Hey guys, shortly after I posted my Breakdown: All 975,662 of PSA’s 1,000,000 Pokémon Cards thread I had the idea that it’d be cool to put together some sort of end of year report to give insight into what cards and sets people are grading. Of course initially this report will be pretty basic as I’m not able to access back-dated data, but I’m hoping that with time I’ll be able to provide you lot with quarterly or bi-annual metrics.
As a disclaimer this is not affiliated with PSA in any way and is entirely unofficial. I’ve been able to put this together using the data PSA makes public as part of their PSA Population Report. I’m not covering the data they provide in their Auction Prices Realised pages as they still only cover data from the eBay.com website and do not take any other eBay region (or any other auction site for that matter) into consideration.
I’ve made the decision not to include PSA/DNA Certified entries as the data on these isn’t representative of the cards or sets they cover. In short this means that autographed cards are not included in the below data.
Using my previous thread, I can already reveal an example of the sort of metric I’d like to provide in future: Set Growth. Since my previous thread was posted at the end of October, the number of Base Set cards graded has increased by 4,975 from 164,256 to 169,231 - that’s an average of just under 86 cards per day.
Note: As PSA grades more than just Pokémon cards, I’ll be referring to the content which makes up each set as “entries” instead of “cards” (Pokémon Coins for example are not cards).
Preface
Before getting into details I’d like to please ask for suggestions of what data you’d like to see from this in future and criticism of the below data. I have asked a few questions on the E4 Discord, but for the most part the restrictions I’ve applied to the data are all what I felt were good enough for the occasion. I’ve tried my hardest to be completely impartial, but the limitations I’ve applied may have lead to certain cards or sets being favoured over others - if this is noticeable anywhere please do let me know and I’ll try to rectify it to make the data as fair as possible.
I’ve not thoroughly proof-read this so please forgive me for any typos or otherwise confusing statements where editing has gone wrong. I’ve left my observations of the data below, but please do not use what I’ve written as gospel - this data is entirely down to you own interpretation of it.
**Can I access the data or code used to generate the data?**For now I’m keeping the data to myself as it’s not in a format that I can easily share. With regard to the code, what I’ve written so far is very messy and could do with commentary. I wanted to get the data ready before the end of the year so prioritised speed over quality. I’m thinking on publishing the code in a dedicated GitHub repo in the near future.
Known Issues
- PSA does not apply gender symbols or labels to Nidoran cards. All Nidoran♀ and Nidoran♂ cards have had to be categorised under one ‘Nidoran’ heading without gender separation.
- Flabébé is listed as “Flabebe”, so any references to Flabébé will not include the accented characters.
Without further ado, let’s get on with the data…
The data used for the figures below was collected at 2PM (GMT) on December 27th 2019.
At this time there were 745 Pokémon-related sets containing 1,051,528 entries.
Set Popularity
PSA currently recognises 745 different Pokémon-related sets, primarily consisting of Pokémon Cards but also including Foil Packs, Coins, non-TCG cards and recently Action Flipz and board game spares.
What is the most popular set?
This dataset uses the number of graded entries in a set to determine the set’s overall popularity (that is to say if a set has 100 graded cards in total, it’s popularity score is 100):
Unsurprisingly Base Set dominates, however this data is a bit iffy: PSA’s Neo Destiny set, for example, which just makes #10 consists of both 1st Edition and Unlimited entries in the one set, whereas PSA separates sets like Neo Genesis (which doesn’t make this list) into two different sets. The notable large culprit of this is Pokemon Game (or Base Set to you and I) which includes 1st Edition, Shadowless, Unlimited and both Trainer Deck A and B. Perhaps a better metric would be to look at which set has the highest number of graded cards per number of cards available in the set…
What is the most popular set averaged by the number of entries it contains?
This dataset divides the total number of graded entries per set by the number of entries contained in that set (that is to say if a set has 100 entries graded and is made up of 10 entries, it’s popularity score would be 10 (100/10)):
Categorising the data like this we see the 1998-99 Pokemon Japanese CD Promo - a set with only 9 entries that have been graded over 43,000 times combined - greatly overshadowing all the others and making up almost half of the entire top 10. But this still has the problem of PSA’s sets being messy and disorganised. A better idea would be to split each set into smaller sets based on the variant each card has, so I’ve done just that. As an attempted catch-all, I’ve used the following variants: 1st Edition, Shadowless, Trainer Deck A, Trainer Deck B, Blue Back, Blue Back (Unnumbered) and Green Back. Everything else is thrown into an Unlimited category. This brings the total number of sets from 745 to 868…
What is the most popular set after introducing logical set variants?
This dataset uses the number of graded entries in a set to determine the set’s overall popularity after the sets have been split out into their release variants (that is to say if a set has 100 graded cards in total, it’s popularity score is 100, but 1st Edition and Unlimited variants are no longer contained within the same set):
That’s a lot more meaningful. 1st Edition Base Set is the most popular as I’m sure we all assumed, but I’m quite surprised to see Unlimited Base Set having almost double the popularity as Shadowless.
How do these compare to the 858 other sets?
Card Popularity
27,837 Pokémon cards are included across the 745 Pokémon-related sets PSA grades.
What is the most popular card?
This dataset uses the number of total grades per entry to determine the entry’s overall popularity (that is to say if an entry has had 100 total submissions, its popularity score is 100):
How do these compare to the 980,170 other cards?
This means that there has been 1 unlimited Base Set Charizard graded for every 100 Pokémon entries submitted to PSA.
Pokémon Popularity
The 745 different Pokémon sets PSA covers comprise of 23,558 entries which mention a Pokémon by name in its title (i.e. Charizard from the Pokémon Game set counts as a single Charizard entry, whereas cards like Charizard & Reshiram from the recent Double Blaze set count as an entry for both Charizard and Reshiram). This excludes entries like my own favourite trainer card, the HeartGold & SoulSilver Pokémon Collector, as that card does not feature a named Pokémon in its title.
Who is the most popular Pokémon?
Data in this section includes any entry which features a named Pokémon in its title as mentioned above. Every entry which mentions a Pokémon by name increases that Pokémon’s score by the number of times that particular entry has been graded (that is to say if 3 sets feature an entry named Mareep and those 3 entries have been graded a combined 100 times, Mareep’s score would be 1,000):
Almost as many entries featuring Mew in the name have been graded as often as everyone’s favourite mouse Pokémon, Pichu Pikachu. That definitely surprised me, however it was no surprise at all to see Charizard take the #1 spot. Perhaps though a better metric would be to consider the number of releases a Pokémon has been part of. After all, perhaps the only reason Pikachu makes the top 10 to begin with is because 702 different entries mention Pikachu by name…
Who is the most popular Pokémon averaged by the number of releases?
This dataset divides the total number of graded entries per Pokémon by the number of entries that Pokémon has in total (that is to say if a Pokémon has been graded 100 times but has been part of 4 different releases, the overall score for that Pokémon would be 25 (100/4)):
Pikachu is now nowhere to be seen on the top 10 and the top 3 can be revealed as Charizard, Venusaur and Blastoise. Did you expect Venusaur to have a bigger share of the cake than Blastoise?
Factoring in all other Pokémon reveals the impact each of those 10 have on the larger set:
Have any Pokémon not been graded yet?
This dataset includes only Pokémon which have never been graded by PSA. I’ve excluded the 81 new Pokémon introduced by Sword & Shield as this expansion has only just been released and thus some Pokémon haven’t even been introduced into the TCG yet, let alone PSA having any time to grade any of them.
For reference: Sets Present shows the number of sets the card belongs to and First Appeared shows when the Pokémon first appeared as a card in the TCG. These are ordered by the date they first appeared.
| Pokémon | Sets Present | First Appeared |
| Kricketune | 12 | 2nd March 2007 |
| Swanna | 14 | 17th December 2010 |
| Gurdurr | 11 | ‘’ |
| Sawsbuck | 6 | ‘’ |
| Frillish | 11 | 15th July 2011 |
| Mienshao | 8 | ‘’ |
For additional data, the following Pokémon have been graded…
- Once: Budew, Carracosta, Deerling, Dewott, Elgyem, Golett, Jellicent, Palpitoad, Swadloon, Swoobat, Throh and Tirtouga;
- Twice: Accelgor, Archen, Basculin, Comfey, Crustle, Cryogonal, Cubchoo, Deino, Drilbur, Ferroseed, Foongus, Kricketot, Mantyke, Munna, Musharna, Pignite, Quilladin, Sewaddle, Starly, Timburr and Tympole;
- Three times: Aromatisse, Conkeldurr, Duosion, Dwebble, Finneon, Mienfoo, Rufflet, Solosis, Spritzee, Vanillish and Yamask.
Set Grading Difficulty
By far the most interesting metric in my opinion is grading difficulty. I’ve defined grading difficulty as the difference between the number of PSA 10 grades vs. PSA 9 grades, PSA 9 grades with qualifiers and PSA 8.5 grades. That is to say that this set of data makes the assumption that cards with these grades were submitted as somewhat ‘pack fresh’ and with the hope of obtaining PSA 10s. Of course this isn’t perfect as I’ve personally submitted cards I had judged to be PSA 9 myself beforehand, but this I think should give enough of an overview of what the most difficult or most easy sets to grade are.
What are the most difficult sets to grade?
This dataset reveals the sets which are overall most difficult to score PSA 10 grades on (that is to say, most entry submissions will result in a PSA 8.5, 9 or 9Q instead of a 10):
This set is all well and good, but I don’t think it’s very useful to the majority. Rather than looking at every set, I’m instead going to focus on only the main set releases:
For the most part I think this set is skewed by older releases which PSA likely didn’t originally grade. Expanding the list a little shows English sets from 2009 to 2012 make up a big chunk of the top 50.
What are the least difficult sets to grade?
We’ve seen the hardest sets to grade, but what about the easiest? This dataset reveals the sets which are overall least difficult to score PSA 10 grades on (that is to say, most entry submissions will result in a PSA 10 instead of a PSA 9Q, 9 or 8.5):
If anyone was on the fence about Japanese sets being of higher quality than English sets, this is definitely irrefutable proof. Japanese sets make up 276 of the top 300 easiest to grade, with the first main English set in at position #257!
Here is what the dataset looks like if only non-Japanese main sets are included:
I can only hope that where all of the English entries are from Sun & Moon it means English set quality is increasing, but I imagine it’s more to do with the current availability of booster packs for these sets leading to a lot more ‘pack-fresh’ submissions.
How difficult are the most popular sets to grade?
This dataset looks at the most popular sets (with their logical set variants revealed above) to reveal the difficulty level of each of those:
Individual Entry Grading Difficulty
As with the Set Grading Difficulty above, I’ve defined grading difficulty as the difference between the number of PSA 10 grades vs. PSA 9 grades, PSA 9 grades with qualifiers and PSA 8.5 grades. Unlike sets however, this data is split into three confidence tiers:
- Low Confidence - These are entries which have a sample size of between 50 and 199. If the sample size is exactly 50, 1 new entry would offset the data by 2%.
- Medium Confidence - These are entries which have a sample size of between 200 and 499. If the sample size is exactly 200, 1 new entry would offset the data by 0.5%.
- High Confidence - These are entries which have a sample size of at least 500. If the sample size is exactly 500, 1 new entry would offset the data by 0.2%.
Cards at the top of the Low Confidence tier are volatile, meaning they are very susceptible to change (change being either an increase or decrease in grading difficulty), whereas the cards at the top of the High Confidence tier are stable, meaning it would take a for them to change.
Note: A difficulty of 100% or 0% does not mean it is impossible to grade (or not grade) a PSA 10, it simply means that of the sample size provided no cards have yet received that grade.
What are the most difficult cards to grade?
Low Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of between 50 and 199. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 90% or greater.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Chansey-Holo 70Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 100%(69) |
| MoriokaPokemon Japanese Trainer Promo Lucky Stadium (Unlimited, 2000) | 100%(66) |
| Magneton-Holo 38Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 100%(54) |
| Dark Magneton-Holo 11Pokemon Rocket (Unlimited, 2000) | 98.7013%(77) |
| Raichu-Holo 36Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 98.5915%(71) |
| Slowking-Holo 14Pokemon Neo Genesis (Unlimited, 2000) | 98.4848%(66) |
| Hitmonchan-Holo 62Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 98.2759%(58) |
| Dark Persian-Holo 17 (Nintendo Mag.-No 60 HP)Pokemon Game Promo (Unlimited, 2000) | 98.2143%(56) |
| Machamp-Holo 59Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 97.2222%(72) |
| Heracross-Holo 6Pokemon Neo Genesis (Unlimited, 2000) | 96.7213%(61) |
| Full Art/Yveltal EX-Holo 144Pokemon XY (Unlimited, 2014) | 96.6387%(119) |
| Full Art/Emolga EX-Holo 143Pokemon XY (Unlimited, 2014) | 94.9153%(59) |
| Slowking-Holo 14Pokemon Neo Genesis 1st Edition (2000) | 94.6809%(188) |
| Blissey-Holo 2Pokemon Neo Revelation 1st Edition (2001) | 94.6667%(150) |
| Nidoking-Holo 45Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 94.6429%(56) |
| Wigglytuff-Holo 19 (Base II)Pokemon Game Base II (Unlimited, 2000) | 94.4882%(127) |
| Full Art/Skarmory EX-Holo 145Pokemon XY (Unlimited, 2014) | 94.2857%(70) |
| Ampharos-Holo 1Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 94.2623%(122) |
| Mewtwo-Holo 51 (Prerelease-Staff)Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 94.2529%(87) |
| Charizard-Holo 3Pokemon Legendary Collection (Unlimited, 2002) | 93.9086%(197) |
| Meganium-Holo 10Pokemon Neo Genesis (Unlimited, 2000) | 93.8462%(65) |
| Typhlosion-Holo 17Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 93.75%(144) |
| Magneton-Holo 9 (1st Edition)Pokemon German (1st Edition, 1999) | 93.4783%(138) |
| Hitmontop-Holo 3Pokemon Neo Discovery (Unlimited, 2001) | 93.4066%(91) |
| Entei-Holo 6Pokemon Neo Revelation (Unlimited, 2001) | 93.3884%(121) |
| Lugia-Holo 9Pokemon Neo Genesis (Unlimited, 2000) | 93.3333%(165) |
| Dark Raichu-Holo 7Pokemon Legendary Collection (Unlimited, 2002) | 93.1818%(88) |
| Feraligatr-Holo 5Pokemon Neo Genesis (Unlimited, 2000) | 93.1034%(58) |
| Charizard-Holo 4 (1st Edition-Korean)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 2000) | 93.0556%(72) |
| Dark Blastoise-Holo 4Pokemon Legendary Collection (Unlimited, 2002) | 92.9412%(85) |
| Ninetales-Holo 15Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 92.8571%(70) |
| Full Art/Xerneas EX-Holo 146Pokemon XY (Unlimited, 2014) | 92.7928%(111) |
| Gyarados-Holo 34 (Prerelease-Staff)Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 92.7273%(55) |
| Hitmonlee-Holo 7Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 92.7083%(192) |
| Bianca-Holo 147Pokemon Black & White Boundaries Crossed (Unlimited, 2012) | 92.4242%(66) |
| Misdreavus-Holo 11Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 92.3077%(169) |
| Meganium-Holo 10Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 92.2156%(167) |
| Full Art/Blastoise EX-Holo 142Pokemon XY (Unlimited, 2014) | 92.1466%(191) |
| Suicune-Holo 14Pokemon Neo Revelation (Unlimited, 2001) | 92.126%(127) |
| Machomei-Holo 8 (1st Edition)Pokemon German (1st Edition, 1999) | 91.9355%(124) |
| Wobbuffet-Holo 16Pokemon Neo Discovery (Unlimited, 2001) | 91.9355%(62) |
| Zoroark-Holo 102Pokemon Black & White Next Destinies (Unlimited, 2012) | 91.9192%(99) |
| Yanma-Holo 17 (1st Edition)Pokemon Neo Discovery (1st Edition, 2001) | 91.9118%(136) |
| Misdreavus-Holo 11Pokemon Neo Revelation (Unlimited, 2001) | 91.8033%(61) |
| Skarmory-Holo 27Pokemon Expedition (Unlimited, 2002) | 91.7808%(73) |
| Giratina LV.X-Holo 124Pokemon Platinum (Unlimited, 2009) | 91.6667%(84) |
| Full Art/Lugia EX-Holo 134Pokemon Black & White Plasma Storm (Unlimited, 2012) | 91.5033%(153) |
| Latios EX-Holo 86Pokemon Black & White Plasma Freeze (Unlimited, 2013) | 91.4286%(70) |
| Clefable-Holo 5 (Base II)Pokemon Game Base II (Unlimited, 2000) | 91.2162%(148) |
| Raikou-Holo 13Pokemon Neo Revelation (Unlimited, 2001) | 91.2%(125) |
Medium Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of between 200 and 499. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 85% or greater.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Venusaur-Holo 13Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 97.561%(205) |
| Eevee-Holo 11Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 97.2973%(259) |
| Kangaskhan-Holo 5Pokemon Jungle (Unlimited, 1999) | 94.2857%(245) |
| Heracross-Holo 6Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 93.2127%(221) |
| Mew-Holo 53Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 91.7391%(230) |
| Dark Raichu-Holo 83Pokemon Rocket (Unlimited, 2000) | 91.7012%(241) |
| Raichu-Holo 14 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 90.7834%(217) |
| Dark Magneton-Holo 11 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 90.4661%(472) |
| Suicune-Holo 14Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 89.8551%(276) |
| Blastoise-Holo 2 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 89.75%(400) |
| Houndoom-Holo 8Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 89.5161%(248) |
| Alakazam-Holo 1 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 89.4928%(276) |
| Dragonite-Holo 4Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 89.4879%(371) |
| Raikou-Holo 13Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 89.4737%(266) |
| Blastoise-Holo 2 (Base II)Pokemon Game Base II (Unlimited, 2000) | 89.4587%(351) |
| Pichu-Holo 12Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 89.3519%(216) |
| Vaporeon-Holo 12Pokemon Jungle (Unlimited, 1999) | 89.2523%(214) |
| Lapras-Holo 10Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 89.0323%(310) |
| Ninetales-Holo 12 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 88.9197%(361) |
| Entei-Holo 6Pokemon Neo Revelation (1st Edition, 2001) | 88.6179%(246) |
| Azumarill-Holo 2Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 88.4%(250) |
| Chansey-Holo 3 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 88.3838%(396) |
| Poliwrath-Holo 13 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 88.253%(332) |
| Nidoking-Holo 11 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 88.0878%(319) |
| Gyarados-Holo 6 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 87.6923%(455) |
| Lugia-Holo 9Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 87.6923%(325) |
| Blastoise 137Pokemon Black & White Plasma Storm (Unlimited, 2012) | 87.6877%(333) |
| Jumpluff-Holo 7Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 87.3913%(230) |
| Kabutops-Holo 9Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 87.3518%(253) |
| Shining Magikarp-Holo 66Pokemon Neo Revelation (Unlimited, 2001) | 87.2123%(391) |
| Mew-Glossy 151 (CD Promo)Pokemon Japanese CD Promo (Unlimited, 1998-99) | 86.9718%(284) |
| Skarmory-Holo 13Pokemon Neo Genesis (1st Edition, 2000) | 86.8132%(273) |
| Gengar-Holo 5Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 86.747%(249) |
| Hitmonchan-Holo 7 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 86.5248%(282) |
| Raichu-Holo 14Pokemon Fossil (Unlimited, 1999) | 86.3071%(241) |
| Clefable-Holo 1 (1st Edition)Pokemon Jungle (1st Edition, 1999) | 86.27%(437) |
| Misty’s Golduck 12 (Holo-1st Edition)Pokemon Gym Challenge (1st Edition, 2000) | 86.2275%(334) |
| Kangaskhan-Holo 5 (1st Edition)Pokemon Jungle (1st Edition, 1999) | 85.8427%(445) |
| Charizard-Holo 6Pokemon Expedition (Unlimited, 2002) | 85.7741%(239) |
| Vaporeon-Holo 12 (1st Edition)Pokemon Jungle (1st Edition, 1999) | 85.7471%(435) |
| Glurak-Holo 4 (1st Edition)Pokemon German (1st Edition, 1999) | 85.7143%(322) |
| Magneton-Holo 9 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 85.4545%(330) |
| Charizard-Holo 11 (Prerelease-Staff)Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 85.3755%(253) |
| Flareon-Holo 3Pokemon Jungle (Unlimited, 1999) | 85.3503%(314) |
| Full Art/Zekrom 115Pokemon Black & White Legendary Treasures (Unlimited, 2013) | 85.2018%(223) |
| Charizard-Holo 11 (Prerelease)Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 85.2008%(473) |
| Rainbow Energy-Holo 17 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 85.1852%(486) |
| Charizard-Holo 103Pokemon Diamond & Pearl Stormfront (Unlimited, 2008) | 85.1449%(276) |
High Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of 500 or more. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 75% or greater.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Charizard-Holo 11Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 94.9516%(2892) |
| Aerodactyl-Holo 1 (1st Edition-Prerelease)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 92.0696%(517) |
| Misty’s Seadra 9 (Holo-Prerelease)Pokemon Gym Heroes (Unlimited, 2000) | 91.6006%(631) |
| Charizard-Holo 4Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 91.3098%(4787) |
| Charizard-Holo 4 (Shadowless)Pokemon Game (Shadowless, 1999) | 91.2685%(607) |
| Charizard-Holo 4 (Base II)Pokemon Game Base II (Unlimited, 2000) | 91.1972%(568) |
| Machamp-Holo 8 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 89.1312%(3027) |
| Birthday Pikachu-Holo 24Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2001) | 87.3434%(798) |
| Charizard 136Pokemon Black & White Plasma Storm (Unlimited, 2012) | 87.1609%(553) |
| Lapras-Holo 10 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 86.6573%(712) |
| Clefairy-Holo 5Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 85.9705%(948) |
| Magneton-Holo 9Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 85.6578%(1011) |
| Chansey-Holo 3Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 85.5353%(878) |
| Charizard-Holo 4 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 84.7522%(787) |
| Articuno-Holo 2 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 84.2581%(775) |
| Blastoise-Holo 2Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 84.1769%(1877) |
| Blastoise-Holo 2 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 83.3904%(584) |
| Dark Charizard-Holo 4Pokemon Rocket (Unlimited, 2000) | 83.0645%(620) |
| Hitmonchan-Holo 7Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 82.4268%(956) |
| Mew-Holo 9Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 82.3163%(803) |
| Gengar-Holo 5 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 82.1026%(799) |
| Dark Dugtrio-Holo 6 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 81.7447%(619) |
| Dark Dragonite-Holo 5 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 81.6705%(862) |
| Dark Blastoise-Holo 3 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 81.3785%(827) |
| Raichu-Holo 14 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 81.3656%(703) |
| Raichu-Holo 14Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 80.7547%(1060) |
| Dark Raichu-Holo 83 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 80.0429%(932) |
| Venusaur-Holo 15Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 79.509%(1996) |
| Wartortle 42 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 79.4059%(505) |
| Blaine’s Charizard 2 (Holo)Pokemon Gym Challenge (Unlimited, 2000) | 79.0566%(530) |
| Dragonite-Holo 4 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 78.8546%(908) |
| Hitmonlee-Holo 7 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 78.6765%(680) |
| Cyndaquil 155Pokemon Japanese Neo (Unlimited, 1999) | 78.5877%(1317) |
| Dark Vileplume-Holo 13 (1st Edition)Pokemon Rocket (1st Edition, 2000) | 78.2609%(644) |
| Jolteon-Holo 4 (1st Edition)Pokemon Jungle (1st Edition, 1999) | 78.1982%(555) |
| Full Art/Charizard EX 100 (Holo)Pokemon XY Flashfire (Unlimited, 2014) | 78.1915%(752) |
| Aerodactyl-Holo 1 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 77.5726%(758) |
| Zapdos-Holo 16 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 77.5547%(548) |
| Venusaur-Holo 15 (1st Edition)Pokemon Game (1st Edition, 1999) | 77.4744%(586) |
| Ninetales-Holo 12Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 77.3268%(1429) |
| Nidoking-Holo 11Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 77.231%(1199) |
| Totodile 158Pokemon Japanese Neo (Unlimited, 1999) | 76.9288%(1335) |
| Mewtwo-Holo 10Pokemon Game (Unlimited, 1999) | 76.3306%(1597) |
| Kabutops-Holo 9 (1st Edition)Pokemon Fossil (1st Edition, 1999) | 76.0274%(730) |
What are the least difficult cards to grade?
Low Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of between 50 and 199. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 5% or lower.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Full Art/M Venusaur EX 89 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 0%(72) |
| Full Art/M Blastoise EX 93 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 0%(72) |
| Full Art/Pidgeot EX 96 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 0%(53) |
| Full Art/Sylveon EX 26 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese XY Pokekyun Collection (1st Edition, 2016) | 0%(52) |
| HO-Oh GX 12Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon to Have Seen the Battle Rainbow (Unlimited, 2017) | 0%(51) |
| Full Art/M Charizard EX 91 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 0.5102%(196) |
| M Charizard EX 11Pokemon Japanese Starter Pack (Unlimited, 2016) | 0.7937%(126) |
| Full Art/Mewtwo EX-Holo XY-P (Battle Festa)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 0.8929%(112) |
| Charizard EX 10Pokemon Japanese Starter Pack (Unlimited, 2016) | 0.9009%(111) |
| Blastoise & Piplup GX 16Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Remix Bout (Unlimited, 2019) | 1.1111%(90) |
| Pikachu 206 (Mega Charizard X /Y-Pokemon Center)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 1.1429%(175) |
| Full Art/Dragonite EX 98 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.2048%(83) |
| Full Art/Mewtwo EX 95 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.3889%(72) |
| Rayquaza 100 (Illust. Collection)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2014) | 1.5625%(64) |
| Zapdos-Holo 40 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.5789%(190) |
| Full Art/Venusaur EX 88 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.6129%(124) |
| Full Art/Gyarados GX-Hyper 56Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Ultradimensional Beasts (Unlimited, 2017) | 1.6667%(60) |
| M Rayquaza EX 62 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese XY Emerald Break (1st Edition, 2015) | 1.8182%(55) |
| Full Art/Piplup 52Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Dream League (Unlimited, 2019) | 1.8868%(53) |
| Cosmog 081 (Lillie & Cosmog Special Box)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 1.9231%(52) |
| Full Art/Pikachu 54Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Dream League (Unlimited, 2019) | 2.1978%(182) |
| Pikachu-Holo XY-P (Battle Festa)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 2.2989%(87) |
| Ash’s Pikachu 075 (Get Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 2.439%(82) |
| M Venusaur EX-Holo 2 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 2.5641%(78) |
| Poliwrath-Holo 25 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 2.6846%(149) |
| Venusaur & Snivy GX 1Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Remix Bout (Unlimited, 2019) | 2.7027%(74) |
| M Charizard EX-Holo 88 (1st Edition-Ultra Rare)Pokemon Japanese XY Wild Blaze (1st Edition, 2014) | 2.7397%(146) |
| Raichu GX 30Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 3.0303%(66) |
| Charizard EX-Holo 12 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 3.252%(123) |
| Full Art/Misty’s Determination 99 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 3.2609%(92) |
| Ash’s Pikachu 073 (Get Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 3.3708%(89) |
| Umbreon GX 125 (Champion’s League Yokohama 2018)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 3.3898%(59) |
| Moltres-Holo 43 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Web (1st Edition, 2001) | 3.5714%(56) |
| Ash’s Pikachu 076 (Get Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 3.6585%(82) |
| Umbreon GX 37Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Collection Moon (Unlimited, 2016) | 3.7037%(54) |
| M Charizard EX-Holo 13 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 3.7634%(186) |
| Pikachu 33 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 3.7736%(53) |
| Charizard GX 7Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Detective Pikachu (Unlimited, 2019) | 3.8462%(52) |
| Full Art/Charizard & Braixen GX 68Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Remix Bout (Unlimited, 2019) | 4%(75) |
| Pikachu 179 (Pokemon Card Friendly Shop)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 4%(50) |
| Mewtwo-Holo 36Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Double Blaze (Unlimited, 2019) | 4%(50) |
| Pikachu 242 (7-11 Pikachu 2018 Special Set)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2018) | 4.0541%(74) |
| Pikachu 068 (Champion’s League)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 4.2017%(119) |
| Charizard & Braixen GX 8Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Remix Bout (Unlimited, 2019) | 4.2254%(142) |
| Mewtwo GX 40Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 4.2254%(71) |
| Full Art/Clefairy 381 (Dream League Booster Box)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2019) | 4.3478%(138) |
| Pikachu-Holo 108 (Pokemon Card Gym Summer Festa 2017)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 4.3478%(92) |
| Full Art/Eevee & Snorlax GX 297 (Tag Bolt Booster Box Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2018) | 4.3956%(91) |
| Full Art/Articuno GX 214Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Ultra Shiny GX (Unlimited, 2018) | 4.4776%(67) |
| Full Art/Tapu Bulu GX 244Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Ultra Shiny GX (Unlimited, 2018) | 4.4776%(67) |
| Dragonite EX-Holo 70 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 4.5455%(88) |
| Ash’s Pikachu GX 5 (Ash)Pokemon Japanese Ash vs. Team Rocket Deck Kit (Unlimited, 2017) | 4.6784%(171) |
| Ninetales-Holo 15 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 4.7904%(167) |
| M Charizard EX-Holo 002Pokemon Japanese M Charizard EX Mega Battle (Unlimited, 2014) | 4.8544%(103) |
| Full Art/Mewtwo EX 65 (1st Edition-Secret Print)Pokemon Japanese XY Red Flash (1st Edition, 2015) | 4.918%(61) |
| Full Art/Shaymin EX 188Pokemon Japanese the Best of XY (Unlimited, 2017) | 4.9383%(81) |
| Ash’s Pikachu 072 (Get Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 5%(80) |
| Dragonair 017/T (Vol. 19)Pokemon Japanese Promo Trainers Magazine (Unlimited, 2002) | 5%(60) |
| Full Art/M Pidgeot EX 97 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 5%(60) |
| Full Art/Brock’s Grit 100 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 5%(60) |
Medium Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of between 200 and 499. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 10% or lower.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Poncho-Wearing Pikachu 208 (Mega Charizard Y Pikachu Special Box)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 1.1527%(347) |
| Mewtwo-Holo 49 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.1905%(252) |
| Gyarados-Holo 32 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 1.3453%(223) |
| Rayquaza EX-Holo 122Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2015) | 2.4096%(249) |
| Charizard GX 11Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon to Have Seen the Battle Rainbow (Unlimited, 2017) | 2.4631%(203) |
| Mewtwo GX-Holo 82Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 3.3816%(414) |
| Charizard & Reshiram GX 7Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Double Blaze (Unlimited, 2019) | 3.4965%(286) |
| M Charizard EX-Holo 55 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese XY Wild Blaze (1st Edition, 2014) | 3.6765%(272) |
| Pikachu 175 (Battle Festa)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2015) | 3.72801%(456) |
| Pikachu-Holo 279 (20th Anniversary Festa)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 3.7681%(345) |
| Full Art/Pikachu EX 94 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 3.8278%(209) |
| Charizard 3Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Dragon Storm (Unlimited, 2018) | 4.2802%(257) |
| Sapporo’s Pikachu 005 (Pokemon Center)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 4.6512%(215) |
| Shining Jirachi-Holo 43Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 5.2209%(249) |
| Moltres & Zapdos & Articuno GX 35Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Sky Legend (Unlimited, 2019) | 5.3922%(204) |
| Shining Arceus-Holo 59Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 5.4455%(202) |
| Shining Genesect-Holo 10Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 5.5046%(218) |
| Pikachu 90 (Battle Festa)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2014) | 5.6604%(477) |
| Mario Pikachu 293 (Holo-Mario Pikachu Special Box)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 5.7214%(402) |
| Pretend Magikarp Pikachu 150 (Holo)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2015) | 5.7269%(454) |
| Poncho-Wearing Pikachu 207 (Mega Charizard X Pikachu Special Box)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 5.848%(342) |
| Shining HO-Oh 083 (Shining Legends Booster Box)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 6.1008%(377) |
| M Gengar EX 79 (Pokemon Center)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2014) | 6.4516%(217) |
| Full Art/Raichu GX SM90 (Shining Legends Special Collection)Pokemon SM Black Star Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 6.5637%(259) |
| Full Art/Charizard GX-Hyper 58Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon to Have Seen the Battle Rainbow (Unlimited, 2017) | 6.8592%(277) |
| Shining Celebi-Holo 4Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 6.9231%(260) |
| Victory Medal 032 (2nd Place-Gym Challenge)Pokemon Japanese Promo (Unlimited, 2009) | 7.0093%(214) |
| Pretend Gyarados Pikachu 151 (Holo)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2015) | 7.5758%(462) |
| Luigi Pikachu 295 (Holo-Luigi Pikachu Special Box)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 7.8431%(408) |
| Shining Rayquaza-Holo 57Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 8.4084%(333) |
| Full Art/Rayquaza GX 240Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Ultra Shiny GX (Unlimited, 2018) | 8.5366%(246) |
| Tohoku’s Pikachu 088 (Pokemon Center Tohoku Reopening)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 8.6826%(334) |
| Pikachu 061 (Pokemon Card Festa)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2017) | 8.764%(445) |
| Mega Tokyo’s Pikachu 98Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2014) | 9.1463%(492) |
| Victory Medal 033 (1st Place-Gym Challenge)Pokemon Japanese Promo (Unlimited, 2009) | 9.2437%(238) |
| Shining Volcanion-Holo 28Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Strength Expansion Pack Shining Legends (Unlimited, 2017) | 9.3458%(214) |
| Pretend Grunt Pikachu 014 (Special Box Pretend Grunt Pikachu)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 9.3596%(203) |
| Charmander-Holo 004Pokemon Japanese McDonald’s (Unlimited, 2002) | 9.6525%(259) |
High Confidence
These are entries which have a sample size of 500 or more. The sample size can be found in brackets below the difficulty; the higher the sample size, the more reliable the data. For this set I’m only including cards with a difficulty of 25% or lower.
| Card | Difficulty |
| Red’s Pikachu 270 (Pokemon Center 20th Anniversary Campaign)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2018) | 3.8542%(1427) |
| Poncho-Wearing Pikachu 203 (Pikachu Mega Campaign)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2015) | 3.9841%(502) |
| Full Art/Charizard EX 276 (Pokemon Game Art Collection)Pokemon Japanese XY Promo (Unlimited, 2016) | 4.5177%(819) |
| Charizard-Holo 11 (1st Edition)Pokemon Japanese Expansion 20th Anniversary (1st Edition, 2016) | 8.8649%(2132) |
| Pikachu 288 (Munch: A Retrospective)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2018) | 10.3293%(668) |
| Rowlet 290 (Munch: A Retrospective)Pokemon Japanese SM Promo (Unlimited, 2018) | 12.601%(619) |
| Full Art/Charizard GX 209Pokemon Japanese Sun & Moon Ultra Shiny GX (Unlimited, 2018) | 13.1401%(1035) |
| Moltres 21Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 14.5706%(652) |
| Zapdos 23Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 14.5997%(637) |
| Articuno 22Pokemon Promo Black Star (Unlimited, 2000) | 17.236%(644) |
| Charizard GX-Holo SM195 (Detective Pikachu Charizard-GX)Pokemon SM Black Star Promo (Unlimited, 2019) | 18.3493%(1357) |
| Full Art/Charizard GX SV49Pokemon Sun & Moon Hidden Fates (Unlimited, 2019) | 22.2615%(566) |
| Full Art/M Charizard EX 101Pokemon XY Evolutions (Unlimited, 2016) | 22.6992%(2912) |
Conclusion
It appears to be far easier to find cards which consistently get awarded PSA 10 grades over cards which never receive them. This could be down to PSA lenience but is more likely that I imagine the majority of PSA 10s are pack fresh pulls which have been scrutinised before being submitted. There are definitely some cards which are appear to be in a vicious cycle of never receiving a PSA 10 at all.
