The scan shows a zard at least, even if it’s not as clear and you have to strain your eyes to see it, it’s there
I’m sure that it wasn’t cheap to get it scanned and there’s the risk of it getting stolen I wouldn’t send it in as there wouldn’t be a point in doing it if you already know what the rare is and as far to my knowledge you can’t see what the commons are
Keep it sealed for now and open in 10 years with your kid, grandkid, niece or anyone you love for shared experience. Don’t tell them it’s a Charizard, record their reaction and keep these memories alive forever.
I think 8 is probably the most likely grade for pack fresh shadowless. On the high end I would guess between 8-9 but it’s unreasonable to assign a high chance of a 10 simply because it’ll be pack fresh
I’d keep it sealed personally and either hold onto it or sell it. Plenty of shadowless charizards kicking around if you just want the card. The experience of opening one is the real value of the pack. Maybe some content creator wants to film a short and post an open mouth youtube thumbnail of it to boost their popularity. That’s probably worth something to the right person. It’s a very rare experience that the vast majority of people won’t ever have. Slightly diminished because the surprise is lost of course… but still.
Ancetodal evidence of ripping a lot of Vintage packs the last 2-3 years from box openings. I would say the most common grade I got was PSA 8.
But like I said, that’s ancetodal. But I do think it’s fair to say that the chance of getting a Gem Mint card from a 25 yr old pack would be on the lower end.
But at the same time, it’s your best bet at that grade for such a sought after card without coughing up all the dough . That’s why I’d rip regardless.
My opinion would be to keep it sealed, at least for now. Many free shadowless Charizards floating around in the wild, but this is the first report I’ve heard of this iconic card confirmed chilling inside a sealed booster pack. Whatever you choose to do, this is very cool, and thanks for sharing. Big fan of shadowless base set. So nostalgic.
People dont understand your financial position and shouldnt be implying what you should do
A PSA 10 shadowless zard could easily eclipse this mans yearly salary for all we know. What are comps these days for a new cert? 100k? 140k? something crazy like that
But in all likelyhood its not a 10. I remember a CT scanning service that claims they are able to also determine centering. They tested it on a Tom Brady card and determined it would likely be a psa 8… I’m not sure what service level this is or even if it’s been commercialized for that matter but in pokemon I would be more concerned with corner whitening on vintage
A PSA 9 is only going for $4-$5k these days and I would actually say that it’s more likely to be an 8 than it is a 10
but guaranteed sealed charizard i bet you can sell that pack for $20k +
so you need to make that financial decision. The surprise for you is no longer the pull but rather the cards condition
you can guarantee a price on the pack at a multiple of the psa 9 price… Im guessing 4x - 6x (take it with a grain of salt and test the market yourself)
or you can lotto the chance at a psa 10 which has a 0.0055 gem rate
will your chances be better because its pack fresh to sleve? yes, but i doubt it would exceed 5% honestly
Thats just the wing of a charizard, the entire charizard is not yet confirmed… But seriously id open that with the mind set that it could be a psa 8 and look up the value. Maybe a streamer will want it for content and would be willing to pay a premium! Pretty cool knowing theres a zard in there, I wouldnt mind even keeping it sealed honestly and giving it to my kids without telling them whats in it when they come of age.
okay, so I was unaware of how high the potential psa10 price could be. I was thinking based off the 50k sale when estimating the value of the pack. I didnt know a new cert holds higher value. so thanks for sharing that bit.
you are correct in that it is a financial decision, which is what I am investigating. If it does hold a high value as you describe, then it would be a significant sum of money that would go towards buying a home.
where is the best place to get opinions from vintage collectors on what they would estimate the value of a new cert psa10 zard?
New cert, old cert, or middle cert, a bigger factor would be how strong the 10 is, if it were to get one.
There are 58 PSA 10s, 832 PSA 9s, and 1324 PSA 8s. Getting a lower grade for a pack fresh card is a possibility too, but will exclude here. Making an assumption that these rates can be used to estimate the likelihood of grade outcomes (debatable), that would put a 10 chance at 2.6%.
If you want to get at the expected value, let’s take $60k as the PSA 10 value, $4.5k as the PSA 9 value, and $2.5k as the PSA 8 value.
Your expected value would be
($60k*.026)+($4.5k*.376)+($2.5k*.598)=$4,747.
As people have mentioned, if you can sell it for around PSA 9 price, that would seem about fair. Even if you did want to estimate a PSA 10 at $100k (which I wouldn’t), it only raises your EV by about $1000.
My kid is still pissed about it, feels like it means we don’t respect him enough to think he can handle the truth. Not a trust building experience for him. He comes by it honestly, his Mom and I are feral Gen Xers who basically raised ourselves.
your math overall seems pretty good from the EV perspective. But I dont think 4,700 would be a fair market value as I dont believe they sell based solely on EV.