Thought I’d share one of my many shower thoughts (well, a question in this case).
Because people are now so in-tune with established collectible markets and well-versed in spotting new trends, which is made even easier by the internet, I feel that the chances of a new, organic collectible market forming are tiny (not just for trading cards, but for any collectible item). The Pokemon card collector’s hobby wouldn’t be what it is today if everyone had the same foresight as Gary. Look at Funkopop - a collector’s hobby that will probably go the same way as Beanie Babies. You literally never see these things outside their original, minty-fresh packaging. There’s just absolutely no room for an organic collector’s market with growth potential to form because everyone had the same idea from the get-go. I’m not so naive to think that strong collectible trends will never form again, I just can’t see this happening with any great probability, and if it does it’ll probably form around something that has been relatively under the radar. What are your thoughts on this? Am I missing something more fundamental?
I do believe it will be harder to see new collectibles rise since most kids nowadays spend their childhood on cellphones and ipads. Althoug some of my friends have kids that still collect pokemon cards and watch the show so this hobby is deff here to stay in my opinion.
I would just say bro, collecting and collectables have been going on for hundreds if not thousands of years and if it’s not pokemon or Funko Pop or comics or stamps anymore something else will rise.
This sounds to me like you are trying to find the next big thing that will soar value wise. At the heart of collecting is people acquiring things that they like regardless of value. My interpretation is that you want foresight into what the next big thing will be. If we all knew that we would all be rich one day. Things like that have to happen organically. It has to be something where imo kids have to be like i want this as every gift for a long time and then want it again as adults like what we have with pokemon. I just don’t know if we will see that for a very long time. I don’t remember where i saw it, but i saw a study at one point that said that kids who where born in the mid 80s through the 90s have more nostalgic feelings than any other generation. it said that due to technology there was such constant change and evolution that these kids did not experience a full cycle of certain events (i.e. leaving pokemon originally wasnt because it had run its course but rather that something else came out to replace it in our lives). Operating under this mentality, it is hard to pick out what the next big thing will be when so many things are digital now and we also aren’t kids. There are so many fads as kids that picking out which one will stick is difficult and will always be.
My nieces…nephew…all my friends have kids and the big thing nowadays is to monitor their time on the internet or youtube. It’s quite different then my days of hanging out outside and playing with cards.
I largely agree with this perspective. I think what you’re getting at is something very important with collectibles – things that are, from the outset, treated as investments rarely become collectible. There’s a reason why the early Magic sets (principally ABU, Legends, Antiquities, and Arabian Nights) are highly desirable as collectibles whereas almost every MTG set after is not considered collectible by most: people did not view early MTG cards as assets that would appreciate. Many people (from what I’ve heard) literally threw away Alpha cards at GenCon 1993. The cards were viewed as mere game pieces by many, and even the people who were more into collecting had no choice but to play with the cards unsleeved if they wanted to play with them at all. As it became clear that MTG would remain a fixture of gaming for years to come, people realized the benefit of preserving cards (not to mention that the print runs increased dramatically with Revised – while Legends was technically released after Revised, it was in print for a much shorter time). Here’s the gist: when there’s market saturation of perfectly preserved copies of something (see Fallen Empires or Chronicles), there’s very little room for that thing to appreciate. While there are a few other factors at play that lead to this being the case (namely that Fallen Empires had very few good cards), there is a reason why a complete set of Fallen Empires in mint condition is worth in the vicinity of $40 and a complete set of Legends in mint condition is worth in the $7-$10k+ – and the reason for the price difference certainly isn’t their respective dates of release (they were released the same year). And it can’t be entirely accounted for by the difference in power level between the two sets. The primary reason is that there are just way, way fewer NM/M Legends cards out there.
This was a bit of a tangent, but basically what I’m saying is that: the more copies of something persist in collectible condition (NM-M), the less collectible it is. That’s why no one gives a shit about modern PSA 10 cards – there is an endless supply of pack fresh copies. The same cannot be said about WotC and EX-era cards. And this is why Funko Pops will fail as a collectible (along with the fact that the demand is mostly inorganic): everyone and their mom is keeping them sealed and/or perfectly preserved. So I don’t think it’s impossible for a new collectible to emerge, but it would require a set of circumstances that is certainly made less likely by the existence of the internet, proper preservation methods, and knowledge of the price trajectory of collectibles such as MTG and Pokemon.
This actually resonates with me pretty hard when I got to thinking about it. There were so many rapid changes in such a short period of time with regards to technology in my childhood that thinking back to the time when Pokémon cards were just coming out was such a different every day experience compared to just 5-10 years later. Most kids went from minimal electronics to desktop pc games, gameboy color or playing games on miniclip and addictinggames, getting their first iPod mini in middle school and downloading stuff off of limewire and definitely getting a bunch of viruses, getting a flip cell phone and texting on the keyboard where you would have to hit the number multiple times just to type a single letter, experiencing the beginning of the touch screen era and getting an iPod touch and playing games like doodle jump and also getting their first smart phone, to now having phones that are more capable than the first computer we used as a kid. The significance of the changes in technology and how they affected day to day life for so many people is pretty astounding. When I see my cards I think back to all those times and think for a lot of people that’s really what it’s all about.
I was talking with someone today about exactly this. All these new toys/collectibles are getting purchased immediately with the perspective that they might be valuable in the future so there is a huge supply of sealed product just being stored. There won’t be any scarcity
Appreciate your reply but it’s not that at all. My thoughts were about the likelihood of new crazes forming organically - in a similar way to pokemon - and how I believe this will be a much rarer event in the future if and when it happens, due to the Internet age and everyone’s proclivity to try to ‘spot the next big thing’. I don’t believe there will *never* be another new collectible craze, simply because no matter how much of our lives turn digital you can never replace the satisfaction of having something tangible and physical to hold, whether that’s a piece of art or craftsmanship.
I think collectible markets will keep popping up as they always have through human history.
The internet may slightly impact physical collectibles, but it won’t prevent new ones from forming. Even if kids within 3-4 generations live a completely digital life, they will still be able to hold digital collections in their equivalent of pokemon go, fortnite, cryptokitties, etc. Some of my younger friends get as excited talking about their fortnite or WoW collections as I do talking about pokemon.
I do agree that funkos are a strange one to understand due to the fact that people don’t play with them, but even they can’t be discounted as a collectible. I see loads of kids buying funko on weekend mornings acompanied by mom and dad, just the same as we did with MTG and Pokemon. That anticipation of the day when we could go to the card shop and buy new booster packs to open, or new cards for our collection is what creates nostalgia, not the fact that is is playable or not.
Now, if you are referring to collectible markets that people can sell for millions in the future, then it is of course more limited but financial value and nostalgic value are two different things. The term ‘secondary market’ means exactly that the financial aspects of a collectible are secondary to its main purpose.
My mom who is almost 70 collects Stamps, Postcards, Coins and Notes, some of which she used to buy at a bookstore when she was young and were kept sealed in mint condition (just like Funko these days), I collect Pokemon and MTG which I mistreated in the playgrounds, and my children will surely collect something else, and wether it will be in physical or digital format, whether it will be sealed in original package or completely beat up from usage, the driving force behind it will not be financial expectation or usefulness of the items in question, but rather the feeling of nostalgia.
I find it interesting to think about. I think many people will criticize this kind of question because it’s not romantic and often people view collectibles as sacred. And hey, they’re not wrong. But also hey, yours is still a question, and an interesting thought, and I don’t think we should be afraid to talk about it.
Honestly, as silly as this may sound, but I use myself and my own emotions as a (loose) guide. I’d never suggest anyone take that as investment advice – and I also know that’s not what you’re asking. But for example: I was so excited about Shining Legends, GX Ultra Shiny & Hidden Fates. I’m still as much of a human as anyone else, and the cool shiny art paired with everyone else’s excitement really got me into it. I couldn’t decide if I wanted to open it or keep it. And here’s the thing: I’m an adult, so I HAVE the “keep it” impulse. You think there weren’t adults who had the same feeling when Pokemon was being borne? Hello, Gary.
But the point is: I knew I valued it from the get-go, even as an adult who semi views these as investments. I felt that way, AND I was excited about the art, the Elite Trainer Box looks damn good, it’s all just super cool. They were significant departures in modern Pokemon cards, and had something TO get excited about. Some of these new sets I’m meh on. But when I see stuff I like, I still know it, I still feel it. And that’s when I decide to enjoy some and keep some.
Interesting phenomenon if true considering things like Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and Erikson’s psychosocial development stages. Does my nostalgia collection stem from something that is necessarily a ‘psychological negative’? No offense to any of you lol. I’m new and I love it here.
This is what Pokemon Go was supposed to be. No offense to Pokemon Go fans, but see Pokemon Go as squandered potential, although, yes, to many, Pokemon Go was/is largely a success. I believe there will be a virtual collecting game that will do it right one day, and gamers will be PayPaling tens of thousands for that game’s version of legendary Pokemon (that only they were the lucky/engaged enough to obtain) to be a contenders in tournaments. Any game dev/coders out there who want to make something truly special hmu haha.
Yea, this is a good shout. I can speak only from personal experience. I played a lot of Counter Strike Global Offensive. The game developer, Valve, introduced tradable weapon skins in 2013. You can get those skins from cases, which are an in game drop. Obviously there are some really rare items, the knives, which can fetch you multiple thousand dollars based on condition and float. Both condition and float are randomly selected when you retrieve the weapon skin from the case. They even have different case collections and a lot of them are ‘out of print’ and won’t come back. The items in those case are only rising (so far). Same with these cases that don’t drop anymore. Similar to older boosters. CS:GO is widely popular and has a ton of people playing the game while catering to a lot of people. If a game managed to replicate CS:GO’s success while catering to the right audience and if that game also introduced some kind of in-game tradable, collectible items with limited numbers, I’m sure we would see another in-game economy rise.