Price of a Heavy 1st Edition Base Set Booster

Market
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Seems pretty fairly priced

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Was really confused with the comments in prices in here based on the last sales, understood the last sales have no validation as singular data points. The problem I have is that with the agreement that 1st edition booster box was last sold for $375k & there is one listed for $450k

Why would heavy packs sell for $25k? & Why would light packs sell for 10k?
That would make an unsealed booster box value of 540k. Note there is a sealed box on the market for $450k interesting

To the last heavy pack of 21.2 grams selling for $14,999.00 (Nov 30)
To the last light pack selling for $6,248.79 (Nov 20)

Which would make an unsealed booster box value be $330k makes a bit more sense?

I wouldn’t pay over $6250-7500 & $15,000-18,0000 for light & heavy packs in the current market with a $450k box listed.


www.gradedpower.com/catalog/pokemon_sealed_product-pokemon_booster_box/base_set_1st_edition_booster_box_limited_printing_sealed/294489

That’s just my 2 cents on that one & private sales are usually at a reduced cost sooo if anyone could explain it to me so I could understand I’d be greatly appreciative!

vr

odds

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63

I know of a private sale for a little heavier pack that occurred within the last 2 weeks for almost 30

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I think there’s going to be a big price range on heavy 1st edition booster packs that is going to be *heavily* tied to the credibility of the seller.

$15-30k seems like a huge range but it doesn’t shock me for something like this.

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How when the last one sold for $15k seller is probstein123 with a feedback score of 785k 99.8% who has so much more credibility to command double the price?

vr

odds

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That’s fair, but remember that you can’t necessarily tell if a pack contains a holo in it from weight alone. That’s where the origin of the pack / credibility of the seller really comes into play.

It’s a fact that big name sellers making private deals are getting more than what that one sold for.

Also, to some extent it might be a matter of this being a product that doesn’t have a clear market price at all, so random auctions could be very hit or miss.

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They are a consignment service like PWCC, so anyone can send their packs in. The credible people are people who do box breaks like z and g. Who open the box and then can weigh the packs so you know the heavies and lights for this box. Each box has different pack weights.

I could send a pack in to probstein with a heavy weight (would not know how much that is but aye) and it could contain a holo or not depending on the box it came out of. But you will not be sure, so it will yield a lower price.
Also I think probstein is on a blacklist for being caught shilling cards.

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If it was simply a numbers game, this hobby would be easy :blush:

You can’t just simply look and say “hey the sum of its parts are worth more than the whole that’s impossible.”

  1. Not a ton of people in this hobby have 450K to spend. A lot more have 10K to spend. Higher demand, equals higher relative price.
  2. I’ve seen a lot more fake sealed 1st ed base boxes than fake 1st ed booster packs. Maybe that’s wrong, but that’s what I’ve personally seen and it makes me (and I’m sure others) have a more secure buying experience buying a heavy pack vs a box.
  3. Heavy doesn’t mean guaranteed holo. So you may just be buying a light pack, even “super heavy” ones. You need to know the light packs weights in the box, period to really have that 99.99% chance (I guess there is never a certain 100%). I have 11 of my 12 heavies that I know for certain the weights of the lights in the box. The 12th pack I do not, so I can’t consider that “guaranteed”. Also, you have to realize weights change. One of my packs was 21.08 when I got it. I weighed it 6 months later, it is 20.92. People consider “21 grams” the threshold of heavy vs light a lot of times, but you have to realize that weights change based on simple things like the scales used or the atmospheric changes.
  4. You don’t realize how hard it would be to sell those 12 heavy packs once you broke open the box. Personally if I do sell my heavy packs one day, not only will my buyer pool be pretty small because of the price, but it will be even smaller due to the fact it has to be to someone who isn’t going to do the whole “hey man, opened the pack and no holo. Gunna need a refund” scam routine. Seriously, this keeps me up at night if I think about it, I might never sell just due to that fact.
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It’s always simply just a numbers game, that’s how it works it’s just what numbers you’re putting into the equations. That has no relation to this hobby it strictly correlates to the investment aspect. Of over paying for a product, all these private sales listed in this thread and “offers” to me is simply talk and not actual data points.

  1. I understand most people don’t have 450K as well as most people don’t have 10&25k PP, I would never suggest investing in a single pack at $25k when there are other WOTC booster boxes at that price point. I understand more people have 10-25k but there isn’t enough data points to justify 10-25k that’s a lot of speculation
    2.Well by the simple numbers I can open the sealed box and check a few packs as the packs are evaluated at 90K over 1st edition listed box price so what is the concern there? Yes I wouldn’t advice making that size transaction over the internet as I wouldn’t buy a house over the internet either. However the is a risk associated with every transaction, I don’t believe that fake 1st edition boxes are really that big of a problem. As the seal doesn’t bring a premium that is very concerning to me.
  2. Heavy doesn’t guaranteed a holo, so you just made that point. If you’re selling by weights why do you ever have to grantee one? The market will decide the thresholds and you can provide evidence of the source of your pack. & that is an assumption the difficulty maybe for someone without an established network… I’m deff paying more attention to pokemon right now as it’s never been a focus market just a side thing of mine but I’ve been in antiques and collectibles for a long time. That just goes to liquidation of item which is always going to be a much longer period of time in antique and collectible investing esp when you get to more scarce/rare items that aren’t frequently bought and sold. less sales data, smaller buyer group, etc… – call the last sales a fluke or an outlier, but i’ve yet to see the market stable enough to claim such high prices esp without proof.

That just doesn’t really explain to me why there are so many claims of prices that are being accepted with no validation, to me that is just speculation. When there is risk associated with both buying a “fake box” which I find to be low and there is risk associated with buying a light “heavy” pack and yes there are dishonest people in any industry but as an investor you’re taking the risk based on your knowledge.

All said and done I understand the argument of selling 1 product over 36 products the effort associated with it etc, however I don’t think you can convince me that a sealed booster box doesn’t command a premium over loose packs that have more risks associated with them.

So I guess show me the proof of sales cause I’ve looked and I couldn’t find any and I’m pretty good at google!

Thank you for the response!

vr

odds

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Ok man, then go buy it and open it :blush: I’m guessing you aren’t because you fall in one of these categories I listed above.

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Understood, the prices aren’t justifiably from an investment perspective and I think that’s where my brain just shuts off. When the market is so volatile and there is so much speculation. I’d still like to see these private sales maybe it would shed some light.

Thanks for the reply

vr
odds

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Hmm I guess you don’t have any proof of sales, and why would I buy something for $450k when my assessment is that the packs would only net $330k that would be a loss. Market tells me a sealed box is ~375K and an unsealed box would be around ~330k which makes sense. The personal attacks are cute, but not warranted.

Not so thankful for the response!

vr

odds

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I appreciate your point of view, but I’m sorry, it’s not always just a numbers game. There are many human elements at play here that help influence price. It isn’t as simple as looking at it as Lx24 + Hx12 = current market price for a sealed box.

  1. As @jcincy101, stated, at this high of a price point, your buyer pool is extremely limited. There is a premium on accessibility here, and people will pay for that. Lets use a very interesting item as an example: 1st Base Set Blister packs. Generally known as an “unweighable” item, multiple examples sold last week on PWCC’s (very reputable seller) auction block for roughly $15k each. Multiply that by 36, and what do we have? $540k. Well over current market price for a sealed box.
  2. Yes, you absolutely could open a box and sell the packs individually for a combined value over the box’s, and I don’t think anyone would be surprised. This is nothing new and we see it happen all the time. Box breaks are now a staple in the hobby (do I even need to cite all the recent examples?) and people happily pay a premium for those packs, particularly so on a 6-figure box that is so out of reach for many.
  3. You’re right, “heavy” doesn’t guarantee a holo. However, people are more than happy to gamble on a 1/16 shot at THE holo. Ask yourself, what makes you think they won’t take their chances on if a pack, shown to be 21.xx or so, is actually heavy? Don’t underestimate human impulse when it comes to the possible “golden ticket”.

To touch on sales claims legitimacy, multiple, highly credible people within this forum have made claims of privately sold prices, and I don’t see any reason not to believe them. There is now an inherent trust in their years of experience, thousands of insightful contributions to this forum/hobby, and confidence in their extensive networks. So when X, Y, or Z simply say something sold for $$$$, no one really doubts it.

Holy grail items don’t behave traditionally. So finally, I think its important to appreciate just how much prices can fluctuate or even just skyrocket when dealing with items as rare as 1st Edition Base sealed products. Oftentimes, going rates are simply defined by how much someone is willing to pay, as a cheaper option can’t be found with ease.

Hopefully this touched on most of your points. Thanks for reading.

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Yes it’s not simple arithmetic, however there is an equation that allows for variables. Understood there are easy variables to recognize such as pack artwork but solving for what % increase does each pack art work command would require more data points. Example from the heavy sale I listed of $15k it was a venusaur what would a charizard artwork bring in. This would just be the surface level of data points… which we could get into a much deeper analysis but from my perspective everything is quantifiable and fits in a mathematical equation.

There is going to be some price relativity from a sealed box to loose packs, now that is really the question I’m struggling with processing the answer. I can totally be looking at it ass backwards but I’m simply attempting to understand where/how these specific products will settle.

There is a big opinion I have that a sealed booster box should cost more than the loose contents, I also would never personally invest or tell someone to invest in a single pack. That to me is someone stepping out of their playing field and there are better options in terms of investing. – Note in my opinion all WOTC sealed products are a 10+ year investment

  1. For the blisters outside of PWCC on ebay I see $8500 sale OCT 28 $9500 NOV 21 $27500 (ART SET) NOV 21 & with PWCC $15,100, $15,100, $12,300 (with not actually looking at the listings the only thing surprising to me is the 12k blister is the Charizard)

These margins exist from a point being made of rep sellers, I think what I failed to communicate is I’m not going to pay the premiums that a rep seller would bring as if I don’t personally have the knowledge/network to buy at the price they are purchasing it’s not something I’m interested in.

I also think blisters are slightly in a different category from light & heavy packs. While they say they are “unweighable” is that because no one is sitting on sealed boxes of blisters and no data points? As heavy packs range per box, I’d make the assumption if you knew the source of the blister you would be able to determine however that isn’t the scenario or even if you cant this becomes more to me a per-say gamble.

I say it becomes a gamble with the mindset that at the end of the day the value comes from what’s inside of the box, pack etc as charizard goes up box goes up and vise versa box goes up charizard goes up while this isn’t so linear there is a correlation as noted I’m not heavily invested into this market as it’s never been a focus. So if a Heavy is worth $25k and a Light is $10k buying something unweighable for 15k your risk reward seems pretty justifiable if in fact the market demand is there which I just don’t personally see & I guess we will get into that point soon.

  1. Box Breaks are targeted to a whole different market, I personally don’t want someone opening my packs for me and to mention @jcincy101 , uses the only “box break” format I’d even consider purchasing as the transparency of purchase and margins of profit he is looking to make I can justify in my head for the services he is providing. But note that is me as a collector or me as a gambler taking that 1/3 risk to pull a holo of an unweighted pack enjoying that experience and not buying a pack based on the weight. As I know there is no way to re-sell that as “unweighted” once it’s in my possession. I can only sell based on the actual weights or open the packs and sell the contents to liquidate the product if I needed to… & not to go off but that’s also a thought what is the fastest way to liquidate, what is the most profitable way to liquidate… do you open the packs and grade do you grade the pack yadda yadda but that’s off topic.

  2. I think you’re exactly correct with that but I don’t believe I’m underestimating it, while it’s not for me that is what sellers and investors are banking on that impulse. There becomes a need to evaluate the risk and reward of each weight with the assumption we don’t know the source of the loose pack and the weights of the other packs. What is the heaviest known light back & the lightest known “heavy” pack, and the range of uncertainty… and when does the uncertainty level off and you can say X weight is at an acceptable risk based on the price it commands.

Credibility is something for me that isn’t taken lightly, you really never know but I’m not knocking anyone’s claims but I would like to see the data points to be able to use them when doing analysis. It’s not that I don’t trust these individuals or believe the prices they are stating, but it’s not useable information. & @jcincy101 , you make this point in your market update videos if I’m not mistaken and maybe previously I didn’t communicate my stance or position clear enough.

And yes if there is say only a handful of these items coming to market a year the price is going to have a range, however this is a very short period of time to have such imo a massive range which I would chop up more to people speculating the price the market being volatile.

Each product has it’s margins so if they are buying it at X and selling at Y, I wouldn’t advise buying in at Y for 1st edition products. If we were talking about trophy cards where its actually scarce not simply rare it’s a different conversation.

Thank you for the reply! Was insightful on your perspective, I think there there are multiple lenses to look at a market and I’m currently not in the buying mode for most pokemon products and I’m very cautious with the state of the market.

vr

odds

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75

I have 8 1st Ed base packs that weigh in the 20.70s and 20.80s and Im convinced they are all holo packs.
I’ll be weighing and opening them, along with 16 others, for charity with ALL proceeds going to The AOKI Foundation. It’s a total donation of the contents except for one Charizard if ones pulled. No packs will be sold.

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I’ve read your posts, you have an excellent way of thinking, with your investment mind.

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I have quite a few myself and have been getting offers around 18-20k for mine

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Awesome! You sold one of these a couple weeks ago correct and had it opened live during the charity box break? There’s proof of a sale for the people asking.

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To your point about weights changing, this has happened to me. I’ve been weighing my packs from time to time recently because of recent postings and also for archiving purposes. there’s definitely a swing of up to 0.05g i’m noticing on a few packs. i wonder if this has to do with the climate and atmospheric pressure of the location we are in. dry vs wet, high altitude vs low altitudes. those hundredth of a gram matters.

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although as people we like to simplify things, sometimes we may oversimplify things. reality is messy, and i think you’ve discovered there are a variety of factors and variables that you consider in your own estimation of value and worth that depend on elements of whim. how do you assign a value to “credibility” for instance. what value do you assign an item for “accessibility”? these are all judgment calls. the math is based on something that is fundamentally fickle and discrete. you can’t really assign a mathematical number to these values. therefore, i think a pure math application in valuation of pokemon collectibles will fall short in grasping its complexity and dynamism. it takes experience and context to really have a good grasp. this is what makes collecting and investing in pokemon very fun and full of opportunities.

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