Pack Fresh Holo Conditions from 1st Ed Fossil

General
1

Was wondering how, on average, the quality of the print run for 1st ed fossil was. I know i have seen some things here and there about this set having problems with factory lines and silvering. I was thinking about opening packs to complete a psa 10 set. I enjoy opening packs, and grading the cards myself more then just buying them already graded, so thats why i want to go this route. just want to see how much of challenge this will be

2

Overall fossil and jungle have slivering issues. I’ve opened 4 boxes I can think of and about 50% were 9 with 10 being a strong minority.

2 Likes
3

yeah, i knew jungle was pretty bad silvering wise, i didnt know how close fossil was compared to jungle. Are the non holos in 10 range most of the time?

4

The time for this was 2-4 years ago. The boxes were selling for $300-$500 and there were some single PSA 10 holos that would pay for the box if you hit them. Expected value was highly positive and it made no sense.

These days you cannot do it without losing a lot of money. The expected value would be very negative. I’d say the average box could lose you anywhere from $500 per box to $1,000 per box depending on your luck. I mean if it is worth that premium to you go ahead. In my goal of opening one of every box I went into certain boxes knowing I would lose hundreds and it was still worth it to me. Part of that though is because of the several boxes of jungle and fossil I opened I used those profits to wipe away the other losses.

1 Like
5

Yeah i know im going to lose money on this, but for me its worth it too.

3 Likes
6

Right. As long as you realize it’s an overall losing proposition, but the enjoyment outweighs the expected value (ev) then go for it.
Just compare it to casino gambling. The expected value of every game there ranges from 55% to high 90%. That means, if you are playing a slot machine with a 75% return, every dollar you put in the machine keeps a quarter…long term. Why do the casinos attract customers in droves? Cause it’s fun and you just might win;)

7

I actually work on slot machines in a casino, so i know all about this haha. But yeah for me its the enjoyment of opening the packs and sending them off to get graded. Then opening the box from psa hoping for 10s haha

8

do you guys know if the foreign languages of fossil/jungle sets had the same issues with silvering?

9

Opened a lot of german fossil and jungle and yes, there is heavy silvering all over the place. It also seems that the factory cutting knives weren´t as sharp somehow, often times you get whitened edges/corners, but you can certainly tell that it´s like leftovers of the cutting process.

10

From what I have seen sets going from base to fossil have extremely low psa 10 rates, even from pack fresh cards.

I would expect that you may be able to get about 2 PSA 10’s per 12 holos.