Price of PSA Graded Ex Series Cards

[zorloth]

@mcorey777

@zorloth Ya my last purchase in there I upgraded to near mint and recieved all 5-6 quality with a few shots at 7’s I was definitely pretty mad that I didn’t buy light played like normal. The near mint gamble didn’t pay off this time and the price difference between light played and near mint is usually about double price. I’ve been learning to just buy light played or graded. Near mint is light played anyways half the time unless it’s modern cards

Yup, buying from random vendors that will 100% happen. There are a handful (like actually, probably about 5-6) that send out consistently 8-range cards. But finding those ones took a lot of trial and error. I think I’ve probably ordered from just about everyone on TCGPlayer with EX-era cards at this point lol. Luckily, prices have gone up so quickly that even when I do receive an MP or LP card, I can probably still sell it for a profit on eBay lol. That probably won’t remain true for much longer, but has been the case for the past 2 months.

[hisoka107]

@zorloth

@pfm

I’ve been picking up old school ex holos in PSA 9 for a couple years now when I see them going cheap. There were the obvious ones that were worth something but for the most part I was picking them up typically around $20 each. From a selling perspective, after grading and fees you are left with around $5-10 profit assuming the card was free. PSA 10 copies were not particularly valuable either. There was little to no incentive to grade many of these exs because of this.
Fast-forward to today. Prices have hit a point where people will be inspired to pull out these cards that have been just sitting in boxes or binders and begin grading them, even if they are likely not to get the 10. These are mass-produced items, I guarantee more than 50 mint copies still exist today.
It’s impossible to predict the future. But if you ask me, this class of cards that was sold at giveaway prices that has suddenly become something to pay attention to, it’s the perfect recipe for a sudden growth in supply and subsequently a drop in price if the demand doesn’t scale with it. Again though, I could be dead wrong. Entire philosophies about PSA 9s in general have been rewritten since the start of the year.

I highly doubt the 10 population (or even the 9 population) of most exs is going to increase all that much. There are plenty of exs out there, but the amount of raw ones with PSA 9-10 potential is (in my estimation) pretty small. I bought basically the entire supply of NM exs off of TCGPlayer (not to ‘buyout’ them but to try to salvage PSA 8 quality raw ones for my sets) and I don’t believe I’ve received a single one that would get a PSA 9 let alone a 10. A few 8s maybe, but most are 5-7 range at best. There’s one seller on eBay that I’ve gotten probably ~15 exs from over the past several months and I’ve gotten a few that have 9-10 potential and the rest of them in the 8 range. And his cards are the closest to pack-fresh I’ve been able to find. Besides him, I’ve literally never found a raw ex with 10 potential, and only a handful with 9 potential. And I’ve purchased a lot of them.

As you said, because there previously was so little incentive to grade exs, not that many were graded. But the reality is that most of the ones graded 9-10 were straight from booster packs. Now that’s basically a fantasy. Your average person doesn’t have $5-$15k to spend on a box in hopes of pulling (depending on the set) anywhere from 3-9 exs, of which maybe half will come back 10s. Very, very few people are opening ex boxes these days, and even fewer will be opening them going forward since the cost of acquisition has become so high. Yet this is really the only way to reliably get PSA 9s or 10s on exs. Straight from a pack, most of these aren’t that tough to grade. But these things are fragile as all hell, especially when it comes to getting scratches. There are plenty of raw PSA 8 quality raw ones (not on the market right now, but in existence), but the number of potential 9-10s that haven’t already been graded is pretty damn low, IMO. I would be very surprised if we saw more than a 10-15% increase in the pop numbers of 9s and 10s over the course of the next couple years.

So, given the two main factors I outlined above, that: very few people are now opening EX-era sealed product and very few raw EXs have PSA 9/10 potential, I would not expect the pop numbers to increase that much. Sure, people are more motivated to grade exs. But outside of ones owned by serious collectors, who I imagine would’ve already likely graded 9/10 candidates, I don’t think there are that many raw 9/10 candidates out there still.

I completely agree with that line of reasoning. I do think there are still plenty of raw mint cards out there, but I don’t foresee a dramatic increase in pop number. Perhaps a steady increase over time. While I was reading your post I thought about opening boxes and how crazy it would be for an individual to do that. I thought of PokeRev and how people just throw money at his pack openings. I can see box breaks becoming a possible way for pop reports to increase. I still don’t think they are financially practical, but individual opening packs on his channel aren’t really being financially mindful of the cost efficiency.

[pfm]

@zorloth

@pfm

I’ve been picking up old school ex holos in PSA 9 for a couple years now when I see them going cheap. There were the obvious ones that were worth something but for the most part I was picking them up typically around $20 each. From a selling perspective, after grading and fees you are left with around $5-10 profit assuming the card was free. PSA 10 copies were not particularly valuable either. There was little to no incentive to grade many of these exs because of this.
Fast-forward to today. Prices have hit a point where people will be inspired to pull out these cards that have been just sitting in boxes or binders and begin grading them, even if they are likely not to get the 10. These are mass-produced items, I guarantee more than 50 mint copies still exist today.
It’s impossible to predict the future. But if you ask me, this class of cards that was sold at giveaway prices that has suddenly become something to pay attention to, it’s the perfect recipe for a sudden growth in supply and subsequently a drop in price if the demand doesn’t scale with it. Again though, I could be dead wrong. Entire philosophies about PSA 9s in general have been rewritten since the start of the year.

I highly doubt the 10 population (or even the 9 population) of most exs is going to increase all that much. There are plenty of exs out there, but the amount of raw ones with PSA 9-10 potential is (in my estimation) pretty small. I bought basically the entire supply of NM exs off of TCGPlayer (not to ‘buyout’ them but to try to salvage PSA 8 quality raw ones for my sets) and I don’t believe I’ve received a single one that would get a PSA 9 let alone a 10. A few 8s maybe, but most are 5-7 range at best. There’s one seller on eBay that I’ve gotten probably ~15 exs from over the past several months and I’ve gotten a few that have 9-10 potential and the rest of them in the 8 range. And his cards are the closest to pack-fresh I’ve been able to find. Besides him, I’ve literally never found a raw ex with 10 potential, and only a handful with 9 potential. And I’ve purchased a lot of them.

As you said, because there previously was so little incentive to grade exs, not that many were graded. But the reality is that most of the ones graded 9-10 were straight from booster packs. Now that’s basically a fantasy. Your average person doesn’t have $5-$15k to spend on a box in hopes of pulling (depending on the set) anywhere from 3-9 exs, of which maybe half will come back 10s. Very, very few people are opening ex boxes these days, and even fewer will be opening them going forward since the cost of acquisition has become so high. Yet this is really the only way to reliably get PSA 9s or 10s on exs. Straight from a pack, most of these aren’t that tough to grade. But these things are fragile as all hell, especially when it comes to getting scratches. There are plenty of raw PSA 8 quality raw ones (not on the market right now, but in existence), but the number of potential 9-10s that haven’t already been graded is pretty damn low, IMO. I would be very surprised if we saw more than a 10-15% increase in the pop numbers of 9s and 10s over the course of the next couple years.

So, given the two main factors I outlined above, that: very few people are now opening EX-era sealed product and very few raw EXs have PSA 9/10 potential, I would not expect the pop numbers to increase that much. Sure, people are more motivated to grade exs. But outside of ones owned by serious collectors, who I imagine would’ve already likely graded 9/10 candidates, I don’t think there are that many raw 9/10 candidates out there still.

For a card that is pop 50, a 15% increase is +7.5. If an increase in more than 8 cards in the pop report over a couple years is suprising to you then I think you may be in for a shock.

This same argument was made a couple of years ago when shadowless cards became hot. Many people on here were arguing that based on the apparent scarcity and difficulty to grade, shadowless would/should overtake 1st ed base. I made a similar argument back then that the hidden reservoirs of shadowless would be tapped and sure enough, it happened and there was a brief retrace period.

Of course the story now is a bit different. The pull rates on exs are quite low, for some sets more than others. As we know, these sets tend to have small print runs. Different ex sets will probably behave differently from each other, I dont necessarily expect TRR exs to trend the same way as Ruby Sapphire. I can’t guarantee anything but if a lesson can be learned from the past, it’s not to underestimate the latent supply that is just sitting out there. Buying out TCGPlayer is likely the tip of an iceberg and the cards that are sitting in collections or forgotten about are more likely to be mint than the stuff actively being sold and switching hands

[hisoka107]

@pfm

@zorloth

For a card that is pop 50, a 15% increase is +7.5. If an increase in more than 8 cards in the pop report over a couple years is suprising to you then I think you may be in for a shock.

This same argument was made a couple of years ago when shadowless cards became hot. Many people on here were arguing that based on the apparent scarcity and difficulty to grade, shadowless would/should overtake 1st ed base. I made a similar argument back then that the hidden reservoirs of shadowless would be tapped and sure enough, it happened and there was a brief retrace period.

Of course the story now is a bit different. The pull rates on exs are quite low, for some sets more than others. As we know, these sets tend to have small print runs. Different ex sets will probably behave differently from each other, I dont necessarily expect TRR exs to trend the same way as Ruby Sapphire. I can’t guarantee anything but if a lesson can be learned from the past, it’s not to underestimate the latent supply that is just sitting out there. Buying out TCGPlayer is likely the tip of an iceberg and the cards that are sitting in collections or forgotten about are more likely to be mint than the stuff actively being sold and switching hands

*BIGGEST* VINTAGE POKEMON CARDS FIND OF ALL TIME!

[hisoka107]

You know what wasn’t mentioned in this video. The seller sold the guy all the extras that were sitting at his parents house. So POTENTIALLY, there are a near complete, pack fresh ex series collection that this guy still owns. I think he didn’t complete post ex dragon frontiers.

Also when I was looking up prices of ex series sets, there was a seller who sold sets that graded 9/10 early in january/februrary. A few members here bought them.

[zorloth]

@hisoka107

@zorloth

I highly doubt the 10 population (or even the 9 population) of most exs is going to increase all that much. There are plenty of exs out there, but the amount of raw ones with PSA 9-10 potential is (in my estimation) pretty small. I bought basically the entire supply of NM exs off of TCGPlayer (not to ‘buyout’ them but to try to salvage PSA 8 quality raw ones for my sets) and I don’t believe I’ve received a single one that would get a PSA 9 let alone a 10. A few 8s maybe, but most are 5-7 range at best. There’s one seller on eBay that I’ve gotten probably ~15 exs from over the past several months and I’ve gotten a few that have 9-10 potential and the rest of them in the 8 range. And his cards are the closest to pack-fresh I’ve been able to find. Besides him, I’ve literally never found a raw ex with 10 potential, and only a handful with 9 potential. And I’ve purchased a lot of them.

As you said, because there previously was so little incentive to grade exs, not that many were graded. But the reality is that most of the ones graded 9-10 were straight from booster packs. Now that’s basically a fantasy. Your average person doesn’t have $5-$15k to spend on a box in hopes of pulling (depending on the set) anywhere from 3-9 exs, of which maybe half will come back 10s. Very, very few people are opening ex boxes these days, and even fewer will be opening them going forward since the cost of acquisition has become so high. Yet this is really the only way to reliably get PSA 9s or 10s on exs. Straight from a pack, most of these aren’t that tough to grade. But these things are fragile as all hell, especially when it comes to getting scratches. There are plenty of raw PSA 8 quality raw ones (not on the market right now, but in existence), but the number of potential 9-10s that haven’t already been graded is pretty damn low, IMO. I would be very surprised if we saw more than a 10-15% increase in the pop numbers of 9s and 10s over the course of the next couple years.

So, given the two main factors I outlined above, that: very few people are now opening EX-era sealed product and very few raw EXs have PSA 9/10 potential, I would not expect the pop numbers to increase that much. Sure, people are more motivated to grade exs. But outside of ones owned by serious collectors, who I imagine would’ve already likely graded 9/10 candidates, I don’t think there are that many raw 9/10 candidates out there still.

I completely agree with that line of reasoning. I do think there are still plenty of raw mint cards out there, but I don’t foresee a dramatic increase in pop number. Perhaps a steady increase over time. While I was reading your post I thought about opening boxes and how crazy it would be for an individual to do that. I thought of PokeRev and how people just throw money at his pack openings. I can see box breaks becoming a possible way for pop reports to increase. I still don’t think they are financially practical, but individual opening packs on his channel aren’t really being financially mindful of the cost efficiency.

The thing is, even PokeRev seems to have stopped doing EX-series box breaks. And it’s definitely not due to lack of demand. My guess is that there just aren’t that many EX-series boxes still available to buy. I think that’s largely what has driven the increase in prices of NM/M exs. There is just very little new supply going onto the market. Whereas people are still regularly opening 1st edition Fossil/Jungle/Rocket boxes. It’s why I think the prices of EX-era cards are a very fickle thing. If there are any further increases in demand, I don’t even want to know what it will do to prices. The market is already dry and the interest in the EX-era has not yet reached its peak interest relative to WotC (in my opinion, at least).

[zorloth]

@hisoka107

You know what wasn’t mentioned in this video. The seller sold the guy all the extras that were sitting at his parents house. So POTENTIALLY, there are a near complete, pack fresh ex series collection that this guy still owns. I think he didn’t complete post ex dragon frontiers.

Also when I was looking up prices of ex series sets, there was a seller who sold sets that graded 9/10 early in january/februrary. A few members here bought them.

Yeah, but there are 16 EX-series sets. Even if there are a bunch of people just sitting on stacks of minty exs (which I’m not at all convinced is the case), how many of any given ex does a person have? Not to mention that for some sets a given ex is pulled as little as once per ~4 boxes. Someone would’ve had to opened dozens and dozens of boxes of each EX set (so hundreds of boxes total) to have an appreciable amount of raw exs (from TMTA and later sets, at least, because of the reduced pull rates). exs, as a whole, may not be highly scarce. But there are so many different ones from so many different sets that any given ex is much scarcer than a lot of people realize I think (not saying you, just people in general).

[mcorey777]

Im just glad I’m not a follower I tend to collect sets people aren’t interested in (Yet at least) ex series level X’s primes. Rainbow Rare modern. For some examples and not everyone is open to ungraded cards that arnt mint. Luckily I honestly havnt had to pay extra for any cards maybe a few but not many. And this is simply because I bought early before the popularity begins. Can’t wait to see the future of some of these sets and how much salt people will throw knowing these cards we’re $5-$10 forever haha

[hisoka107]

@zorloth

@hisoka107

You know what wasn’t mentioned in this video. The seller sold the guy all the extras that were sitting at his parents house. So POTENTIALLY, there are a near complete, pack fresh ex series collection that this guy still owns. I think he didn’t complete post ex dragon frontiers.

Also when I was looking up prices of ex series sets, there was a seller who sold sets that graded 9/10 early in january/februrary. A few members here bought them.

Yeah, but there are 16 EX-series sets. Even if there are a bunch of people just sitting on stacks of minty exs (which I’m not at all convinced is the case), how many of any given ex does a person have? Not to mention that for some sets a given ex is pulled as little as once per ~4 boxes. Someone would’ve had to opened dozens and dozens of boxes of each EX set (so hundreds of boxes total) to have an appreciable amount of raw exs (from TMTA and later sets, at least, because of the reduced pull rates). exs, as a whole, may not be highly scarce. But there are so many different ones from so many different sets that any given ex is much scarcer than a lot of people realize I think (not saying you, just people in general).

There’s definitely a lot more to the ex sets than people realize. Some of the sets mirror WOTC sets in the fact they have 60-80% PSA 10 rate. I’m thinking about FRLG and the Gym Series. other sets like TRR and Deoxys are like Jungle and Genesis. I don’t expect the population reports to jump by double in the next few years, but I do expect some significant growth (20%+).

Those factors that you brought up are something that a lot of people that are new to the ex series don’t fully know or appreciate. It’ll be interesting to see where the price point for many of these cards settle in about 9-12 months.

[cooltrainertony]

@hisoka107, That pokerev video is nuts I need to start watching more of his videos. Just that find alone is insane

[fourthstartcg]

Here are the facts, do with them what you will:

• Print runs for EX Series (especially the mid-era sets) are widely known to be the smallest for the entire English TCG
• Pull rates for e-series ex are about 5-6 per box. Once you get past the e-series stuff, you are looking at 2-3 max up through Power Keepers which returns to a higher rate.
• Card condition pack-fresh is good, but nowhere near as good as modern. An ex from a pack is not a guaranteed 10.
• The holo borders scratch incredibly easily. Finding mint condition cards is near impossible. The majority of “mint” eBay cards may look good on the back, but scratches are very common.
• Ex cards cannot be weighed out of packs.
• EX Series was the least popular era of the TCG, when it was printed.

[qwachansey]

The price or availability of current sealed ex boxes means basically nothing to the quantity of psa 9 ex that will eventually be graded. 99%+ of all ex Era sealed product has been opened.

[qwachansey]

Furthermore I love the old ex and would like them to be more appreciated. The days of $30 psa 9 are obviously over. But if you think there are only 8 or fewer psa 9 copies of every ex card that have yet to be graded you are going to be in for a tough time.

I don’t even bother to grade my ex cards if they aren’t clear 10s and didn’t even check the binders until this month for 10s because prices have been so low for so many years. If I submitted cards I’d single handedly be responsible for raising the pop 1/10 of the growth you are expecting. If one person can do that there are many others.

[qwachansey]

Furthermore (sorry don’t mean to pile on) but the ex cards you buy from a place like tcg player or troll and toad are usually purchased by them in bulk. I have sold many bulk cards to them over the years including plenty I regret such as ex series reverse holos at 10 cents each. However even during the ex Era and after no one thought $1 per mint ex or whatever they were offering was a good deal hence why you are receiving psa 7/8 (near mint to nm mint as advertised) when you buy from them and not gem candidates.

[pokeaddict84]

I just sold this card for close to 50. If that doesn’t say old EX are on the rise nothing does. lol

[cooltrainertony]

@pokeaddict84

I just sold this card for close to 50. If that doesn’t say old EX are on the rise nothing does. lol

Dang that card has some love on it! haha

[hisoka107]

@pokeaddict84

I just sold this card for close to 50. If that doesn’t say old EX are on the rise nothing does. lol

that thing is sad. You should probably bury it.

[zorloth]

@qwachansey

Furthermore I love the old ex and would like them to be more appreciated. The days of $30 psa 9 are obviously over. But if you think there are only 8 or fewer psa 9 copies of every ex card that have yet to be graded you are going to be in for a tough time.

I don’t even bother to grade my ex cards if they aren’t clear 10s and didn’t even check the binders until this month for 10s because prices have been so low for so many years. If I submitted cards I’d single handedly be responsible for raising the pop 1/10 of the growth you are expecting. If one person can do that there are many others.

Obviously there aren’t 8 or fewer raw PSA 9+ candidates of a given ex waiting to be graded. My estimate of the pop report not growing by more than 10-15% could be off, obviously. But I think the crux of what I was saying holds true: there aren’t that many PSA 9/10 candidate raw exs left to be graded. By this I mean that I think it’s fewer than was being implied earlier in the thread when it was stated that there would be substantial growth in the pop numbers.

And I think it also depends highly on which EX-set we’re discussing. You attached a picture of a bunch of EX Dragon exs, which are, behind Ruby and Sandstorm exs, the easiest to find of the entire era. But there are sets such as, for instance, Unseen Forces, which has 12 or 13 different exs (depending on whether or not we count Celebi, as I’m still not exactly sure how the pull rate worked for it) and an ex pull rate 1/3rd that of EX Dragon’s. So we’re talking about exs that are, individually, 3-4x as rare as EX Dragon exs (assuming equal print runs).

Additionally, I’m realizing that it’s very possible that I’m overestimating what it takes for a card to get a 9. At this point, I’ve cracked probably ~10 PSA 9 exs and I’ve consistently been unimpressed by the quality. There are always significant surface scratches, and even minor edge whitening. I’ve also cracked easily 20+ PSA 8s and many aren’t even in the vicinity of what I consider ‘NM.’ Just this past week, I bought and cracked a PSA 8 FRLG Charizard ex that I promptly resold on eBay since it wasn’t actually NM. Regardless, I’ve adjusted my standards for what ‘NM’ is dramatically, since I don’t have infinite financial resources that would allow me to purchase and crack 10s all day long. I’m beginning to realize that PSA’s grading standards aren’t as high as I thought they were. Or perhaps I’m just jaded from having been a pretty hardcore MTG foil collector. If there was any surface scratching on a foil I bought as NM, I would return it. But it seems that a lot more wear is tolerated for ‘NM’ Pokemon cards – which largely makes sense given how much more fragile Pokemon holo cards are. But it’s still something I’m getting used to. Since my cracked PSA case sample size remains relatively small, I’ve been chocking it up to just bad luck…but it’s very possible that I’m just out of tune with what qualifies as PSA 9/10 quality.

Which, if true, means I probably agree with you that I am underestimating the supply out there. I guess what I will maintain is that the amount of exs out there that qualify for me as ‘NM’ is low. By ‘NM,’ I was going more by the MTG foil definition, where any non-factory surface flaw makes a card not NM. But if exs can have sparse, minor holo scratching and still be considered NM, then there are certainly a good amount of those out there. Not an insane amount, of course, but much more than I was implying I thought to the be the case earlier.

[hisoka107]

@zorloth no offense but it seems like you have ridiculously high standards. NM cards can have a fair amount of scratches and whitening. I’m not sure if you’re exaggerating but about returning a card if it had a scratch because it’s not NM.

[zorloth]

@fourthstartcg

Here are the facts, do with them what you will:

• Print runs for EX Series (especially the mid-era sets) are widely known to be the smallest for the entire English TCG
• Pull rates for e-series ex are about 5-6 per box. Once you get past the e-series stuff, you are looking at 2-3 max up through Power Keepers which returns to a higher rate.
• Card condition pack-fresh is good, but nowhere near as good as modern. An ex from a pack is not a guaranteed 10.
• The holo borders scratch incredibly easily. Finding mint condition cards is near impossible. The majority of “mint” eBay cards may look good on the back, but scratches are very common.
• Ex cards cannot be weighed out of packs.
• EX Series was the least popular era of the TCG, when it was printed.

I have no doubt that you know your shit, but I’m very curious where you got those pull rates numbers from. I’ve observed a pull rate of closer to ~8 exs per box for RS, SS, and DR. And then 3 exs for each set afterwards, including Power Keepers. I’ve seen it stated multiple times that Power Keepers had a higher ex pull rate, but from the data I’ve collected that doesn’t seem to be true. Obviously I don’t have access to enough data to determine the pull rates with any real degree of precision, but your stated pull rates are outside of the margin error of the pull rates I’ve observed – so it’s clear that you have different sources than me.

By “ex cards cannot be weighed out of packs,” I’m assuming you mean that the weight of packs of with exs doesn’t differ from that of other heavy packs with regular holo rares?