Is the ultramodern chase premium justified?

Long story short, it’s a user obsessed with ā€œMoonbreon.ā€ They haven’t posted since February 13… :sob:

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I think the premium is justified. Doesnt mean they wont tank though. Doesnt mean they wont go higher either…

I think we are still living in a hype era.

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Thanks for the context, I just got off at the bus stop

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A modern card with over 10k+ PSA 10s and more PSA 10s then 9s that sells for over 1k makes no sense. Just because it has umbreon on the card. At this point it’s not even about the card. It’s hype, that I still can’t figure out. Can someone please explain to me what’s so special/important about the evolving skies umbreon?

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Oh buddy do I have a tale for you

Speculation and hype?

Long has it been assumed that Umbreon is the most popular eeveelution for card collectors and the card definitely stands on its own compared to the other eeveelution vmax cards. The hype started small and then it snowballed and now appears too big for any single entity to stop.

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Thank you for posting some background. My question then is, what is the end goal for your modern collecting? If you are collecting modern alt art 10s, the assumption is to sell it at a higher price down the line, as that’s what most people are doing as well.

If that’s not true, this is where I see psa 9s or cgc 10s being the best route as you can save 50-90%, get the same beautiful art on truly mint cards, and not have to worry about any crash when demand dries up for the cards with no scarcity or history.

My end goal is to collect every PSA 10 alt art and display them in my room to enjoy forever. Selling one of them is incomprehensible. I also don’t buy graded copies, that’s just throwing away money since you can generally find raw copies that get 10s if you look hard enough. I’m up to 70 PSA 10 alt arts currently and graded 69 of those myself.

Maybe that’s your assumption to sell for more money down the line, that’s not mine. I’m not sure what you collect, let’s say shadowless base set. Did you buy those planning to sell for more later. They could go to zero and id still enjoy the art. I don’t see that happening though, I don’t care what the pop gets to there’s just to many people that want them currently. I could see them dropping if something new comes out that’s better, but don’t think the PSA 10 will ever drop under what I got these for raw

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Please please tell me :face_holding_back_tears:

Do you want to form a coalition to try to stop this thing?

I will support your efforts from the shadows.

I’ll start the movement by reminding everyone. The GREATEST eeveeloution card every released is this :point_down:t2:

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Of course prices are justified. Look at the price of a box (36 packs) and consider the actual pull rates (1/600-1/800 packs for an alt art). If anything, the single cards are undervalued compared to the price of sealed boxes.

I’ve never noticed the stanky leg on that Jolteon

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He’s bowlegged :rofl:. @Tyranids the box prices are that high because of the umbreon. Look at Ancient Orgins and Fusion strike that also have some cards on the same level with the umbreon. Those box prices aren’t 600 per box. The only reason the card is fetching for what it is is because of hype, first good umbreon art in modern, whatnot, YouTubers, and people that scream ā€œLETS GOOOOO!ā€ when they pull a random V. The pull rates may be harder than other sets but there is no shortage of the card. It’s been graded by every company under the sun. There’s over 11k graded a 10 and over 2k graded a 9 just by PSA. I remember when older, minter, rarer meant better. Any card can go up drastically in place all behind hype. Remember that ghastly a month or so ago. Same thing with the Ray and Giratina. There’s nothing rare about the card or special. The price goes higher and the PSA 10 pop goes higher. Normally the higher the PSA 10 pop the lower the card goes. There’s nothing wrong with the card or anything but the hype behind it and the market behind it makes zero sense to me

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I believe the market has correctly priced these cards given demand and supply.

It begs the question what the price would have to reach before I no longer would buy and I haven’t considered that.

Many of us have convictions about the pokemon card market and its submarkets that are based more on intuition than reasoned analysis, but it reads like you’ve concluded that unless prices reach some hypothetical unknown high, ā€œwhatever current market price isā€ is the ā€œcorrect priceā€ for modern PSA 10 alt arts which is circular.

ā€œAre modern prices justifiedā€ has been a question on here since probably early 2020. In one sense, absolutely these prices are justified. You have a huge amount of people who are motivated modern collectors, and who are spending large amounts of money. Modern collecting is the most important reason for why the Pokemon hobby is as healthy as it is right now. I think a lot of us who have been around for awhile are skeptical of modern cards because of their sheer print numbers and how different the market feels now compared to even 4-5 years ago. However, most of the new fans that are getting into Pokemon are getting into modern, not vintage.

A good anecdotal example is my girlfriend. She’s the same age as me, obviously knows about Pokemon since release but was never really into it. But her family and I are fans, so she’s gotten interested over time. Her most wanted cards are all SWSH special arts, especially Moonbreon and Gengar VMAX alt art. She thinks vintage is boring.

The dynamics have changed. It isn’t just kids getting interested in cards anymore, where we need to wait 20 years for the kids to grow up, get disposable income, and then buy the cards up again. Interested adult collectors with deep pockets are driving modern prices. If that dynamic keeps up, I see no reason why modern cards, especially the most desirable, won’t be extremely strong in the long-term.

That being said, these modern prices are predicated on the highest level of demand which Pokemon has ever seen, perhaps save for the original Base Set release. The print numbers are massive. I would say that modern is much more risky than vintage, because if the market dynamics shift again and demand decreases, modern is more susceptible to this.

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:100:

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I can’t stop thinking that since you mentioned it. I can’t stop seeing it :rofl::rofl:

Wait until you see the whiskers being in front of the paw

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