I’ve been musing about a few things recently and thought I would share to see if everyone agrees.
The nature of pokemon collecting is that it exists in multiple states. Sealed Product, Raw Cards, and Graded Cards. Raw cards and graded cards are capable of transitioning between two states but of course sealed product can never be reverted back to sealed product once opened. Would you agree that it is inevitable that all sealed pokemon product will cease to exist at some point? Even though nature is a player here, let’s for the sake of this thought exercise ignore the fact that physically paper/plastic degrades over time and accidents can happen such as flooding/fire ect. that would physically remove product even if the owner were to wish it remained sealed. We are approximately 20 years now into the English Pokemon TCG. Lets say we are at 25% of sealed product left from Call of Legends (2011) and earlier in just 10 years. The rate of things being opened has decreased and will continue to decrease as sealed product becomes more valuable and harder to obtain. Even if a 1st edition base box passes through 3 generations of owners (75 years or so) statistically at some point regardless of value an owner is going to open that product. So in 100 year, 500 years 1000 years there will no long be any product left despite the efforts/wishes of the community. How long do you all think it may take? I still see vintage boxes being opened like crazy.
My second musing has been that it is inevitable that the quality of PSA 10 cards on average for heavily graded cards will/have peaked and will decline over time. Fresh cards “true new 10s” are finite as the way to obtain them will dissapear. As very little new 10s are opened more and more PSA 9s will creep into the 10 pool. People will continue to crack open PSA 9 cases and submit them and they have an eternity to try. Since grading is subjective you could hypothetically say that every PSA 9 that currently exists is a 10. Over long periods of time and compounding human error this will cause the PSA 10 pool to continue to degrade in average card quality. The big question is what does this mean for the hobby? Will higher end grades become meaningless as pure persistence overcomes quality control over decades?
I think 100 years is still interesting to think about however, 500 years I would pretty much doubt Pokemon would still be alive. If you think about stuff from 1500s or even 1800s what kind of stuff even exists from that time is rare.
The PSA grading question I find a lot more interesting, I am not too familiar with the process but if indeed you could resubmit a card for evaluation an infinite amount of times and there is a chance it might become a 10, I’d say the PSA system is kind of flawed.
I believe some stuff will stay sealed forever. Say I put it in my will to whoever I leave my sealed stuff to when I die that “x,y, and z product must stay in the family, it must never be sold or given away and it must never be opened ever. And this trend must continue as long as time ticks.” Say my will recipients and their will recipients and so on always honor that will. And if its stored in a waterproof container in a fire proof safe. It could then last forever. It’s totally possible in my opinion that some sealed stuff will be around til the good Lord comes back and destroys this wretched earth. If Jesus saves my fossil booster box when he returns that would be super cool!
Heirlooms rarely last past the grandparents because few people have ever met their great grandparents thus have no sentimental attachments to their belongings.
It’s inevitable that more and more of the sealed stuff will eventually be open, yes.
I don’t think it’s inevitable that *all* of the sealed stuff will eventually be opened… At least, until the day comes that all humans either die or completely lose interest in Pokemon.
Or it gets bought by another investor who keeps it sealed for the same reasons. I think there’s a certain $ amount when its simply impractical to buy sealed if you actually want whats inside. I’d say 1st edition base booster boxes have definitely crossed that line.
I never quite understood the whole “if I die you better not sell all my valuables” mindset. You’re dead. If your family wants to keep some stuff to remember you by then they will, I’m not writing in my will “You have to keep all of my thousands of cards, sealed product, video games, magazines, and other collectibles in the family forever and ever”. I got my use out of them so you might as well sell them and get my investment back out of them.
Inevitably the Sun will grow to encompass the orbits of Mercury and Venus, and the Earth will become a wasteland. All human life remaining on Earth will die.
Inevitably we will all die well before that happens. Inevitably if you add 1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16…on to infinity you will arrive at 2. Inevitably all sealed product will be opened.
I disagree with the second point because “every 9 is a 10” is quite the false equivalence. We can go up the line with this argument (if every 1 is a 2, if every 2 is a 3, etc. etc. until we end up with every 1 being a 10) so it doesn’t hold true logically.
When we stretch things to infinities and inevitabilities we get some funky and frankly not very relevant points (except in mathematics and physics and philosophy).
Not sure there’s any “inevitable’s” in Pokemon collecting. At least none that could occur in the next couple decades.
There are plenty of “imminent’s” though.
