardless of how farfetched the odds of a PSA 10 are.
…But there is also added value in the fact that the person buying this gets the feeling of “pulling this Zard from a pack”. So how much is that worth to them? To a whale-collector with a lot of money to burn, it is probably a lot. To traditional collectors, that probably seems yucky, like it cheapens the experience. But a rich whale-collector won’t care. It’s the same reason rich people pay large amounts of money to walk out into a field and shoot a monster buck/elk. (That has effectively been raised in captivity and feed growth hormones.) They don’t care about the backstory, they just want the experience and say they did it. So who knows how much that could be worth to a whale collector.
For what it is worth, it does appear to be well centered. I overlayed a scan of a shadowless Zard I have. (This is not a true scientific analysis, so take it with a grain of salt.)
Can you share what kind of boost pack it is? It may be unlimited.
I highly suggest you go watch several videos of Charizard pulls and then come back. You could include it in a mystery pack where you can guarantee someone gets it. You can rip it and then feel nothing next week. Sealed leaves you the most options. If you want guaranteed $ sell it to someone or rip, grade, sell.
The joy fades pretty quick after rip, the potential remains in a sealed pack.
really cool if that scan is somewhat accurate on the actual centering!
As far as auctioning goes, that would need some investigating into what is would take, as far as I know, nobody has tried selling a scanned pack on auction yet.
Its from a short crimp booster, but confirmed shadowless. I opened a pack already, and in the event of a sale of this pack, I would guarantee the pack to be shadowless or money back.
youre right, sealed is the better overall option. once its opened, its opened. I am probably no longer going to be the one to open the pack anymore after thinking more about it.
)
