This is exactly what you do. And then you can color correct to change the shirt if needed. Airrack does this A/B testing thumbnails and same with Me Beast.
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Something I’ve been asking myself is "What was a solid chunk of money to spend on a card in 2016-2019? I would say $75 was a solid amount to spend on a card. You could get a PSA 9 of most WOTC cards, sometimes 2. Or a cool vintage Japanese promo. We could disagree about the price, buts its probably within $50 of that and there was a clear distinction in cards that exceeded this price. I would almost never doubt the value of a card that was able to clear $75. Usually, a card that cleared this price was an awesome card that I wanted or respected.
What is the new threshold that cards clear to be in demand? I’m not sure. With the volume of graded PSA 10 modern cards clearing $50 and $100, it seems impossible for the threshold to be below that. It seems like collectors are very reluctant to sell their vintage below that price. Why would you sell a vintage PSA 9 for Leafeon Lv X for $55 when you can sell a modern PSA 10 for $90? Honestly, most vintage Japanese DP sells for well under $75 PSA 9!!! I even buy vintage Japanese Ex for under $75. But the reality is supply has increased for these kind of cards in the past 3 years and that is their market value. It’s been hard personally for me to reconcile with the fact that modern PSA 9s and PSA 10s of readily available mint cards beat out Japanese DP.
Honestly, I’m never clear when I am posting about market talk but do you guys get where I’m coming from?
Side points:
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I’ve always wondered why collector’s double or triple their cost basis in collecting modern when they can save 20%-90% buying raw. That never made sense to me and anyone who started a business with a long-term goal based on that model should’ve seen this coming.
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I think the freshness of alt arts is dying. Personally, I don’t really get excited to see what Pokémon get an alt art in the new set. They’ve become normal.
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This has been a great thread and pretty much everything I want to add has been said. To add something though I really feel that all things considered Pokemon is in a really solid spot compared to what many other markets have done the past couple years. I mean at least in the past year or so if you bought a popular desirable card you at least broke even or possibly even made some money on it depending on the auction block. I think this still beats losing your shirt in cryptos or some stock, many of which have gotten crushed due to the economy and rising borrowing costs and other risks.
So many people have scaled back and taken money off the table to raise capital for other expenses and cost of living that people just aren’t throwing money at many things like they were before and it’s been a shock to many people since we got used to the unsustainable returns in Pokemon and other markets.
In the end, collectibles are luxury goods. We don’t really “need” Pokemon cards. The financial value ultimately comes down to what someone is willing to pay, but this can apply to anything in life and that’s good to keep in mind. I think it’s important to just enjoy these cards and take advantage of stagnation and slow times and build your collection up. I’m glad I was able to scoop up some deals in 2022 and this year at prices I would have dreamed of in 2020 or 2021 and I think it’s good to always remember that we’re going to have many high and low waves to ride on at times 
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In all seriousness I appreciate the way you laid everything out. I think a lot of us ‘feel’ the same but to articulate everything so comprehensively and succinctly isn’t easy.
I started typing out my thoughts but it became very long and repeated some of what has already been said. Maybe if I can refine it 
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Still, you can see the average is higher than 2019, way higher. Not to mention pre 2019.
And as most have stated, i think the vast majority of users here navigated wisely or least not as fatal during these cycles of hype.
Personally, all of the cards im interested in buying have grown in value compared to 2016-2019 and ive been selling all my modern (regular set) stuff into the hype due to how unsustainable and artificial were those prices.
Also i think it’s pretty important to separate sealed and singles because i think sealed product is much better to “tank” the storm (except the ultra modern stuff).
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Yeah the new avg will be miles above 2019 across the board I think.
But I also wouldn’t exactly say vintage sealed is immune. If the best cards have dropped like 75% (which many of them have) in mint grades then I struggle to think the sealed market will be unchanged. A lot of the stuff is hoarded by investors not collectors. Depends on how strong they decide to be. I’ve already seen box breaks have a hard time selling out lately. Normally I’d say that vintage sealed should have a massive premium over the singles inside, however Pokemon is weird and I’d argue 80%+ of the sealed buyers market is rippers. It is not collectors. If rippers can’t make money boxes will drop no question in my mind. Overall they’ll be more stable than singles for sure, but there is also a weird thought process (cope?) From some that sealed is immune to retracement
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Yeah you are right but i was mostly focused on saying that if you were buying before 2020 you shouldnt even be worried with any trend or price fluctuation these past 3 years because either way you should be positive.
And i really really doubt we will ever get to those 2014-2018 prices due to several reasons, it is not impossible but extremely unlikely.
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Ah yeah true. Anything before 2020 is safe imo. I think stuff bought since then is uncertain. Not guaranteed either way. It’s very very likely that a ton of vintage stuff will literally never reach 2022 peaks again
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I agree, no reason the average after the bubble bursts can’t be higher than the pre bubble average - in fact it usually is. Pokemon has a solid foundation so some level of organic annual growth in demand / interest is to be expected. Just nowhere near the stratospheric highs achieved during the bubble.
My comment about dumb money etc wasn’t really pointed at members of this forum. It was targeted at the folks who saw dollar signs during the frenzy and got involved to chase. Chasers are part of the bubble cycle in every market, you know “buy high, sell low” etc. They contribute heavily to the inevitable collapse from highs. This forum is a tiny outlier fraction of the pokemon market as a whole, and I imagine most here are doing fine.
Traditionally sealed holds price better than singles, but as @wisewailmer noted the pokemon market is in a weird place with sealed because of all the people (notably, influencers) opening boxes. That’s going to have some impact down the line, but it’s hard to say how that will play out.
I also love @wisewailmer’s point about the copium you see amongst pokemon “investors” because it’s the exact same behavior you see from bagholders in the equities market. Just goes to show that a lot of human tendency is the same no matter the market.
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Say what you will this has been great time to work with LCS.
They are making trades they normally wouldn’t just to move product and see what sticks.
Also a good time to load up on Lp / NM binder cards at steal prices IMO.
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a lot of vinatge singles are very attractive rn. idk if theyll go lower but still they seem good to me
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If you collect Charizard you will never be sad- Jaws
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What is a PWGFH Promo?
Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat, Van Gogh Pikachu
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I think these are all good points. I haven’t been paying too much attention to the market lately, as I really haven’t been making any purchases (outside of in-person events), but this all makes sense to me. I appreciate the analysis and the information presented. I’d love to have buying power in a buyers market, and I think a lot of other people would, too, so this might not be a bad thing for said buyers, but is it a bad thing for the hobby? Hmm, I can’t say yet, but I think it might be nice to filter out some of the people who are only looking to stonk and have no organic interest in the hobby (not that I want people to lose a bunch of money). Also, I know there are an incredible amount of players right now, so potentially we are seeing a different ratio between collectors and players (though some of us are both). That being said, more of my funds go toward playing TCGs (One Piece and Pokémon) than collecting right now…
All I know is that if we could skip the mystery boxes, it’d be OK with me 
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Unfortunately I think this is an unavoidable step in the “grieving” process for many large scale investor/flippers who have monster inventories. I don’t wanna name names, but it’s pretty obvious
Damn near every “influencer” with 50 followers has their own mystery box. If they don’t have one rn, they’re in the works…
That being said, keep an eye out for the whale box it’s different from all the rest!
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Ahh never saw it shortened. Thank you!
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If prices are dropping then bring it on. If I can pick up more stuff off my wanted list at cheaper and cheaper prices than I will not complain. It was horrible to be continuing with my collecting goals during the big boom a few years ago and having everything shoot up.
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I think most people here would agree with that but the point is when is it actually time to buy? Lower can continue to get lower basically forever. (Not saying Pokemon will or that that is my expectation). But people getting cards in the last year for 50% off bubble price are also now down 50% in many cases. Losses beget losses which begets more selling.
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