I have a heavy 1st ed base booster pack (weighs 21.22) and am just wondering how much it is worth. Not looking to sell it.

Thanks,

Mav

I have a heavy 1st ed base booster pack (weighs 21.22) and am just wondering how much it is worth. Not looking to sell it.

Thanks,

Mav

Lot of gamblers out there I bet pretty high.

Ebay sold listings

None recently sold, one listed for sale currently @ $4400 (from Greece).

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In those cases the current value is more than likely between the last sold price and current asking price.

I’ve been looking for one of these for my collection. I’d pay $3500 for one.

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lordsnore:

I’ve been looking for one of these for my collection. I’d pay $3500 for one.

Really? Why exactly? Just curious.

KingPokemon:

lordsnore:I’ve been looking for one of these for my collection. I’d pay $3500 for one.

Really? Why exactly? Just curious.

It’s part of my next collection goal. Original goal was to get every 1st edition booster and wotc e-series packs. Now that I have that goal out of the way, much thanks to you and some other efour members , I’m trying to get my hands on one heavy pack from each of those sets.

Well, I guess if you broke it down it’s not terrible. A PSA 10 in each holo is about $60,000.00+. In PSA 9 maybe $12,000.00. So you may get 25% 10s and hopefully 75% 9s.

So…$24,000.00 valuation devided by 15 equals $1,600.00 per pack value. You can add a little for the non holos.

Now, since I can hear you all laughing at Gary trying to do math, once you stop laughing, how’d I do lol.

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KingPokemon:

Well, I guess if you broke it down it’s not terrible. A PSA 10 in each holo is about $60,000.00+. In PSA 9 maybe $12,000.00. So you may get 25% 10s and hopefully 75% 9s.

So…$24,000.00 valuation devided by 15 equals $1,600.00 per pack value. You can add a little for the non holos.Now, since I can hear you all laughing at Gary trying to do math, once you stop laughing, how’d I do lol.

Can’t put a price on possibly pulling a mint 1st ed Zard that’s why they’re not $1600 haha

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KingPokemon:

Well, I guess if you broke it down it’s not terrible. A PSA 10 in each holo is about $60,000.00+. In PSA 9 maybe $12,000.00. So you may get 25% 10s and hopefully 75% 9s.

So…$24,000.00 valuation devided by 15 equals $1,600.00 per pack value. You can add a little for the non holos.Now, since I can hear you all laughing at Gary trying to do math, once you stop laughing, how’d I do lol.

Forgot the most important part of your math for sealed packs: gambler’s premium multiplier.

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@garyis2000 ,

I think it’s a fair price. Scott bought his box for $65,000, not including the buyer’s premium of course. If he were to sell each heavy pack for $3500 and the light packs for $900-$1000 each it’d be close to what he purchased the box for. Of course if someone actually has a heavy 1st edition base pack and had a counter offer to my $3500 I’d glady consider it.

By the way congrats on reaching 13,000 posts

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lordsnore:

@garyis2000 ,

I think it’s a fair price. Scott bought his box for $65,000, not including the buyer’s premium of course. If he were to sell each heavy pack for $3500 and the light packs for $900-$1000 each it’d be close to what he purchased the box for. Of course if someone actually has a heavy 1st edition base pack and had a counter offer to my $3500 I’d glady consider it.

By the way congrats on reaching 13,000 posts

Thanks. I didn’t notice:)

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I’ll do some quick math just for the fun of it.

Let’s go under the assumption that the pack is in fact heavy (guaranteed holographic card) and that all the cards in the pack have a 75% chance of being PSA 9 and a 25% chance of being PSA 10.

There are 15 possible holos, each of which is equally likely to be pulled.

For each card, I’m going to add up 4 numbers - the current value of the card in PSA 10 condition and the value of the card in PSA 9 condition (times 3). My numbers may not be perfect, but I’m guesstimating based on recent sales data.

Alakazam: $3000 + 700(3)

Blastoise: $5000 + 1000(3)

Chansey: $5000 + 600(3)

Charizard: $40000 + 5500(3)

Clefairy: $3000 + 400(3)

Gyarados: $2500 + 500(3)

Hitmonchan: $4000 + 350(3)

Magneton: $2500 + 300(3)

Mewtwo: $2500 + 600(3)

Nidoking: $1400 + 400(3)

Ninetales: $4000 + 400(3)

Poliwrath: $1300 + 350(3)

Raichu: $3000 + 500(3)

Venusaur: $3000 + 1000(3)

Zapdos: $1600 + 400(3)

Then divide by 60 different possibilities (15 possible cards each with a 1 out of 4 chance of being PSA 10 and a 3 out of 4 chance of being PSA 9).

The average value of the guaranteed holographic pull would be **$2,010**.

Obviously this estimate is highly flawed, for example it doesn’t even take into account that some higher value cards (Chansey) are probably harder to get graded a 10 than some of the lower value cards (Zapdos). Also, and this is the scary part, there is a real possibility that PSA decided to become extremely strict without giving out PSA 10 grades to Charizard, based on how little the population has increased in the last couple of years.

Of course, you also get some commons/uncommons in the pack, but on average these will be worth little, although there is a chance you could get lucky with something like a PSA 10 Red Cheeks Pikachu, Wartortle, or Dratini. But in the best case scenario, the expected value of the commons/uncommons probably is only adding another $300 in value or so.

So my extremely rough and flawed estimate for the value of the cards in the pack, after grading, is **$2,300**. All things considered, this is probably a generous estimate for what you can expect to find in the pack based on current market values. I would feel more confident in saying the true number is closer to **$2,000**.

So… if you were to buy a pack for $3,500 and then spend another $100 or so to get the cards graded, that’s a solidly losing value proposition.

Except… and here’s the kicker… **you can’t put a value on the thrill of opening the pack**. Maybe you want to do it just for that roughly **1 in 60 chance** of pulling a PSA 10 1st edition Charizard. If you want to have any chance at all of pulling such a card, there’s no other way to do it.

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@hyruleguardian, the average value is $1750 (before grading fees) and this is highly skewed by the PSA 10 Charizard. Your median value would be $575.

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Yeah heavy packs for $2000 would be bought instantly on eBay that gambler premium is pretty large

jcincy101:

Yeah heavy packs for $2000 would be bought instantly on eBay that gambler premium is pretty large

Got a buyer here at $3500 here

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the thing I don’t like about heavy packs is that the seller might have gotten the good pulls from opening packs and is now selling the rest of his box, or he opened one pack and realized that the print quality of that box is not PSA 10 worthy. Then there is also a chance that a heavy pack doesn’t contain a holo at all.

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chappo:

the thing I don’t like about heavy packs is that the seller might have gotten the good pulls from opening packs and is now selling the rest of his box, or he opened one pack and realized that the print quality of that box is not PSA 10 worthy. Then there is also a chance that a heavy pack doesn’t contain a holo at all.

That’s very true. But if I remember correctly @garyis2000 pulled 3 1st edition base zards from one box and other times where he pulled 2. So even if the person did get good pulls that doesn’t really mean the rest of the packs won’t contain anything good.

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charizandrew:

@hyruleguardian , the average value is $1750 (before grading fees) and this is highly skewed by the PSA 10 Charizard. Your median value would be $575.

Where are you getting the $1750 figure from? The math from the estimates I was using was $2,010. But having said that, some of the values I used could be skewed slightly towards the high side.

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