I know most members here have mostly sealed WOTC products but I see this set just being sold out everywhere and i’m having a hard time just finding a sealed product at a fair price just to open them. What’s the advantage of having these sealed when it just seems to make more sense cracking them open? The Charizard’s already been graded over 2000 times combining BGS and PSA, the tins just had a reprint and I’m sure there’s plenty more in PSA’s backlog. Also the fact that these cards’ print quality is better than ever resulting in more PSA 10s must dilute the value of the cards. Pull rates aren’t that rare either. You’re bound to pull a shiny in a tin, how unpopular the pokemon may be. The set’s graded count is on the same projectory as the evolutions set and yet the card values are going up still towards the $1000 mark getting closer to the Burning Shadows rainbow zard. At least that one is harder to get as a PSA 10 compared to the Shiny. It’s like the Pokemon company just decided to let every kid have a shiny charizard.
To me, it just seems to make more sense to have them opened,and not the sealed. I understand the set is popular with the new and the old collectors alike, but like with any modern product, it’s got a big print run and the over inflated prices on the secondary market is just preying on the desperate people. Who knows 10 years down the line it may be valuable, but with the amount of people hoarding them, the number of cards being graded will not end even in 20 years from now and i’m sure once it hits a certain price point acceptable to the hoarders, the market will be flooded with them.
The question would be, why are people hoarding them and not opening them? I’m sure it’s a preference but I just want to hear members’ opinions. For the members stashing this sealed product, what’s the price point/ROI you’re planning to let go at in the future? Why aren’t you opening them?
There was just some at my Walmart the other day I thought about grabbing. I already have a master set of it and don’t see a huge advantage of holding some $20 boxes/tins right now. Shipping alone is $10-$20. Basically the best you can do is buy whatever is available in your area or online. Or offer some kind of money for people to buy ones in their area for you. For example if I was making even $20 or so I would have grabbed the 4 boxes or whatever was available the other day. And you can always open just a few boxes and buy the rest in singles. Much cheaper that way anyways good luck on your hunt
Once the set stops being printed, the value will appreciate. If the expected value of opening the box exceeds the current box value, shops technically will open the box (and do what you’ve mentioned regarding grading) until it is no longer profitable for them to do so.
Usually the prices of sealed product will be greater than its parts, and this divergence will grow over time.
I cannot really speak for sealed Pokemon, and I’m looking to learn from others here, but for MTG, we’ve had modern sets with lottery cards not unlike this particular Hidden fates set and the Charizard associated with it. After WOTC stopped printing them, the sets slowly appreciated in value. 5 years down the road, the box prices are about double of what you’d have paid for them (Battle For Zendikar, Kaladesh).
It’s a super fun set to open but I always struggle with the valuation of modern sealed product. I opened 52 packs total and got the Charizard in under 25 with a few other GX and stopped while I was ahead and just bought singles.
I just want to open the packs honestly(i just tell my wife it’s my son who wants to open them…), it’s just they are sold out whenever i hear about it being sold. >.< and by no means i’m sure it’s just the collectors or speculators because none of the cards hold value in terms of play.
Secondary market, but there are close to none in stores.
If stores have them, especially online, they also went for prices in this area just because they knew it would still sell.
I do own a company myself and managed to buy about 180 tins 3 months ago for about 18 euro ($20) each VAT included. Within a week I got offers from other companies to take over all my stock for 25 euro ($28-30). I did accept it, could’ve made more but it was a lot less work this way.
EDIT: Some cardmarket data, this is the European TCG-player.
Boosterpacks are really selling for 9.5-11 euro each.
This is a big factor for me too! Shining Legends was about the first set I opened when I got back into the hobby - I have a hand full of different sealed items which I have no intention of ever selling. Bought them back when I had no idea sealed items even tend to appreciate in value.
As for HF, it’s also the go-to set for flea market flippers that don’t know a lot about the hobby. It is/was easy to buy it (in English), not much stategy involved.
Simply put - people are using the investment fallacy that past returns represents future performance. People look at older WOTC and EX area boxes and see how expensive they are. So they think the same thing will happen to modern sealed product.
The big problem now is that there are many more people who are outright investing in sealed product or having sealed “collections”. That’s a big problem because everything is supply and demand. If everyone is “investing” in modern sealed then guess what happens in the future? Supply is still high because everyone has a closet full of sealed product. If supply is high then prices will not appreciate.
The only reason the WOTC and EX era stuff is so valuable as sealed product is because people didn’t think to invest in sealed product.
Anything after phantom forces is probably not investable because of the massive print runs. Just look at the comment’s from smpratte about modern product. He is right. If you want to invest then go with high grade WOTC holos or WOTC sealed. At least that stuff is truly rare.
Plenty of good comments, I’d add that the current market price for a lot of modern sealed boxes have risen during the pandemic and that’s confirming some people’s ideas that HF/UBB/BUS are good ROI holds for the future. Roaring Skies is going for ~110-120, Ancient Origins for ~180-220. Flashfire’s seen a crazy increase too last time I checked. A lot of people who don’t have the startup funds for a WOTC-BW box are gonna buy into “the next big thing.” Charizard sets, Team Up, Ultra Prism, etc. Given the lower capital needed to get some HF tins or SM booster boxes, a lot more people are speculating with them and hoarding them in the hopes that they keep shooting up.
That’s the point i’m trying to make, there just seems to more “investors” than “collectors”. Yes term may go hand in hand but there’s a clear distinction. Investors will not open for nostalgia, they will rid the product at a certain price point and take their profits. Collectors may open them, trade them or sell them to buy something else to further enhance their collection.
And there will be people who sell quick like see below:
but majority i’m sure will hold on to these sealed for a while…a long while…but the rarity will never be there like a skyridge, aquapolis, or any ex box. that’s just my take. and with the number of zards graded, it’d be a no brainer to buy the single card than the sealed product there will always be someone selling them…i just hope these “investors” don’t think the shiny zard will be the next rayquaza gold star or something.
The good thing is that i think it’s really organic interest in the set and the cards, but these sealed products will never be opened if the prices keep going up…
Meanwhile, in reality, Ultra Prism boxes are selling for $400, Team Up and Unbroken Bonds are breaking $200 and Hidden Fates ETBs are approaching $200.
Not everything has to hit WOTC level prices to be investable. Hell, it took 10-15 years to even see any growth on these boxes if you were buying them in 1999-2000. Meanwhile it’s been 1-2 years for some of these sets and already we’re seeing 2-4x prices. Some appreciation has already occurred. It’s not my claim that modern product is the optimal investment but hand-waving modern and regurgitating Scott’s comments (who is actively holding the products I have listed here) does not change reality.
One additional thing about modern products is that although you are losing out on the percent growth we have seen in WOTC boxes, you are trading that for a minimization in risk. I could buy an Unlimited Base box today for $9000 or put the $9000 into modern boxes being sold at distributor prices. Yeah, maybe in a year the base box can jump to $20k but it’s not unbelievable to see it drop to $7k and hold there for a long period of time. Meanwhile with modern product you are buying at what is very likely going to be the historical low for the product and the probability of losing money is extremely low. The worst-case scenario for modern product is breaking even. There is no right or wrong answer, it’s just a trade-off between risk and reward.
good luck on your hunt
