These statements are very clumped together, low end Japanese promos are so plentifull, I struggle to see any growth in them at all. High end promos arr the pinnacle of the hobby, that is where growth is possible.
I would say that for all of these statements, higher end cards have a better chance of growth than low end regardless of promo/english/set card
Thank you for your analysis and reporting your experience, thatās very interesting to read. I would have bet that indians were really eager to join but I 100% admit my ignorance.
A bit relief indeed, but obviously itās not my intention to gatekeep any country.
Itās just that I donāt have any horses in this race (no particularly pricey cards nor cards that I want to sell), so Iām usually a person who get curb-stomped the most at every market expansion.
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Ohh I obviously understand what you mean because I think we are in the same boat. I was indeed just sharing my experience.
Also in context of this thread, if India does decide to become a big player in the TCG space, I think it will be with regards to English and not Japanese, since English is the second most spoken language in the country.
Cheers!
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I think @Dyl already summed up most of my thoughts, but my general sentiment is certainly that vintage Japanese cards still have room to grow.
Japanese promos have such a wide variety, so itās hard to lump them into one āclick to stonkā pile, but I also think that is their appeal. From the most rare cards to imagine to incredibly niche promos, there is everything out there a collector could want. Certainly rarer cards with more identity have a higher chance of increasing in value, but Japanese offers so many more choices to collectors and when it inevitably draws them in, most will find something unique that English cards just donāt offer. Itās hard to believe this discovery experience wonāt spark a fire in a greater mass of collectors, at least for some subsets of these cards. Plus, the higher end cards offer a ceiling and challenge that is hard to replicate with English cards.
As for set cards, I think these will be less sought after. But they can still offer an alternative for English set cards while often being higher quality and having more eye appeal (e.g. shinings). To me this isnāt that different than how it is with ultra modern now, granted the rarity is reduced for some Japanese set cards.
Japanese people care way more about modern cards than vintage.
One of the main reasons why there was a boom in English vintage was because there was a huge gap between when people were exposed & interested in Pokemon cards and when they werenāt. Itās like the west forgot about Pokemon cards for almost 20 years.
Japanese people have been surrounded by Pokemon their entire lives. The nostalgia is simply not there. Pokemon is ingrained in their daily lives. The only way vintage Japanese set cards boom is if for some reason the west makes them boom, which I donāt see happening.
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One time I ran the numbers for the Giratina V alt and estimated the total worldwide market to be on the order of $20 million dollars. About 70% of that number consists of Japanese prints, 30% English. (I considered making a thread explaining these numbers, still can if thereās interest)
Thatās just one card among thousandsā¦ thereās an incredible amount of money tied up in singles, and that means the TCG has to sustain an incredible amount of interest or else prices collapse. So I donāt think āinvestingā in singles is a good idea at all, regardless of language. Any and every card could easily be half the price in 5-10 years.
That said, compared to English, I think Japanese is in a relatively strong position. Japanese prints are the originals, other languages are localized copies. PokĆ©mon is Japanese, and collectors in China, the US, Brazil, it doesnāt matter where, will all be drawn to the originals. If a localized card is worth much more than the Japanese version, I think this is market inefficiency that will eventually be corrected (with a few exceptions). This is especially true of modern cards where the Japanese printing process is noticeably superior.
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We got 100 responses so hereās the resultsā¦
ENG > JPN:
65% disagree, 16% agree
Vintage JPN sets:
57%19%
Vintage JPN promos:
89%
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China will make them boom, not the west 
If you look at some jp eseries chase cards actions over there they are already closing the gap, having āonlyā 30% discount over english. Reason being eseries had similar pullrates than the english. But the chinese market has so much potential i think neo and base will close the gap aswell despite higher pullrates. I havent seen a single english vintage card being auctioned over there in recent times, they dont want them.
Iām curious though, those of us holding Japanese vintage bags of course are going to be bias and try and influence people they are undervalued. However E4 is such a small part of the collecting community. Vintage Japanese promos have already seen quite drastic price increases from their pre-covid prices, Iām really curious just how higher the needle can go on the speedometer? It seems like we may already be locked in on cruise control. If anything the price increases will come from Chinese demand, not some newfound western demand that hasnāt already existed now.
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Shilling/influencing anything on here will have zero net difference, the market is way too liquid and this community way too tiny for this to happen. So i agree with your post, however I do believe that if prices pick up due to chinese demand, plenty westeners are going to fomo in.
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I just pick up vintage JP promos because I like the exclusive artwork and history. Itās a no-brainer.
For Eng vs JP vintage set cards, some of the JP chase cards such as No Rarity Base, Neo Shinings and e-series Crystals are already pretty comparable to their English equivalents.
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E4 was āthe marketā in 2015. In 2024 we are definitely not. These days we only influence the market as much as we have influence on the influencers. Itās healthier this way imo
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What Influencers do we even have influence on?
I am 
overall.
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Personally, I have some level of relationship with most of the āpoke-celebsā that have been here since pre-pandemic. Itās not something I actively leverage for anything though.
You also never know who is reading. Perfect example is that today I think the video Rattle put out today (note: havenāt watch it though) relied on my thread PSA/DNA Pokemon autograph authentication is in a bad place. I know PSA employees watch his channel and other people who are looking to make content will make videos about it too. Assuming I was the main motivation for the video, I basically created a discussion that may not have happened otherwise.
We also have pretty solid ranking on Google search at this point. If you find a gap in available information, anyone can become an authoritative voice on that topic simply by starting a thread.
Very off topic but the point is that the hobby is a very well connected network and you can influence a disproportionately large number of connections if thatās youāre goal and you are strategic in how you do it.
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The fact i only have connections to Smogon Players Lmaooo. I have no connections/relations to people in the tcg sphere. and i think thats kinda funny, cuz its smth im passionate about.
Some of those E-Series chase cards youāre talking about have a lot of western interest thoughā¦ Mostly because people them as a cheaper alternatives to their English counterparts.
I understand China collects Japanese cards (Iāve had many Chinese buyers & I live in Taiwan) but their collecting culture is still very far off from the West.
If you want to collect vintage Japanese set cards because you think China will buy them from you in the future, that is going to be an incredibly risky play for so many reasons.
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Its at its infancy one could say but the trend shows alot of potential
And I agree with you, purely financial wise, there is so many better markets outside of pokemon to speculate/invest in with much better rr. I would never recommend anyone doing that who is in it just for money.
However if you enjoy collecting jp cards, like the aesthetics and the history of them and want your cards to appreciate aswell, maybe give to your kids one day, i would definitely recommend it. There is so much more room for growth.
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Curious. For newer modern cards that are released in chinese, do Chinese buyers prefer them over japanese?
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I agree guys, this is definitely a cow market
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